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Post by frozenbaugh on Apr 23, 2020 11:31:57 GMT -6
I can certainly see a delay in starting the season by a couple of months. At the same time, this is all very fluid. A month ago, we were being told that we should shelter in for the summer and now economies are opening up.
Economy having a budget shortfall. Open up. Ohio University Buckeye football having a shortfall. Open up.
Think about how important Ohio football is important for the state. Or Texas or Clemson in terms of money. Elected officials want to be re-elected. They'll do it if they can.
That's simplistic but we're only in April.
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 23, 2020 12:05:29 GMT -6
Yes, it might make sense to open Elkhart County.
IF you can close it off from outside traffic...and IF you can test and contact trace every new infection. And IF you can keep the citizens there doing enough social distancing to keep transmission rate low. That action is why they have had so few problems.
Doing all that isn't exactly business as usual. It is going to require a great deal of vigilance and effort to open even partially.
And.
Doing most of those things to prevent a problem recurring might not be possible right now. We don't have the testing or the structure to trace. Without those we will see what happened when we had only 15 cases in the whole country. Then we have to close down again?
Our biggest problem is we lack knowledge about the virus. We lack ability to fight it except by mitigation after it is widespread. We are buying time and the best science says we need more time.
Saying all that is nice, but when you destroy the economy and there are no jobs to return too, not sure we haven’t taken things to far. I will say we need to remember some of these practices when flew season begins again this fall. I was probably guilty of going to work sick when I should have stayed home. Maybe this will help us learn to stay home and get well before we go out in the public. The problem is that we can't just wish it were different.
The economy is hurt, but trying to fix it by ignoring the health threat and acting too soon is fools gold. We get people back at work, for a while, but then have a second wave sooner, and worse. Back to square one...
Because we waited too long this time things are worse than they have to be, and it is going to take longer than it would have to get under control.
We are in the middle of this thing now, have to knock it down before any widespread opening is possible. Even where limited reopening is possible, we are not now ready to do that. We don't have testing and tracing and isolation plans in place. That is why the Trump White House has issued guidelines and is criticizing the Georgia governor today.
Those rules are probably optimistic and too bold, but at least we are back in the real world, not pretending there is no problem.
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Post by williamtsherman on Apr 23, 2020 12:25:25 GMT -6
I can certainly see a delay in starting the season by a couple of months. At the same time, this is all very fluid. A month ago, we were being told that we should shelter in for the summer and now economies are opening up. Economy having a budget shortfall. Open up. Ohio University Buckeye football having a shortfall. Open up. Think about how important Ohio football is important for the state. Or Texas or Clemson in terms of money. Elected officials want to be re-elected. They'll do it if they can. That's simplistic but we're only in April. No way in hell. You put 100k people in osu's stadium and you will have a sizable outbreak, with fatalities, directly attributable. Who is that going to reelect?
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Post by lmills72 on Apr 23, 2020 13:08:21 GMT -6
I can certainly see a delay in starting the season by a couple of months. At the same time, this is all very fluid. A month ago, we were being told that we should shelter in for the summer and now economies are opening up. Economy having a budget shortfall. Open up. Ohio University Buckeye football having a shortfall. Open up. Think about how important Ohio football is important for the state. Or Texas or Clemson in terms of money. Elected officials want to be re-elected. They'll do it if they can. That's simplistic but we're only in April. No way in hell. You put 100k people in osu's stadium and you will have a sizable outbreak, with fatalities, directly attributable. Who is that going to reelect? Let's see 100,000 people, maybe a 2% mortality rate. That leaves 98,000 satisfied Buckeye voters. And the 2,000 dissatisfied aren't voting anyway.
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Post by lmills72 on Apr 23, 2020 13:17:03 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2020 13:20:38 GMT -6
The hospitals all ran out of beds and ventilators and everything during this first wave, so it can only get worse. Not sure where you got that info, but that's not true at all. In the US, anyway, I don't know about other countries. (Unless you're being facetious...) sarcasm
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Post by david75bsu on Apr 23, 2020 15:06:58 GMT -6
Spectator sports is going to be one of the last things to come back. Putting thousands of people in close proximity to each other for 3+ hours is pretty much the worst thing you can do. Offices, factories, warehouses, hotels, schools, retail shopping....it will be easier AND much more necessary to figure out how to open up these things with reasonable risk before a vaccine. But getting back to normal spectator sports is a ways off. Get used to the idea.
Sorry, can’t.
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Post by williamtsherman on Apr 23, 2020 15:14:02 GMT -6
super spreader events
Interesting article. All things considered, a highly attended football game would make an excellent super spreader event, with outdoor venues being the only thing keeping them from perfection. Thinking more about this, there is almost no way full basketball seasons happen either.
Actually, though, we could have a situation where all sporting events are cancelled in 2020 except MAC football, because....well, you know.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Apr 23, 2020 15:18:28 GMT -6
You guys all know I want football back probably more than anyone but I just can not see it happening. No matter who you believe this virus is real and very contagious you just can not set people up for that
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Post by CallingBS on Apr 23, 2020 15:38:44 GMT -6
No way in hell. You put 100k people in osu's stadium and you will have a sizable outbreak, with fatalities, directly attributable. Who is that going to reelect? Let's see 100,000 people, maybe a 2% mortality rate. That leaves 98,000 satisfied Buckeye voters. And the 2,000 dissatisfied aren't voting anyway. Probably more like 100 people based on the studies coming out of multiple California universities...and that would assume there were 100 at-risk people there who indeed contracted it.
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Post by lmills72 on Apr 23, 2020 16:30:36 GMT -6
Let's see 100,000 people, maybe a 2% mortality rate. That leaves 98,000 satisfied Buckeye voters. And the 2,000 dissatisfied aren't voting anyway. Probably more like 100 people based on the studies coming out of multiple California universities...and that would assume there were 100 at-risk people there who indeed contracted it. See, even more reason not to worry. Only 100 dead and that's just old fogeys with pre-existing conditions of high blood pressure, obesity, COPD, and diabetes. Let's party people. Anyway, we'll kill the weak ones off after the first game or two, then we'll be death free the rest of the season. (Of course we'll keep the old fogeys who are high-level donors sequestered in the skyboxes with their own personal stashes of PPE.)
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Post by williamtsherman on Apr 23, 2020 17:20:49 GMT -6
I don't know what the age distribution at BSU football games is, but a WuFlu outbreak from a BSU basketball game might have a 95% mortality rate.
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 23, 2020 17:30:33 GMT -6
The President seems to think heat and light will make us well.
Who can worry about there being a second wave after a hot sunny Indiana Summer?
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Post by bsutrack on Apr 23, 2020 18:13:08 GMT -6
New York Gov. Cuomo just released a study finding 13.9% of all New Yorkers have antibodies for Covid-19 and 21.2% in New York City. That's a pool of 2.7 million New Yorkers who could be available to attend sporting events. Could be the same or more in other major cities and states by the end of the summer. How many 20 to 40 year-olds with a positive antibody test indicating they had resistance would be willing to attend a game risking a virus that kills 0.5% instead of the 0.1% that the common flu does (death rate based on the New York study and backed by two studies recently done in Los Angeles by USC and Santa Clara County, CA by Stanford University)? www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
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Post by rmcalhoun on Apr 23, 2020 18:22:15 GMT -6
I don't know what the age distribution at BSU football games is, but a WuFlu outbreak from a BSU basketball game might have a 95% mortality rate. Heavens waiting room
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