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Post by reevo on Feb 20, 2016 17:36:12 GMT -6
I am going to give you all a reason to not count your chickens before they are hatched scenario. We can go 2-2, which is probable and finish 11-7 and be awarded the 6th seed. How you might ask? Well I plotted out everyone's remaining schedule and predicted the outcomes of those games and here is our 6th seed scenario: Akron goes 4-0 and finishes 14-4 and earns the top seed. Ohio finaihes 3-1 and 12-6 overall and gets the 2 seed. Here is where it gets dicey for us, Buffalo finishes 3-1 and 11-7 overall. Kent goes 2-2 and finishes 11-7 overall, Toledo rolls the table and goes 4-0 to go 11-7 and we go 2-2 and finish 11-7. Tie Breaker for 3 or more teams would be winning percentage against the 4 teams tied. Buffalo would get the 3rd seed because they went 4-1 against Kent, BSU & Toledo. Toledo gets the 4 seed because there winning percentage 3-2 is better than BSU 1-3 and Kents 1-4. Now here is the sucky part, once you are down to two teams, Kent & BSU, Kent gets the 5th seed based on head to head not winning percentage against the others though they are 1-4 and we are 1-3. The moral of this story is that there is a whole lot of basketball that needs to be played and even though it looks good today, things can change drastically over the next 2 weeks. We really need to finish 3-1 to feel good about our chances in the tournament.
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Post by cardsfan606 on Feb 20, 2016 17:41:40 GMT -6
Toledo game is gong to be big
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Post by BSU Card Fan in AZ on Feb 20, 2016 17:46:30 GMT -6
Toledo game is gong to be big That will be a tall challenge. Good news is that the team knows that they can beat them. They are also playing well on the road of late.
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Post by swenocha on Feb 20, 2016 18:11:57 GMT -6
www.playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac/This page lets you easily play what-if with the remaining games. Just change the projected winner in any game and it will adjust the seedings... It seems to me based on my experiments thus far, a 3-1 record assures a bye, and anything lower does not.
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 20, 2016 18:33:10 GMT -6
We play who we play, but I don't like that 3 seed with a game against Toledo in their back yard after sitting around waiting for a game. I like another home game, sitting is sometimes a curse.
Not sure who among the top 4 or 5 teams we match up to best. If we are hot we can beat anyone except maybe Akron.
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Post by reevo on Feb 20, 2016 19:25:26 GMT -6
We don't match up well against Kent either and they are getting healthier. Same could be said for Ohio. Teams that have solid athletic bigs and athletic guards give us fits. I would pressure our point guards for 40 minutes. I am surprised we have not encountered ball pressure for 90 ft more often. Northern did a little but not consistently.
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Post by rusty on Feb 20, 2016 19:32:28 GMT -6
All the Cards need to do is play their game hard nosed D, rebound and grind it out. They control their fate by winning. I for one won't count them out. Since reevo is doing what ifs: what if BSU wins out and gets a 2 or 3?
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Post by universityjim on Feb 20, 2016 21:33:00 GMT -6
I think I like going into the tournament as a dark horse. Let Akron and Kent go in with the target on their backs. As wild as the regular season has been there are going to be upsets in the tournament. It should be very exciting. Who knows if any of those teams we don't match up well with will survive to play us. This is one of those years that just about any team can win the MAC Tournament and the team that gets hot at the right time is gonna be the champ.
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Post by swenocha on Feb 27, 2016 17:19:28 GMT -6
Miami has been huge for us this week. By them beating Kent today, BSU moves into the 3 seed behind Akron (but only one game behind because of Miami beating Akron) and whoever wins the UB/Ohio game (currently in OT). Of course, a lot can change between now and then, but BSU can control their destiny to a bye by just winning out.
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Post by cardfan on Feb 27, 2016 17:34:35 GMT -6
I do not want to play Miami again
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Post by swenocha on Feb 27, 2016 17:43:57 GMT -6
I do not want to play Miami again You don't want to play anyone, Herm...
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Post by cardfan on Feb 27, 2016 17:45:08 GMT -6
I do not want to play Miami again You don't want to play anyone, Herm... Especially Miami. Hard to beat a team 3 times. And you know, it's Miami.
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Post by thebsukid on Feb 27, 2016 17:50:25 GMT -6
The way we played today and the way we have played overall on the road this season who can deny the Cards.
Some of you are talking about who you wouldn't want to play....the way we played today I suspect not to many want to draw the Cards!!!
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Post by swenocha on Feb 27, 2016 17:51:49 GMT -6
Actually, using www.playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac/, it looks like even with an NIU loss resulting in a 1-1 split to finish out, BSU will earn a bye because of Miami's win over Kent today unless Kent wins out (which would include a win at Akron) or Toledo wins out against all three directionals. If both win out, BSU is a 6 seed with a 1-1 finish. If only one wins out, it's a 5 seed with the split. Looks like a 7 seed if the Cards lose out, and likely a 2 seed if the Cards win out. I think the only way to a 1 seed is for the Cards to win out, and both Ohio and Akron to lose out, so that's not very likely. Interesting...
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Post by thebsukid on Feb 27, 2016 19:57:27 GMT -6
Toledo just lost at home against CMU.
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