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Post by BSUMike on Nov 6, 2022 12:17:39 GMT -6
Never fear. There must be easy answers to this problem.
Not very articulate, not very smart, not the best candidate but he has a message that seems to resonate. Common sense for the masses? I am not going to debate politics on this site, but I live in GA. He’s the best candidate of the options available. I already cast my vote for Herschel, and hope he receives over 50% so I don’t have to watch another month worth of ads leading up to the runoff. |
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Post by bsutrack on Nov 28, 2022 21:53:38 GMT -6
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is predicting a 1970's style winter for 2022-23. If you remember the 1970's, it was common to for the same folks predicting global warming today to be predicting the start of another ice age. wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/28/ace-forecaster-bastardi-something-we-used-to-see-in-1970s-warns-of-spectacular-cold/His methodology is not to rely solely on models, but to integrate ongoing patterns with analogues from the past. What he is seeing for this winter are similarities to the really cold winters of the 1970's. Come March, we'll see if he was correct or not. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 29, 2022 6:48:55 GMT -6
Bastardi is trained as a short term weather forcaster. He has ideas on long term climate based on fundamentally flawed chemistry and physics.
He's formed a company whose success in forecasting is relatively modest.
His political and fringe science pursuits have attracted more attention than any remarkable success in his professional field. That fringe science has led to some business success with the oil industry who basically fund his climate change denial.
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 1, 2022 23:23:00 GMT -6
I'm not sure how looking at analogues from past winters to forecast this particular winter is based on flawed chemistry and physics. As for climate change denial, someday when I have more time, we'll have a whole debate on climate. For now, I'll just say the climate is always changing. Today we live in an interglacial period just like the other 22 interglacial periods of the Pleistocene. The last ice age ended approximately 14,500 years ago. Previous interglacial periods lasted anywhere from 10,000 to 30,000 years. Sometime in the next 16,000 years this interglacial will end and another ice age will occur. The Holocene began 10,000 years ago at the end of the Younger Dryas. Temperatures have been reasonably constant in the Holocene with a few exceptions; the most noticeable of which was the Little Ice Age. ![]()  Double Click on Image to Enlarge The Little Ice Age lasted from around 1400 AD until the early 19th century. Since then we have been warming. I don't think many folks deny that, but as of yet we still aren't as warm as it was during the Medieval Warm Period. The Medieval Warm Period allowed the Vikings to settle Greenland. The Vikings were mainly subsistence farmers. Sure, they did some hunting and fishing, but mainly they relied on raising dairy cattle. During the Medieval Warm Period, Greenland was warm enough to allow the growing of alfalfa hay to feed the Vikings' dairy cattle. You can't do this in Greenland today. It's too cold. As it got colder in the Little Ice Age, the Vikings could no longer grow hay, their dairy herds died off, and the Vikings had to abandon their settlements in Greenland. Today about 75% of the former Viking settlements are still under permafrost, again indicating todays' temperatures still have not reached the temperature highs of the Medieval Warm Period. Another interesting aspect of the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to Little Ice Age were the droughts that occurred in the Western Hemisphere. These droughts around 1400 AD ended the Maya Civilization in Central America. The reduced rainfall reduced the crops the Mayan were able to grow and they no longer could support the populations of their cities. Everyone basically had to go back to the jungle in an attempt to raise their own food. The next cooling trend of the Holocene may result in the same thing today. Get back to me once we have warmed to temperatures greater than those present in the Medieval Warm Period. |
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Post by 00hmh on Dec 2, 2022 9:50:49 GMT -6
I'm not sure how looking at analogues from past winters to forecast this particular winter is based on flawed chemistry and physics. As for climate change denial, someday when I have more time, we'll have a whole debate on climate. For now, I'll just say the climate is always changing. I don't quarrel with looking at recent data to forecast short term, although even then meteorologists are always looking at what is different about this coming season. If we have an El Nino form in the Pacific, you can pretty much throw out last year as a comparison. Using recent average or even long term average would be not be good forecasting. The last ice age is irrelevant...
Your throw away line that the weather changes doesn't mean we should ignore why, or should not try to look at the next 100 years in human history and its impact.
Climate science, unlike the daily weatherman, wants to understand what drives change. Your guy ignoring or misapplying science hurts his credibility on predicting change over a longer period than his forecast for this winter.
It's not just that relatively short term variation of a variable in ANY given period could have influence. It's not just that understanding climate is dependent on understanding physics and chemistry. Even if you think human action is long term relatively small, it's real, cumulative, and we should not discount it's significant. Don't discount we have discovered that a "butterfly wing" impact of relatively small events can have very great influence in large scale systems.
Do you want that next super warm period you believe is inevitable sooner or later?
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 3, 2022 22:30:31 GMT -6
For what's it worth, the Farmers' Almanac agrees with Bastardi.  ![]() ![]() Click on image to enlarge Extended winter predictions from the Farmers' Almanac are out; winter will have plenty of cold temperatures. |
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 6, 2022 20:37:32 GMT -6
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 15, 2022 21:41:55 GMT -6
It's not even winter yet (the first day of astronomical winter is December 21st), and the Germans have already spent half a trillion dollars on the upcoming winter. "Germany is bleeding cash to keep the lights on. Almost half a trillion dollars, and counting, since the Ukraine war jolted it into an energy crisis nine months ago. That's the cumulative scale of the bailouts and schemes the Berlin government has launched to prop up the country's energy system since prices rocketed and it lost access to gas from main supplier Russia, according to Reuters calculations." www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-half-a-trillion-dollar-energy-bazooka-may-not-be-enough-2022-12-15/And all this is a country, Germany, that has been preparing for the past 30-something years to be totally off fossil fuels by 2030, relying instead on all wind and solar energy. Why aren't all those wind turbines enough to this winter? |
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 15, 2022 21:59:37 GMT -6
Next week should be an interesting one for cold weather in the USA. Here is a temperature anomaly map for next Thursday, December 22nd ![]()  click on image to enlarge "Judah Cohen, head of seasonal forecasting at AER, a Verisk company, told Axios the cold blast slated for around the Christmas holiday could be one of the most extreme cold air masses to pour into the southern part of the country in years. Computer model data shows temperatures could dive 30 degrees below average by Dec. 23. AccuWeather forecasted the cold air could "challenge records that have stood since the 1980s from the northern Rockies to the Southeast, as well as stress energy grids, in the run-up to the Christmas holiday." |
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Post by nazcard on Dec 15, 2022 23:48:23 GMT -6
Not to worry; those ice/frost covered solar panels will pump out enough energy to, well, do something. Say, how will people charge their ECVs without coal produced electricity? Not to worry, as those smart thermostats will save the day whilst homeowners freeze their asses off. Thank God we have wind powered turbines, which, uh kill endangered species birds (ask any enviro whacko; protect at all cost, just give us useless wind power; hey, I spent 20 years in CA, I've got mental scars to prove it) and produce little useful energy, however, I digress.
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 18, 2022 20:17:51 GMT -6
Thus far, December hasn't been kind to Germany's natural gas supplies. Low wind speeds so far in December have meant the Germans have burned-up lots of natural gas they will be needing later in January to March in order to generate electricity that wind was suppose to generate. wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/17/germanys-gas-reserves-emptying-at-record-speed-as-country-struggles-to-keep-warm-lights-on/The forementioned article points out an interesting fact about German wind turbine contracts. To incentivize the construction of wind farms, the German government pays for all energy produced by the wind farms regardless if it is needed or not. Earlier in 2022, there were windy periods where the wind farms could have produced much more electricity than was needed. There simply wasn't any place to put the electricity if it had been generated, so many of the wind turbines were turned off so not to overload the electrical grid. But due to the contracts, the wind farm operators in Germany still got paid for electricity that was never produced. How much you might ask? Well 807 million Euro's worth ($855 million in US dollars). This $807 Euro's was of course passed along to the German consumers in the form of higher electric prices. I guess this will all be solved once Germany pays trillions for lithium battery storage, but don't hold your breath on that one. |
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 20, 2022 13:33:51 GMT -6
Bastardi is trained as a short term weather forcaster. He has ideas on long term climate based on fundamentally flawed chemistry and physics. He's formed a company whose success in forecasting is relatively modest. His political and fringe science pursuits have attracted more attention than any remarkable success in his professional field. That fringe science has led to some business success with the oil industry who basically fund his climate change denial. Score another one for Bastardi.  This storm system even has an name, Elliot.   click on image to enlarge |
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Post by 00hmh on Dec 20, 2022 16:17:25 GMT -6
I have no quarrel with his short term forcast activity...
His climate change theories are unsound.
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 20, 2022 16:48:30 GMT -6
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 23, 2022 13:56:51 GMT -6
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