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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2020 19:58:42 GMT -6
I have reservations about putting any stock in the Toledo game one way or the other and that goes back to last years Toledo game. We hammered them and ended up having a terrible MAC season. So who knows? As you say no single game or two predicts a season. A lot happened after the team that beat Toledo went on in the MAC season.
I agree that game is just one of many where we will have to prove ourselves. But it would be W, an important one we might need to exceed the somewhat gloomy predictions in this thread.
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jan 1, 2020 20:07:42 GMT -6
Toledo looks very beatable So do we
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Post by thebsukid on Feb 6, 2020 21:08:04 GMT -6
Well, we are 50% of the way through the MAC season; so maybe some of you would like to adjust your pre season predictions?
I believe 3 of us projected 11-7 which was the best record projected with many others suggesting 9-9 and even many others much worse!
If I was adjusting I’d say 12-6!!
Go Cards!
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Post by cardfan on Feb 6, 2020 21:32:29 GMT -6
Now kid, you know how easily we can go in the tank, because we do every year. But, with the way Teague is playing now things do look much better. If he can keep us on his back the rest of the way we have a chance. Winning at Kent was huge.
A physical team like Wmu is a problem and Niu with German will be tough for us.
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Post by thebsukid on Feb 6, 2020 22:44:22 GMT -6
Cardfan, I agree on every point! Let’s not go in the tank! I got a good feeling but I worry re every road game! I believe even WMU has a pretty good home MAC record! And, NIU to your point can be a tough game!
I believe though we’re trending right for a change..well let’s hope so
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Feb 7, 2020 6:26:28 GMT -6
Well, we are 50% of the way through the MAC season; so maybe some of you would like to adjust your pre season predictions? I believe 3 of us projected 11-7 which was the best record projected with many others suggesting 9-9 and even many others much worse! If I was adjusting I’d say 12-6!! Go Cards! Kid, which 3 games do you think we lose?
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Post by david75bsu on Feb 7, 2020 9:40:48 GMT -6
ESPN has the Cards favored in all remaining games. Sounds good, hard to think this will happen, but all things are possible.
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 7, 2020 9:52:09 GMT -6
ESPN has the Cards favored in all remaining games. Sounds good, hard to think this will happen, but all things are possible. Favored could mean 51% odds to win. I'd say that was optimistic in some of the road games. ESPN seems very optimistic.
Best simulations I see which assume no major injury or other issue would get us to 12-6.
We are slightly ahead of where I optimistically saw us preseason. And I saw KJ available all year and 2 out of 3 of Thomas, Kroft, Acree developing into kids who could play useful minutes.
Kid is not crazy to project 12-6, but as usual filled with boundless optimism.
The MAC is actually slightly stronger than we expected, and although I agree with him that our team is stronger than expected with Teague more consistent, our defense better than expected despite less depth. Still. Without getting Thomas and KJ going I am less optimistic today about our MAC tourney chances which I think hinge on using 8 or 9 players capable of 20 minutes good play and having an edge in the second and third game in Cleveland over strong opponents. We'll see.
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Post by cardfan on Feb 7, 2020 10:12:27 GMT -6
I do not think The MAC is as strong this year and if our team plays as well as it can and maintains the strong defense we can win the title, even with our flaws.
Or, we can fade like Whits teams do. But I’m not sure Teague will allow that this time.
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Post by david75bsu on Feb 7, 2020 10:20:08 GMT -6
There was only one game where we were favored by 51%, several in the sixties, others by wider margins.
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Post by thebsukid on Feb 7, 2020 10:28:21 GMT -6
While I'm be so optimistic, I would actually project 12-6 but 13-5 feasible. I'm not sure which games we'll lose Jackson Street as likely we lose one we should win and possibly and win won possibly we should lose.
But, we are seeing more optimism from board members who are all long overdue for a good run...
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 7, 2020 10:32:47 GMT -6
I do not think The MAC is as strong this year and if our team plays as well as it can and maintaining the strong defense we can win the title, even with our flaws. Or, we can fade like Whits teams do. But I’m not sure Teague will allow that this time. It may be down from a very good year last. But a lot of that difference is that there is no juggernaut like Buffalo last year or Akron a few years ago.
The other hard thing to read is when they are bad, the bad teams are maybe worse than recent years! But all the teams seem less predictable. And overall the middle teams 3-7 are all up a notch I think. Every team has had a good game or two. Sagarin says the MAC is not down all that much.
That all adds up to us having better chances to hold home court, and a chance in most road games. But I can't say going into any of the road games I feel we can get away with a less than good game. That defense plus a home crowd seems to give us an edge against any opponent. But we just don't have the offense to run people out of the gym on a given night. A few years ago it seemed we had a chance to out shoot any opponent and beat them, I sure don't see that this year...
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Post by cardfan on Feb 7, 2020 10:42:31 GMT -6
No, our offense isn’t going to win us many games. It’s cost us a couple games. That defense does winning things though. The question will be, can we score enough to win on a night the defense isn’t as good?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2020 14:38:51 GMT -6
The euphoria is contagious and certainly an annual expectation.
A gentle reminder (if my memory is somewhat accurate), Ball State has had 3 winning MAC records in Whit’s previous 6 years of head coaching.
I’m pretty sure our MAC tournament record in those 3 years is a staggering 1 win 3 losses.
Based upon the miserable tournament failures we’ve experienced in MULTIPLE years and MULTIPLE sports with extraordinary regular season records ........
....it’s become increasingly difficult to crawl up on any championship choo choo
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Post by thebsukid on Feb 7, 2020 14:41:45 GMT -6
Our D is damn good and with KJ even better.
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