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Post by swenocha on Jan 24, 2018 11:20:47 GMT -6
I agree in many cases about the rotation comments, but I'll point out that Whit isn't as married to the rotations and set minutes as you state based on El-Amin getting a lot more minutes than Tyler and Kiapaway yesterday. He obviously saw that El-Amin was outplaying the two seniors and at least made that adjustment.
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Post by cbcjanney on Jan 24, 2018 11:22:15 GMT -6
Too often Whit is not good at riding the hot hand. He’s married to his rotations. A kid gets hot, he comes out whether he needs to come out or not because whits rotation is his rotation. How many times have we seen a kid get a couple buckets and out he comes because, well, the set rotation says so. Guys still generally get their minutes but it’s the timing of substitutions that’s often the issue. The "hot hand" concept is statistically challenging for those that enjoy numbers, as it seems Whit does. Human psychology I think often assumes recent optimistic history will continue....until it stops. e.g. folks don't sell stocks that are trending up on the assumption they'll continue upward a little farther, until they start to decline. If someone who's a lifetime 30% shooter comes out and hits their first 3, does that mean they're likely to miss their next 7? I've kept stats for high school basketball for a number of coaches for many years - one varsity coach told me once that he always takes a guy out after they get hot and hit a few in a row because he knows statistically they're due to start missing. I have a hunch Whit thinks along those lines as well - he thinks based on history, based on practice, whatever that in Teague's case he's due to start hitting. I opined to that HS coach that statistics are defining over longer periods of time, and not to break percentages down into overly small samples. Even though you flip a coin 1000 times and it should come out roughly 500 heads 500 tails, that doesn't mean that every time you flip heads the next flip will be tails. There will likely be instances over counting results from those 1000 flips that heads may both lead by 10+ and trail by 10+ at various points in time. Similarly the genuinely 60% FT shooter who hits his first 3 attempts won't necessarily miss his next 2 even though he likely will miss approx 40 of his next 97. In Teague's case, if I remember the #s correctly, he's about a 27% behind-the-arc guy for his career at BSU. That may be statistically what kind of long-range shooter he really is. We may have been fooled into over-optimistically thinking he was truly a 41% shooter based on last year's smaller sample size, but his makes may have just been front-loaded and now we're suffering through the back-loadedness of misses. Yet if 27% is his true number, I don't think we want him shooting all that much from out there. It's a tough concept - if a guy hits 4 in a row but he's due per rotation to come out, do you leave him in on the hot hand theory until he misses once? misses twice? You'd still have fans complaning that a guy who just hit 4 out of 5 or 6 got taken out.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 11:25:10 GMT -6
Tyler only played 11 minutes, he is once again on the shit list for something.
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Post by realitycheck on Jan 24, 2018 11:44:23 GMT -6
Tyler only played 11 minutes, he is once again on the shit list for something. I think for JT it begins and ends with his focus. When he's just going through the "flow" out there and not recognizing, defending or playing hard or the "right way" then he has a very short leash. When he does all those things well, he's effective and gives us a much better chance at winning. If we could get him to play with the motor and passion that Sellers has developed we wouldn't be 3-4 in league right now, IMHO.
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Post by TakeMeBackto2008 on Jan 24, 2018 11:52:59 GMT -6
Tyler only played 11 minutes, he is once again on the shit list for something. Whitford: "Jeremy, I'm not happy with you right now." Tyler: "What are you gonna do? Suspend me again?"
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Post by bsu0 on Jan 24, 2018 14:18:27 GMT -6
Sorry guys but splatt goes another egg. Same old crap. We are going NOWHERE. I tried to hope. I tried to believe. I tried to back this team. I tried to encourage this coach. It was and is useless. If you don't release him there is no out. A contract extension for this? THIS IS BAD...AND IT IS NOT GETTING ANY BETTER WITH THIS CAST OF CHARACTERS.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 24, 2018 14:19:45 GMT -6
Too often Whit is not good at riding the hot hand. He’s married to his rotations. A kid gets hot, he comes out whether he needs to come out or not because whits rotation is his rotation. How many times have we seen a kid get a couple buckets and out he comes because, well, the set rotation says so. Guys still generally get their minutes but it’s the timing of substitutions that’s often the issue. The "hot hand" concept is statistically challenging for those that enjoy numbers, as it seems Whit does. Hot hand does not survive statistical analysis, that is true. Either one, going with rotation or playing the hot hand is more a matter of style than substance in a lot of ways. Hot hand has an emotional impact, might give other players and team the feeling of being on a roll, whether that is statistically sound conclusion or not, It might be good psychology and provide confidence to produce good results by OTHER players. But it is essentially a coin flip if that guy keeps shooting. Well unless he really is a star who is almost always hot. But maybe then you need the rotation to keep him fresh, ready for game at the end? Or. Trusting the rotation might be good psychology too. It gives everybody on the team confidence they are trusted and part of the team and also that they need to be focused, they are going to play. That means OTHER players are able to take a shot when they need to. Except of course you are gambling on those bench players to make good decisions, which might be why they are not starters and are bench players? I doubt leaning toward either style has been shown to be superior, but probably most of us have an opinion on it...
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 24, 2018 14:25:32 GMT -6
Tyler only played 11 minutes, he is once again on the shit list for something. Whitford: "Jeremy, I'm not happy with you right now." Tyler: "What are you gonna do? Suspend me again?" Sure wish someone would really start a Hall of fame post thread and keep it up. This would be at the top of the list
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 24, 2018 14:26:41 GMT -6
So what if Teague hits a couple threes and the lid comes off. Then what he jacks up 10 the next game and misses 8 of them
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Jan 24, 2018 14:28:10 GMT -6
Regression to the mean notwithstanding, Teague should be a last resort three-point shooter.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 24, 2018 14:40:40 GMT -6
But when he does hit a couple and Ball State wins.. Whit will be glowing about trusting the process
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 24, 2018 14:42:25 GMT -6
I just want to say had you been in there rebounding you could have been saving a few possessions and maybe picking a few more garbage points.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 24, 2018 15:31:42 GMT -6
But when he does hit a couple and Ball State wins.. Whit will be glowing about trusting the process I think only if Teague returns to a reasonable 3pfg% will you see much glowing from anyone.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 24, 2018 15:34:43 GMT -6
But when he does hit a couple and Ball State wins.. Whit will be glowing about trusting the process I think only if Teague returns to a reasonable 3pfg% will you see much glowing from anyone. Nope I doubt it.. I bet you hot dog if he hits a couple we are going to hear about the lid coming and he is just too good a shooter to miss forever
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 24, 2018 15:37:39 GMT -6
I agree in many cases about the rotation comments, but I'll point out that Whit isn't as married to the rotations and set minutes as you state based on El-Amin getting a lot more minutes than Tyler and Kiapaway yesterday. He obviously saw that El-Amin was outplaying the two seniors and at least made that adjustment. Remember too, he also sees practices and bases decisions on weighing in stats kept there as well. Playing seniors and not playing freshmen isn't exactly a radical policy, and probably offsets some statistical analysis. Stats don't measure some of the things experience brings. You have to be disappointed Francis is in a funk and impressed with Ish, who has played without completely blowing up, which is probably playing well for a freshman,especially on the road.
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