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Post by lmills72 on May 18, 2016 16:57:14 GMT -6
So, now that Whitford is locked in for the next five years and we've found out what our team is likely to look like, how good/bad does everyone expect it to get? Since we don't know schedules, I don't think predicting win totals means much of anything, so I'm asking for where you expect us to end the season ranked in kenpom's rankings.
Keep in mind we finished at 150 last year. That was a better finish than any year since 2004-05, when the Cards were 15-13 and finished at No. 105. Those were heady days for the MAC compared to today, as I think even at 105 we were the seventh-best team in the conference, according to kenpom.
Also worth keeping in mind is that we return 6 players of significance from last year's roster and add a seventh in Persons who has had success at the D1 level. The following year we’ll return 5 of those players and add Walker, another D1 proven player. If we get anything out of recruiting it seems like we should at least maintain for the next two years, not necessarily an NCAA Tournament-bound future but not falling apart either.
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Post by thebsukid on May 18, 2016 17:14:31 GMT -6
Top 75 next year!
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Post by lmills72 on May 18, 2016 18:06:41 GMT -6
Man, I knew the kid would go top 100 next year but I didn't expect anybody else to.
Must have been Halftime showing some love for Whitford and the crew.
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Post by rusty on May 18, 2016 18:24:05 GMT -6
I'm with the kid. With the players returning and new coming in I expect a successful season. Teague and Persons impact will be bigger than most think.
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Post by DickHunsaker on May 18, 2016 18:33:15 GMT -6
I have cautious optimism about next year. Would love to see Worthen above 50% capacity every game!
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Post by 00hmh on May 18, 2016 18:36:34 GMT -6
We were in that 125-150 range at our best. I think better than that this year, top 4 in MAC.
Probably not top 100. Being top 100 would require everything to be better than I think it can be. Top 100 is a pretty good team and we are not big enough and deep enough up front to make that leap.
It is really too early isn't it, too many things uncertain.
I have seen Persons play, so I share optimism on that front. I expect most returning players to be at least a little better, with probably an exception, somebody will not do what we expect... But we are VERY likely better at guard and wing.
Moses should be better. Franko seems a reliable element. Two decent starters up front. Maybe slightly better there at starter, but a major negative is that I still don't see the front line depth we need. Adding something there hasn't happened. We have no depth at center at all.
We have two wild card chances for newcomers to help and provided some quality front court minutes in Teague and Hollywood, but that is a lot of uncertainty.
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Post by BSU Card Fan in AZ on May 18, 2016 20:05:49 GMT -6
Torn between 90 and 110. Giving them the nod, top 100.
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Post by rmcalhoun on May 18, 2016 20:41:42 GMT -6
While I am no as optimistic as you guys, I am looking forward to next year. Still to many question marks for me to expect a lot. I don't really care what we are ranked I just want a successful MAC season and some wins in the MAC tourney, quarter finals at least
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Post by bsu1 on May 19, 2016 4:55:30 GMT -6
Cautious optimism! I like Whit and how his players bought into his system. Hoping to build on last year's success.
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Post by universityjim on May 19, 2016 6:30:30 GMT -6
Top 100 will depend on the schedule. We could win 25 games and won't be top 100 if we play a similar schedule to what we played last season.
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2016 6:42:51 GMT -6
Top 100 will depend on the schedule. We could win 25 games and won't be top 100 if we play a similar schedule to what we played last season. Yeah I pointed out the same thing in a running private message between some board members. The Kid predicted 23 wins and a Top 75 RPI, in actuality, given a like schedule, BSU would need 26-27 wins to be even close to a TOP 100 ranking. I think we will end up right around 150 next season.
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Post by bsu0 on May 19, 2016 7:40:28 GMT -6
The Kid has been drinkin' and I haven't even got the Grey Goose I owe him yet!!
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Post by 00hmh on May 19, 2016 8:57:31 GMT -6
Top 100 will depend on the schedule. We could win 25 games and won't be top 100 if we play a similar schedule to what we played last season. If we are a better team, I think we will be at least slightly better, and if we had exactly the same SOS our ranking will go up. Using power ratings presumably we would win more and/or by larger margin and move up. SOS is mostly irrelevant. That's the best chance for top 100. For RPI based rankings, then the opponents winning percentage and the strength of their opposition do become very important(75%). But we had such a weak schedule last year with SOS counting 75% of the RPI a relatively small change in schedule we can easily us move up quite a bit with the same number of wins. Probably not top 100 though. I don't think we will be a top 100 team next year, but if we improve play we could get to a Sagarin top 100. Since some teams like Bradley will be better, and the winning record of the opponent is 50% of rpi. That automatically helps. 18 games against MAC opposition remain the same. That is an anchor unless we manage a couple of more wins. We will probably have the 4 lowest teams on our schedule replaced by 4 games where there will be a reasonably large improvement. Overall, we win more games we move up close to 100. 25 wins I'd think would probably be enough with only minor schedule change.
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Post by 00hmh on May 19, 2016 9:04:10 GMT -6
I think we will end up right around 150 next season. That is a little pessimistic, even with some weaknesses, we can easily have a little better team. So, we should improve somewhere around 125. SOS will be better. I can see being pessimistic about our making anything like as big a jump as we did this last year. But, if everything fell into place, we might. If we suffer no big setbacks in the injury department, we should be better. Even with the biggest weaknesses we worry about.
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Post by cardfan on May 19, 2016 9:13:42 GMT -6
I can see us around 125 but not any higher.
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