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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 16, 2019 9:33:26 GMT -6
I see this concept currently cropping up in the football forum, but I didn't want to post this there because I'm not interested in focusing on Neu. Instead, I wanted to note how terrible of an idea this is in any sport. There is probably no idea that better exemplifies an acceptance of mediocrity and excuses, and a general attitude of failure, than this. Has there EVER, even one time in the history of the world, been a case where this strategy actually worked? In other words, a case where a coach was underperforming to the extent that his job was in some jeopardy, but he was given an extension, which saved his recruiting, and then he went on to success? Does that seem like a likely sequence to you? Rather, I would guess that in nearly, or actually, 100% of these cases, the extension simply led to additional years of underperformance by a failing coach.
If you just think about it, this strategy is not likely to work for a quality recruit This recruit is likely to sense your coach is underperforming. Is he going to think "Sure this coach is underperforming, but the extension means he will be around for four years, so I want to sign with him"? Of course not. If you want recruits like this, you need to get a coach who is NOT underperforming. They don't want a weak coach who is guaranteed to be around...they want a strong coach.
And also, the type of Plan B recruits that your underperforming coach is likely to sign probably don't particularly care that your coach gets the extension. They are "blessed" just to get an offer from a school at your level anyway.
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Post by sweep on Sept 16, 2019 9:50:34 GMT -6
Don't disagree, and Fred Glass is currently negotiating a contract extension with Archie Miller to "retain continuity". I guess that's the reason you give when said coach's team is picked to finish tenth in their conference.
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Post by frozenbaugh on Sept 16, 2019 11:13:05 GMT -6
When I put what I put, it was just an alternative. I don't sign the checks. Was Schudel (before my time) the last coach everyone thought was successful?
Lembo is not a head coach anymore for good reason.
Stan Parrish.
Brady Hoke was probably not going to coach much longer if not for 2008.
Bill Lynch.
We're all relying on the Ball State powers that be to make a great coaching hire. Good luck with that.
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Post by redbirdman on Sept 16, 2019 11:38:21 GMT -6
I agree with u sherman & also feel Miller is facing trouble because IU fans see IU as the top of the pyramid in the BT (false). We should be able to find a good BB coach but after 20 yrs of failure I question the people who make the selection & giving of the extensions.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Sept 16, 2019 12:12:27 GMT -6
When I put what I put, it was just an alternative. I don't sign the checks. Was Schudel (before my time) the last coach everyone thought was successful? Lembo is not a head coach anymore for good reason. Stan Parrish. Brady Hoke was probably not going to coach much longer if not for 2008. Bill Lynch. We're all relying on the Ball State powers that be to make a great coaching hire. Good luck with that. Somtimes you make really good points |
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Post by 00hmh on Sept 16, 2019 12:16:05 GMT -6
The cost of buyout and lack of budget to seek quality staff along with the risks in the job market hiring a cheap HC are primarily what prevent Sherman's theory of using a " different" candidate pool solving all problems. Not that he makes much of a case that will work. Lembo was lower level, coming up to BSU. Lower than that he wants to try? D3? HS? Will that be a guy able to recruit?
Where he is right is that AD and President are risk averse. Talking big gamble is just talk. Isn't going to happen. Just another shoestring hire is what we will get.
Hell, we did that "different" thing with Neu, hiring a coach with no HC or any D1 coaching experience at this level. We have paid a price for his OJT, not having good staff, managerial ability, and no budget for staff.
Now, after OJT, maybe he's now ready? Maybe not...
But either way the option we should consider is using the buyout budget for hiring better staff for him. E.G. gamble by hiring a DC with some experience in D1 but not enough to seek HC positions yet.
Gamble with some dollars there. Not with Sherman's 2 year and out theory.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Sept 16, 2019 13:21:05 GMT -6
At a mid-major, your only hope of success is to catch lightning in a bottle.
That's hard to do. You need people in the decision-making positions that are savvy enough to see who can make that step up...and we don't seem to savvy much.
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Post by cardfan on Sept 16, 2019 13:26:46 GMT -6
Savvying is a struggle for us.
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 16, 2019 13:49:43 GMT -6
Yes, going the standard route has worked so well for us, we sure wouldn't want to rock the boat and gamble in any way, now would we? Any day now I expect some money will magically fall from the sky so that we can pull from the upper end of the standard coaching hire pool rather than the lower end. Yeah, best just to sit around and wait for that magic money shower, rather than try something new and innovative. And I think if the fanbase keeps up the continual whining about lack of money (a.k.a. "commitment") that is likely to bring that magic money shower more quickly.
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 16, 2019 14:12:14 GMT -6
I wouldn't have the slightest idea where to look for football coaching candidates. In the MAC, it's basically a moot point anyway because there is no possible coaching hire that could make a MAC program something other than a colossal waste of money. Whether you are losing games in a dead-end, money pit conference or winning games in a dead-end money pit conference is of interest only to a very limited group of followers, and you're going to lose $5-$10 million a year no matter what you do.
For basketball, after looking at a few success cases and thinking things through, I've become convinced that HS coaches are the pool to look at.
Here is another idea. Get together a bunch of 16 and 17 year old boys as part of your hiring process. Your coaching candidates will have the opportunity to make their pitch to this group. Have each kid rank the candidates and compile the results. I imagine you see where I'm going here. Given that recruiting is 75% of winning, why not see who has the ability to connect with and persuade teenage boys as part of your process?
Also, as you know, the self-confidence necessary to take a job with only a two year guarantee is a requirement. If you lack that kind of self-confidence, look elsewhere, thank you drive through. |
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Post by sweep on Sept 16, 2019 14:51:45 GMT -6
There are far more quality basketball coaches looking to move up than there are Division I jobs available at any given time. The entire argument about budget limitations is just an excuse only an idiot would make, especially considering we pay more than half the DI schools already.
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Post by 00hmh on Sept 16, 2019 15:14:10 GMT -6
I really meant to put that post on the FB board and will move it over there.
The 2 year argument for BB is better, I can agree. But it is not likely any AD will make that move. Every AD is going to be more conventional. They are gambling their career on looking very silly, and when the "good but cheap and unknown" coach doesn't produce in 2 years, what then?
Two years is silly. Recruiting is very unlikely to make an impact by then and the idea that a change in coaching is going to transform current players to winners doesn't hold water.
In a different era when Majerus came in, he was not an unknown at all. Not hired on a 2 year contract either. He did not transform the current players as much as he brought in some heavy artillery by transfer. Some of his recruiting I really wonder if he could do today. And, of course he was gone in 2. The great benefit of his stay may have been that Hunsaker was a very good assistant and was set up for long term success. I have always thought he was going to be a great longer term MAC coach and elevate our program with the boost he had from the Majerus magic hire.
That we fired him is probably a greater wrong to the Program than any subsequent poor hires. We completely overestimated the cheap hire of an assistant coach when we got very lucky with young Ray.
Majerus got a pretty good salary by the days standard, did not save us money and was hired on the cheap. In today's market, I doubt we would get him, not to mention that we could not hire such a good resume for a 2 year job. He'd have other choices.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2019 19:55:21 GMT -6
When I put what I put, it was just an alternative. I don't sign the checks. Was Schudel (before my time) the last coach everyone thought was successful? Lembo is not a head coach anymore for good reason. Stan Parrish. Brady Hoke was probably not going to coach much longer if not for 2008. Bill Lynch. We're all relying on the Ball State powers that be to make a great coaching hire. Good luck with that. Re-post from Aug. 25th You know......we really haven’t had a consistently “good” football coach since 1977. 1977!!!!! That is 42 freaking years ago. Dave McLain won 79% of his games. Paul Schudel won 55%. I’m with Sherm, offer a young, new guy a 2-3 year opportunity and see where it takes you. It CAN’T be worse than our “search” process keeps giving us. Read more: overthepylon.boards.net/thread/2841/wait#ixzz5zk7Dfhjb |
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 16, 2019 20:19:49 GMT -6
The 2 year argument for BB is better, I can agree. But it is not likely any AD will make that move. Every AD is going to be more conventional. They are gambling their career on looking very silly, and when the "good but cheap and unknown" coach doesn't produce in 2 years, what then? Two years is silly. Recruiting is very unlikely to make an impact by then and the idea that a change in coaching is going to transform current players to winners doesn't hold water. Football probably takes at least one year longer, I don't know, I haven't looked at it, but two years is not silly at all for basketball as an evaluation period. Two years is a long time. You can look at what the team has accomplished relative to the talent level left by the previous coach. You can get a pretty good read on recruiting. Who did we out-recruit for what recruits? If you're not recruiting well your first two years, why should you be expected to magically improve your persuasive abilities from that point forward? Maybe somebody can name a coach who underperformed with the talent he was left and recruited poorly his first two years, then became a success? If you can't name any, then maybe you should reevaluate your idea of wasting 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 years waiting for a coach to produce. Seems to me we've wasted quite enough years on that bullshit. Back to my original topic - one thing for sure is that if a coach hasn't performed, the last thing you want to do is give him an extension so that he can supposedly turn around his poor recruiting. |
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Post by lmills72 on Sept 16, 2019 20:25:02 GMT -6
I think you've misunderstood the argument, and moving it from football (85 scholarships) to basketball (13 scholarships) does it a disservice.
I don't think anyone is arguing that the coaching quality is amazingly going to turn around with the extension and some type of recruiting boost. I do think that if you extend, the roster the next coach inherits likely will be of a better quality and hopefully not require a better coach 2 seasons of recruiting to rebuild.
And that's different for football and basketball.
Whitford could not recruit anybody for the next two years and the coach you replace him with is still going to inherit Thomas, Huggins, Hendriks, Acree, Bumbalough, Kroft and Coleman. Hell, that's seven players, which is all some teams will play 95% of the time anyway. And as you've noted before, it shouldn't take a good basketball coach long to pump up a sub-par roster.
Do you think the same holds true for football? What do you think the football roster would look like if Neu doesn't recruit anyone for 2 years?
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