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Post by gjquest on Oct 25, 2015 20:33:53 GMT -6
Ken Pomeroy rankings just came out .... He has Ball State at 184 , they ended up at 277 last year , also he has Ball State 16 - 14 overall , and 8 - 10 in the Mac and finishing 9th .....
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 26, 2015 8:14:14 GMT -6
Did the Kid hack his way into Kenpom's system?
I wonder what it was in his system that bumped us up almost a hundred spots? All I can figure is that he is giving us credit for returning most of the players playing the most minutes at the end of the year.
Last year, our final offensive rank was 260th and defense 254th.
To start this year he has our offense at 167 and our defense at 209.
Maybe the subraction of Turner, who had a horrible offensive effeciency rating last year, is bumping up our offense? (I sort of feel that way myself)
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Post by thebsukid on Oct 26, 2015 12:18:35 GMT -6
My 15 is looking pretty good boys....but I actually think 19 or more is a real possibility.
This team is going to surprise many people.
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Post by gjquest on Oct 26, 2015 15:14:22 GMT -6
Just a quick follow up ... supposedly he doesn't include transfers to start the season ....
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Post by lmills72 on Oct 26, 2015 15:38:52 GMT -6
I suspect KenPom is bankrolling the kid on all those bets he made.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 26, 2015 17:43:25 GMT -6
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Post by bsu0 on Oct 26, 2015 19:20:53 GMT -6
MY EAGLE RARE IS SAFE GENTLEMEN.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 26, 2015 19:46:10 GMT -6
That's the spirit, so to speak.
But, KenPom is pretty good, it looks like it will be a bet that isn't settled until well into the season.
Probably, his ratings project Tyler and other players who had injuries from time to time to play a full season. And I think the preseason initial ratings do not include newcomers, where we will be helped. I suppose there may be other teams with good players coming in, but we really suffered from lack of depth, more than other teams in the MAC. And, if he adjusts returning players up a little that is reasonable to expect, our players from last year should have benefited from experience and the off season.
So, I don't know if it is "SAFE." 15-16 wins seems like a good chance.
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Post by bsu0 on Oct 26, 2015 19:56:15 GMT -6
As I said when I made the bet I hope I am wrong. But when one thinks of a 15 win season following a 17 game losing streak would be the equal of the teenager Jesus turning water into wine, I feel safe. Wait a minute...we aren't playing a 82 game season are we?
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Post by bsu0 on Oct 27, 2015 6:01:44 GMT -6
Remember Kid, wins over the School for the Blind and Mother Teresa's Home for Wayward Girls are exhibitions and DO NOT count in the win total.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 27, 2015 6:43:55 GMT -6
This bet may be as much fun to watch as the season! You are sure it is "SAFE?" Sounds like you are not so sure...anyway, I don't see those teams on the schedule.
The kid has a fighting chance on this bet. It won't be a historic season, but maybe we'll all celebrate the 15th win late in the season, maybe even in the MAC tourney, it could come down to that.
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 27, 2015 9:56:41 GMT -6
Looking at some of the explanations of KenPom's preseason rankings, I think I was right in guessing that his system's forecast of a significantly improved offensive effeciency is due to us returning a lot of plalyers who played a lot and took a lot of our shots, and also that losing Turner actually factors in as a positive.
Sellers, House and Cahoun took the most shots of anyone last year, and they all return. Tyler took a lot of shots per-game-played and he returns. All these guys had respectable shooting percentages.
Turner shot 35% from the field and turned the ball over a ton - I tend to agree with KenPom's system in saying "Don't let the door hit your butt on the way out, Zavier."
Davis and Kipaway shot 33% and 37% respectively. I was never really sure what to expect out of Kiapway, but I certainly expected better than that from Davis.
One thing to remember about Kenpom's rankings is that they are RESULTS BASED. In the preseason, when there ARE no results, he just does the best he can with a common sense system, and I think he would be the first one to tell you that his mid-season rankings are much, much more valuable.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 27, 2015 12:49:49 GMT -6
...but I certainly expected better than that from Davis. One thing to remember about Kenpom's rankings is that they are RESULTS BASED. In the preseason, when there ARE no results, he just does the best he can with a common sense system, and I think he would be the first one to tell you that his mid-season rankings are much, much more valuable. Davis spent a lot of energy on defense. I think he benefits greatly if we have some more depth, and doesn't have to carry so much load ball handling on top of defense. He was really gassed at the end of some close games where we played hard all game. That hurt his offense where he sometimes can score with his strength going to the basket. You are right though, it does not look like he is really a scorer. He should improve a little. The good news is that it doesn't matter so much, adding Weber and getting Tyler back, he should not need to be much of a scorer. The one blog post I cited shows Ken likes the preseason ratings and thinks they should count something at mid season and even at the end, probably because they show "potential" even if not realized previously. That's sometimes a problem with well coached teams that reach their potential on a consistent basis. Not much upside I guess. I would not mind having that problem for a change.
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Post by thebsukid on Oct 27, 2015 15:53:00 GMT -6
00hmh....You make some good observations.....I'm already tasting the bourbon and smoking the cigars and whatever else I'm going to win!!!!
This is going to be so much fun!!! I hope Davis has improved otherwise with so many scorers he may lose playing time at the Point to Smith....Smith is a pure point guard and at 6'4 he sees the floor well, and does not seem to be turnover prone. Very likely we will have Sellers, Tyler, and Weber on the floor a lot...these guys can all score and Weber may be the best of them all!!!
Boy, am I going to enjoy this!!
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Post by bsu0 on Oct 27, 2015 17:23:32 GMT -6
''RELEASE THE HOUNDS''
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