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Post by williamtsherman on Feb 23, 2019 20:10:48 GMT -6
OK, it's almost March and here we go with the excitement! We had a small setback today, but we are still very much alive in the race for the MAC 8 seed!!! and a home game!! Thank goodness we didn't get all impatient! Thank goodness we allowed Jim "One Win" Whitford the chance to "build the program" to the point where we can compete at this level! Thank goodness the wise and steady hand of the athletic dept. heeded the "supportive" fans with their numerous and awesome excuses. Where would we be now if we didn't extend One Win Whitford?
We are currently tied with NIU for 9th at 5-9.
But here are our targets for taking over the 8 spot:
*Miami is alone in 8th at 6-8. Unfortunately, the first tie breaker is head-to-head and....uh....well, we lost to Miami twice. Bad luck, that. So, Miami is, in effect 1.5 games up on us with 4 to go. By no means insurmountable with the March wizardry of Jimmy One Win. Miami travels to BG and has Buffalo at home yet.
*A little further up is Eastern and Akron tied at the 6/7 spot at 7-7. We have beaten Akron, so there is another team that effectively has a 1.5 game lead on us. The situation with Eastern is more complicated. They have beaten us, but we play them again. If EMU wins that game, the tie breaker is probably moot because they will almost certainly finish ahead of us in the standings. But if we beat them, AND end up tied with them, we will have split head-to-head and may go through multiple levels of tie breakers. BSU and EMU have both lost to Buffalo and lost to BG and beaten Toledo. The tie breaker could go to record vs. 4th place team...which could be any one of several teams. Didn't I tell you things were getting exciting here in Whitford year 6?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2019 23:37:38 GMT -6
Someone on the MAC message board has "crunched" (bolded) numbers for the rest of the season with the following projected outcome; as a reminder, this is just based upon speculative wins and losses, in otherwords, guesswork. That withstanding, Ball State potentially finishing conference play with a 7-11 record is rather sobering.
Numbers have been crunched to include 2/23 games, updated projections for the tourney.
First Round byes
#1 Buffalo 16-2 #2 Bowling Green 13-5 #3 Toledo 12-6 #4 Central Michigan 11-7
First Round Campus Site Games
#12 Western Michigan 3-15 @ #5 Kent State 10-8 #11 Ohio 5-13 @ #6 Akron 9-9 #10 Northern Illinois 7-11 @ #7 Eastern Michigan 8-10 #9 Ball State 7-11 @ #8 Miami-OH 7-11
Teams in the running to win the MAC tourney
1. Buffalo 73% 2. Toledo 15% 3. Bowling Green 5% 4. Central Michigan 2% 5. Kent State 2% 6. Ball State 1% 7. Akron 1%
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Post by bsutrack on Feb 24, 2019 2:24:29 GMT -6
Someone on the MAC message board has "crunched" (bolded) numbers for the rest of the season with the following projected outcome; as a reminder, this is just based upon speculative wins and losses, in otherwords, guesswork. That withstanding, Ball State potentially finishing conference play with a 7-11 record is rather sobering. Numbers have been crunched to include 2/23 games, updated projections for the tourney.
First Round byes
#1 Buffalo 16-2 #2 Bowling Green 13-5 #3 Toledo 12-6 #4 Central Michigan 11-7
First Round Campus Site Games
#12 Western Michigan 3-15 @ #5 Kent State 10-8 #11 Ohio 5-13 @ #6 Akron 9-9 #10 Northern Illinois 7-11 @ #7 Eastern Michigan 8-10 #9 Ball State 7-11 @ #8 Miami-OH 7-11
Teams in the running to win the MAC tourney
1. Buffalo 73% 2. Toledo 15% 3. Bowling Green 5% 4. Central Michigan 2% 5. Kent State 2% 6. Ball State 1% 7. Akron 1%This is probably the worst possible scenario. Even if BSU wins at Miami (Ohio), they would play Buffalo in the first game in Cleveland. It would be much better, IMHO, to finish #10 or #11 and play the first game @ Eastern Michigan or @ Akron. If BSU won either game at least the first game in Cleveland would be against Bowling Green or Toledo. In other words, BSU appears to be better off finishing 6-12 instead of 7-11.
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Post by cardfan on Feb 24, 2019 10:02:39 GMT -6
And it seems doubtful we’d beat Miami at Miami.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2019 10:10:04 GMT -6
Teams in the running to win the MAC tourney
1. Buffalo 73% 2. Toledo 15% 3. Bowling Green 5% 4. Central Michigan 2% 5. Kent State 2% 6. Ball State 1% 7. Akron 1%
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Post by williamtsherman on Feb 28, 2019 12:59:29 GMT -6
I'm coming around to the idea that BSU will have to win out the last three games to get a tourney 1st round home game. This may not be literally, absolutely true...there ARE ways to lose a game and still finish 8th, but I think that would involve some very unlikely combination of events.
BSU has 5 wins and 3 to play, meaning a max possible 8 wins. This obviously puts any team currently with 9+ wins out of our reach. this leaves the following mini standing:
akron 7-8 Miami 7-8 emu 7-8 niu 6-9 bsu 5-10 ou 4-11 wmu 2-13
A team would have to finish in the top 3 of that group to get a home game. So, in effect, BSU is currently 2 games behind SOME team that they have to finish ahead of... with three games to go. So any loss in these last three games is a near back-breaker. You CAN concoct scenarios where BSU loses a game and still prevails in a tie-breaker for 8th, but they are quite involved and quite unlikely (Akron being the most likely victim).
I don't know about you guys, but I'm on pin and needles thinking about 8th place tie-breakers here in Whitford year 6. Yes indeed, he "built the program" just like the "supportive" fans said he would.
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Post by realitycheck on Feb 28, 2019 15:18:43 GMT -6
I'm coming around to the idea that BSU will have to win out the last three games to get a tourney 1st round home game. This may not be literally, absolutely true...there ARE ways to lose a game and still finish 8th, but I think that would involve some very unlikely combination of events.
BSU has 5 wins and 3 to play, meaning a max possible 8 wins. This obviously puts any team currently with 9+ wins out of our reach. this leaves the following mini standing:
akron 7-8 Miami 7-8 emu 7-8 niu 6-9 bsu 5-10 ou 4-11 wmu 2-13
A team would have to finish in the top 3 of that group to get a home game. So, in effect, BSU is currently 2 games behind SOME team that they have to finish ahead of... with three games to go. So any loss in these last three games is a near back-breaker. You CAN concoct scenarios where BSU loses a game and still prevails in a tie-breaker for 8th, but they are quite involved and quite unlikely (Akron being the most likely victim).
I don't know about you guys, but I'm on pin and needles thinking about 8th place tie-breakers here in Whitford year 6. Yes indeed, he "built the program" just like the "supportive" fans said he would. If we win the next three in a row, you can bet the farm that Kid, 00hmh and Rusty are booking a suite at the Cleveland Marriott and icing down some bubbly for the tourney run.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 1, 2019 10:28:42 GMT -6
I'm coming around to the idea that BSU will have to win out the last three games to get a tourney 1st round home game. If we win the next three in a row, you can bet the farm that Kid, 00hmh and Rusty are booking a suite at the Cleveland Marriott and icing down some bubbly for the tourney run. Sounds like a plan. Beats hanging your head and mumbling over cheap beer in Muncie about the good old days, and predicting losses in the MAC tourney.
Nothing against cheap beer.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Mar 1, 2019 13:46:02 GMT -6
If we win the next three in a row, you can bet the farm that Kid, 00hmh and Rusty are booking a suite at the Cleveland Marriott and icing down some bubbly for the tourney run. Sounds like a plan. Beats hanging your head and mumbling over cheap beer in Muncie about the good old days, and predicting losses in the MAC tourney.
Nothing against cheap beer.
I really wish I could find some people to drink cheap beer and mumble.. I strive to be Norm
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Mar 1, 2019 14:08:40 GMT -6
Sounds like a plan. Beats hanging your head and mumbling over cheap beer in Muncie about the good old days, and predicting losses in the MAC tourney.
Nothing against cheap beer.
I really wish I could find some people to drink cheap beer and mumble.. I strive to be Norm It's a dog-eat-dog world out there and I'm wearing Milkbone underwear.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2019 18:36:53 GMT -6
BSU has 6 wins and 2 to play, meaning a max possible 8 wins. This obviously puts any team currently with 9+ wins out of our reach. this leaves the following mini standing: Emu 8-8 Akron 7-9 Miami 7-9 niu 6-10 bsu 6-10 ou 5-11 wmu 2-14
A team would have to finish in the top 3 of that group to get a home game. So, in effect, BSU is currently 1 game behind SOME team that they have to finish ahead of...with two games to go. So any loss in these last two games is a near back-breaker. You CAN concoct scenarios where BSU loses a game and still prevails in a tie-breaker for 8th, but they are quite involved and quite unlikely (Akron being the most likely)
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Post by williamtsherman on Mar 2, 2019 19:36:27 GMT -6
Akron losing to OU was a very favorable result for BSU. Not only lost, but got crushed...I think I saw they were down 30 at one point in the first half. What's up with that?
The good thing about a battle for 8th seed is that you can rely on your rival teams to lose often. It's unlike contending for a championship in that way.
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Post by cardfan on Mar 2, 2019 19:43:41 GMT -6
So we’re in an exciting battle for the 8th seed? Drama at the end of a season at long last!
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Post by bsutrack on Mar 2, 2019 20:39:31 GMT -6
So we’re in an exciting battle for the 8th seed? Drama at the end of a season at long last! Great and the winner of the 9th vs 8th seed gets to play #1 seed Buffalo in the second round in Cleveland. Is that really winning?
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Post by thebsukid on Mar 2, 2019 23:07:40 GMT -6
I’d love to play Buffalo in the first round in Cleveland
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