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Post by cardfan on Oct 30, 2019 10:27:29 GMT -6
Not sure why you’d say Lester will be pass first. The season stats show Wmu has gained more yardage by rushing vs passing and they’ve scored twice as many TD’s rushing vs passing.
Bellamy will get 150+ yards and 3 TD on us. That’s what he does. He’s over 1000 yards and has 17 TD. With 3 games left. He’s a potential POY.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Oct 30, 2019 10:47:43 GMT -6
There not going to run the option but Bellamy is a beast and they are going to run him alot. They will pass some because that's what they do but I'd expect more Bellamy than normal and that's not necessarily a good thing for us
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Post by frozenbaugh on Oct 31, 2019 6:30:50 GMT -6
Well, WMU is 5-0 at home and 0-4 on the road. After the BSU game, they have their final games on the road while Ball State has 2 of 3 at home. You're saying 2 must-win road games against pretty good opponents is easier (when they haven't won a road game yet) than having 2 of 3 at home? The only positive I can see is they have one less game. Both teams have a potentially hard schedule. That much is true. Ours is no easier.
The key is the head to head game at their place. If we win, we clearly are in the drivers seat.
BUT. If we lose that one, we are a game behind in the win column and they have the tie breaker. I sure don't see it as easier for us to win all 3 than for them to win 2.
We can win 2 of 3 games to reach 5-3. That may be 50-50, maybe a little better. They then need only 1 win in 2 games to reach 5-3. Ohio is a tough out with a lot to play for, I agree. NIU? They have a good chance in both, favorites I bet at NIU.
Massey ratings think Ball State has a better path as well. 93 WMU (6-6) 60% vs. Ball State 40% @ Ohio 46% @ NIU 95 Ball State (7-5) 31% @ WMU 71% vs. CMU 57% @ Kent 57% Miami
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Post by cardfan on Oct 31, 2019 6:47:58 GMT -6
I would take 7-5 every day of the week and 100 times on Sunday.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 31, 2019 8:11:53 GMT -6
Most current simulations, where the computer is unfamiliar with the CURSE, predict 6 wins, low probability for 7. If we lose at WMU, we are still well above 50-50 for 6 wins. But each loss magnifies the impact of negative mojo.
I would assume you believe we can find 1 win somewhere but are holding your water game by game on that prediction. The "cardfan simulation" algorithm is better suited for gauging the impact of the CURSE.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 31, 2019 8:15:32 GMT -6
Both teams have a potentially hard schedule. That much is true. Ours is no easier.
The key is the head to head game at their place. If we win, we clearly are in the drivers seat.
BUT. If we lose that one, we are a game behind in the win column and they have the tie breaker. I sure don't see it as easier for us to win all 3 than for them to win 2.
We can win 2 of 3 games to reach 5-3. That may be 50-50, maybe a little better. They then need only 1 win in 2 games to reach 5-3. Ohio is a tough out with a lot to play for, I agree. NIU? They have a good chance in both, favorites I bet at NIU.
Massey ratings think Ball State has a better path as well. 93 WMU (6-6) 60% vs. Ball State 40% @ Ohio 46% @ NIU 95 Ball State (7-5) 31% @ WMU 71% vs. CMU 57% @ Kent 57% Miami I don't want to bet on NIU beating them, OU should get the job done. I hope we play up to expectations on that 40% probability of beating them.
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Post by cardfan on Oct 31, 2019 8:17:52 GMT -6
The CURSE is real and it is not spectacular. What we don’t know is what will break the curse. What do we need to sacrifice to appease the football gods?
As much as 6 wins would actually be a let down of sorts I would also take it. Bowl eligible would be a a significant step back to having a successful program. Might not actually get a bid as was the case in Lembos first year, but it was a huge step.
Mike needs some validation for his program. We gotta go get it.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 31, 2019 10:58:36 GMT -6
The CURSE is real and it is not spectacular. What we don’t know is what will break the curse. What do we need to sacrifice to appease the football gods? As much as 6 wins would actually be a let down of sorts I would also take it. Bowl eligible would be a a significant step back to having a successful program. Might not actually get a bid as was the case in Lembos first year, but it was a huge step. Mike needs some validation for his program. We gotta go get it. At this point of course we have 4 wins and I will worry game by game about 5. Obviously not 100% we get there, but The CURSE will have to be working overtime to avoid it.
6 wins is a fair average estimate, but I have always thought it would be a cold night in November, maybe a cold senior night in November before we get there.
When I see a post by you talking about 7 wins, I get worried. Who is this guy, what did he do with cardfan?
It is Halloween, would be eerily appropriate for campus cops to look for a large body with strange footwear in the dumpster outside BL.
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Post by cardfan on Oct 31, 2019 11:33:46 GMT -6
The CURSE is real and it is not spectacular. What we don’t know is what will break the curse. What do we need to sacrifice to appease the football gods? As much as 6 wins would actually be a let down of sorts I would also take it. Bowl eligible would be a a significant step back to having a successful program. Might not actually get a bid as was the case in Lembos first year, but it was a huge step. Mike needs some validation for his program. We gotta go get it. At this point of course we have 4 wins and I will worry game by game about 5. Obviously not 100% we get there, but The CURSE will have to be working overtime to avoid it.
6 wins is a fair average estimate, but I have always thought it would be a cold night in November, maybe a cold senior night in November before we get there.
When I see a post by you talking about 7 wins, I get worried. Who is this guy, what did he do with cardfan?
It is Halloween, would be eerily appropriate for campus cops to look for a large body with strange footwear in the dumpster outside BL.
You never know. Mwahahahahahah
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 31, 2019 12:51:59 GMT -6
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Post by redfeather on Oct 31, 2019 15:38:18 GMT -6
This is a game everyone predicted as a loss. I don’t see that changing. Hoping for a competitive game that we have a chance at the end. I guess I need to know if Huntley and a few secondary guys will be ok. If not........ Ugly. Yeah, but on the other hand didn’t most think that the NIU and UT games were losses for sure going into them? That’s why I voted “who freak’n knows at this point??
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Post by rgmillikan on Oct 31, 2019 16:05:16 GMT -6
I think wmu wins by 11, 38-27, I could see Bellamy being a problem. Hopefully even if a loss as predicted they don't get completely rolled. A beatdown would raise concern for a possible November collapse.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Oct 31, 2019 17:23:09 GMT -6
This is a game everyone predicted as a loss. I don’t see that changing. Hoping for a competitive game that we have a chance at the end. I guess I need to know if Huntley and a few secondary guys will be ok. If not........ Ugly. Yeah, but on the other hand didn’t most think that the NIU and UT games were losses for sure going into them? That’s why I voted “who freak’n knows at this point?? Yes but both those were based on last year and early season games this year.. We know have a good sample size and several MAC games to look at. Last year does not matter anymore. If you have watched WMU the last couple weeks they have been rolling. I think the mac as a whole has shown us that anything can happen this year but going into WMU and coming out with a win is going to be tough
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2019 8:10:18 GMT -6
If BSU plays disciplined, error-free football, they have the talent to win these next games. Oooooooohhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm.
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Post by cardfan on Nov 2, 2019 11:00:02 GMT -6
Cmu having zero problem with NIU. I think Cmu wins the division.
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