|
|
Post by jburton on Nov 23, 2015 5:05:15 GMT -6
Don't care about SOS this season. This team needs to learn how to win again. Sometimes that is as much mental as anything else.
I've seen Valpo play a couple times this year. It's not going to be pretty. They are good. If we could keep the game close it would say a lot about this team.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardfan on Nov 23, 2015 5:16:21 GMT -6
There is a lot to be said for learning how to win again. We haven't had the experience of winning lately. Maybe these wins by struggle are baby steps toward understanding what it takes to win and finishing the job. I hope so.
Agree about Valpo. Doubt we can beat them but very interested to see how much fight we have.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsu0 on Nov 23, 2015 6:24:24 GMT -6
Don't know what the spread is but it would not be a bad bet!
|
|
|
|
Post by bsu0 on Nov 23, 2015 6:50:27 GMT -6
We beat a couple of teams that are 651 and 652 (I know but just stay with me for a sec) in a power rating and we have people saying we have a shot at 15 wins. I'm not sure if this is the eternal optimism of the die hards or a statement about the horribly weak schedule we have. Maybe a little of both. Burton is right. This team will have to learn how to win. That takes time, IF they are capable of winning. That is a BIG if ! Wins over such poor opponents don't prove ANYTHING about what this team might or might not do the remainder of the schedule. There are plenty on this board that still question the ability of the coach and his staff after two seasons. If this staff CAN"T coach Xs and Os we are in deep trouble. Trust me, the losses tells one more than these hollow wins. Looking at the losses leaves me with the feeling that there are many questions that are unanswered and won't be until we are into the middle of the MAC part of the schedule.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2015 7:04:20 GMT -6
On the up side. We don't just talk about getting beat anymore. We talk about getting beat by less than people think we will get beat by.
Now THAT'S an improvement over the last two years.
|
|
|
|
Post by lmills72 on Nov 23, 2015 7:15:43 GMT -6
If they can play well against Valpo, I would enjoy that, but the three OOC games I'm most looking forward to as a gauge of the program are IUPUI, Indiana State and Pepperdine.
IUPUI because it's an in-state game and a team that we lost to last year at their place (same as Valpo). Unlike Valpo, we should actually beat them this year. Let's see if we do.
Ind. St. because it's also an in-state team we recruit against (most recently winning the Mallers battle with them) and because we beat them at home last year, so there actually should be some confidence going in that they can beat that team. ISU is ranked much better than IUPUI, so possibly a better challenge.
Pepperdine because I think it's the only other OOC team ranked in the top 100, but maybe not so far out of our league as Valpo. It's a team that, if we beat them at home, you have to feel decent about our ability to play with almost any MAC team that comes into Worthen.
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Nov 23, 2015 9:10:00 GMT -6
If they can play well against Valpo, I would enjoy that, but the three OOC games I'm most looking forward to as a gauge of the program are IUPUI, Indiana State and Pepperdine. IUPUI because it's an in-state game and a team that we lost to last year at their place (same as Valpo). Unlike Valpo, we should actually beat them this year. Let's see if we do. Ind. St. because it's also an in-state team we recruit against (most recently winning the Mallers battle with them) and because we beat them at home last year, so there actually should be some confidence going in that they can beat that team. ISU is ranked much better than IUPUI, so possibly a better challenge. Pepperdine because I think it's the only other OOC team ranked in the top 100, but maybe not so far out of our league as Valpo. It's a team that, if we beat them at home, you have to feel decent about our ability to play with almost any MAC team that comes into Worthen. I think I agree. Those are games in the ball park of MAC games. We won't have quite the same home crowd for Valpo and be on the road at ISU after school is out, but pretty close otherwise. If we beat Pepperdine we would indeed be beating a team equivalent to the 2-4th best MAC teams. We don't have Sagarin including our game Sunday which should boost our rating to above 70 and of course Sagarin is not completely reliable at this point, but Jeff rates the teams as follows: Rank/School/= Power rating 210 Ball State = 69.69 (still held back a little by past seasons and without the win Sunday) 221 IUPUI = 68.77 160 Indiana State = 73.46 (about the same as Eastern and Central, also the central mean of the MAC, where we have 6 schools 72-74 power rating) 95 Pepperdine = 77.34 (a little below Akron, roughly the same as Ohio, Toledo) 40 Valparaiso = 83.17 So we should be favorite over IUPUI, but about a 7 point underdog against ISU and 4 points underdog against Pepperdine, 10 against Valpo. As it is it looks like we should be at the low end of a group of 8 MAC teams clustered within 3-4 points. 2 MAC teams are another few points above, and 1 below that large grouping. Very tight, many games will be very close in conference. |
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Nov 23, 2015 9:20:37 GMT -6
Trust me, the losses tells one more than these hollow wins. Looking at the losses leaves me with the feeling that there are many questions that are unanswered and won't be until we are into the middle of the MAC part of the schedule. The loss to Bradley was a little short handed and EKU did shoot awfully well. Both were on the road. I think we are a little better than those losses. The wins are representative of what a middle MAC team should do. I agree with you, there are indeed questions, and indeed they won't be answered until the MAC season. We could be 5-0 here, and I don't think we'd be a better team. So I don't find the losses or wins proving a whole lot right now, except maybe all together they show improvement over last year, that we have not had all cylinders firing in a game yet, and we seem to have improved a little over the 5 games. |
|
|
|
Post by universityjim on Nov 23, 2015 9:54:18 GMT -6
Pomeroy Ratings
Valpo (5-1) - 26
Akron (3-1) - 55
Central Michigan (2-0) - 90
Pepperdine (1-2) - 95
Western Michigan (1-2) - 125
Toldeo (2-1) - 129
Kent State (2-1) - 138
Buffalo (3-2) - 149
Eastern Michigan (2-1) - 154
Indiana State (2-2) - 163
Ball State (3-2) - 174
Northern Illinois (4-0) - 180
Miami (3-2) - 189
Ohio (3-1) - 194
Eastern Kentucky (4-1) - 220
Bowling Green (2-2) - 262
Bradley (1-4) - 271
IUPUI (2-2) - 281
Longwood (2-3) - 283
Alabama A&M (2-0) - 290
New Orleans (1-2) - 308
Eastern Illinois (0-3) - 309
SC State (2-3) - 322
Chicago State (3-1) - 343
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Nov 23, 2015 10:18:00 GMT -6
Pomeroy Ratings Valpo (5-1) - 26 Akron (3-1) - 55 Central Michigan (2-0) - 90 Pepperdine (1-2) - 95 Western Michigan (1-2) - 125 Toldeo (2-1) - 129 Kent State (2-1) - 138 Buffalo (3-2) - 149 Eastern Michigan (2-1) - 154 Indiana State (2-2) - 163 Ball State (3-2) - 174 Northern Illinois (4-0) - 180 Miami (3-2) - 189 Ohio (3-1) - 194 Eastern Kentucky (4-1) - 220 Bowling Green (2-2) - 262 Bradley (1-4) - 271 IUPUI (2-2) - 281 Longwood (2-3) - 283 Alabama A&M (2-0) - 290 New Orleans (1-2) - 308 Eastern Illinois (0-3) - 309 SC State (2-3) - 322 Chicago State (3-1) - 343 The differences in rank order are interesting, I suppose to be expected early on. In rank order the various ratings tend to become fairly close by conference season. Rank order doesn't show as much about how to gauge margin of victory/loss, or even who wins unless it is a neutral court. Here is another service: RealRPI Much different rank orderingCan toggle there to RPI rating. |
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Nov 23, 2015 12:57:23 GMT -6
When 2/3 of your OOC schedule is worse than the worst team in your league, that's concerning. In our case though (i.e. coming off a 17 game losing streak), you probably can make a good case that it's for the best. Maybe we do need to learn how to win. I wonder, though, how many coaches would ever get hired if they said in their interviews that in year 3, they will be playing an extremely weak OOC to teach their team how to win.
|
|
|
|
Post by BSU Card Fan in AZ on Nov 23, 2015 19:21:05 GMT -6
Well, we did have a Pac 12 team on the schedule if anyone remembers that. So I think the schedule was appropriate. Some games u should win, some u should probably lose, and some tossups. No matter how tough the schedule would be would not help a post season opportunity. All based on MAC record. Best to prepare for conference season.
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Nov 23, 2015 19:32:03 GMT -6
I wonder, though, how many coaches would ever get hired if they said in their interviews that in year 3, they will be playing an extremely weak OOC to teach their team how to win. I wonder if two years ago we could imagine being above 500 with a future. One where we can see a path ahead that leads back to the top of the MAC. If learning to win this year is part of it, that sounds good to me. If a coach came in and said we'd be there by now, with what we had going for us then, and said he'd take the job at the salary offered, would we really be better off today? Or would we have made a serious mistake hiring a guy willing to say anything to get the job, which isn't a very good one. Especially with the fan support we give... |
|
|
|
Post by rusty on Nov 23, 2015 20:24:54 GMT -6
Totally agree dude!
|
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Nov 23, 2015 21:20:28 GMT -6
Oh great. Here we go with the Billy Taylor s--- again. I knew this would happen when I first paid attention to the OOC schedule and saw how bad it is.
So we schedule 8 games against teams below 250, and then we can imagine being above .500. Oh boy!
This s--- gets old.
|
|
