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Post by 00hmh on May 12, 2020 17:48:31 GMT -6
A real killer!
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on May 13, 2020 8:36:59 GMT -6
According to Mearns, few BSU staff will be returning June 1. More on July 1. Even after returning, there may be a substantial number working from home on a daily, or semi-daily basis.
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Post by 00hmh on May 13, 2020 9:39:32 GMT -6
According to Mearns, few BSU staff will be returning June 1. More on July 1. Even after returning, there may be a substantial number working from home on a daily, or semi-daily basis. Very likely the most at risk faculty teach on line avoid campus. There is not so much option for the at risk food service or many other staff positions.
If students do not observe social distancing and masking and other mitigation the first casualties will perhaps be among that group of staff who are exposed, but a more dramatic impact may be the other students who are at risk.
Just driving through campus after the shut down this Spring, with limited number of students around, you can see students clustered together, very few wearing masks. The cars parked and music playing would indicate any social distancing is second priority. Only slightly reduced party time for a lot of them.
Add more students, many at low risk who have less incentive to take any care, I have no confidence we can keep the at risk student population safe after class hours. With online classes and a lot of effort to enforce social distance we can enforce some care on campus for that group. The less vulnerable will really have to be more aware and more responsible after hours if this is going to work.
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Post by williamtsherman on May 13, 2020 21:31:36 GMT -6
I'm willing to try any one of these Swedish Models. I don't see any curves being flattened, but I don't care.  |
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Post by bsutrack on May 13, 2020 22:09:32 GMT -6
I'm willing to try any one of these Swedish Models. I don't see any curves being flattened, but I don't care. I disagree. Those bikini tops are definitely flattening their breasts! |
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on May 14, 2020 10:13:18 GMT -6
The girl on the far right is clearly not Swedish.
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Post by rmcalhoun on May 19, 2020 12:37:12 GMT -6
Ohio Governor folds and reopens including Mass gatherings.. Looks Like OSU said lets play ball
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Post by bsutrack on May 19, 2020 14:32:57 GMT -6
Yes, but the Blue State Governor of Michigan is holding out. What happens on October 17th when OSU is suppose to play Michigan State in East Lansing? Move the game to Columbus? Have Michigan State forfeit?
This Blog has been really quite for the past few days. Did everyone die of Covid-19?
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Post by lmills72 on May 19, 2020 17:43:42 GMT -6
This Blog has been really quite for the past few days. Did everyone die of Covid-19? I died on April 10. But I came back on April 12. My hands have been kind of hurting though. Painful to type. |
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Post by rmcalhoun on May 19, 2020 17:57:43 GMT -6
Yes, but the Blue State Governor of Michigan is holding out. What happens on October 17th when OSU is suppose to play Michigan State in East Lansing? Move the game to Columbus? Have Michigan State forfeit? This Blog has been really quite for the past few days. Did everyone die of Covid-19? Yes that lady is going to be a problem. Im surprised by ohio even though he is a republican he hates trump. |
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Post by bsutrack on May 19, 2020 20:18:29 GMT -6
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on May 20, 2020 6:00:23 GMT -6
People are starting to come to their senses.
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Post by 00hmh on May 20, 2020 8:36:48 GMT -6
Looks like they are hedging bets by preparing for online classes if needed.
That TV money is certainly attractive. They seem to have plans for less than full capacity attendance at home FB games.
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Post by 00hmh on May 21, 2020 14:35:25 GMT -6
The math says a herd immunity strategy with Covid takes about 70% of the population infected. IF we allow the curve to go very high that occurs in the first year and we have very high death toll. (area under curve)
Here's is an article giving an explanation of why herd immunity was achieved earlier in Sweden: wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/If you don't want to read the entire thing, a key passage from the article's conclusions: "Incorporating, in a reasonable manner, inhomogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity in a standard SEIR epidemiological model, rather than assuming a homogeneous population, causes a very major reduction in the herd immunity threshold, and also in the ultimate infection level if the epidemic thereafter follows an unconstrained path. Therefore, the number of fatalities involved in achieving herd immunity is much lower than it would otherwise be. Sweden and it's population is a hell of a lot more healthy than we are. They also are very inclined to listen to government advice and follow it.
The reason they are not getting as many infections has to do with many people staying home and many observing recommended social distance and care as well as the difference in initial health.
They did close down higher education and asked businesses to do much of what we are now asking our reopened business to do. Except of course our compliance is not likely to be near as good.
Despite the differences, this article indicates they are not close to herd immunity though. The problem with their case is that the elderly who were isolated have not been able to be protected and the evidence is that a second wave may hit the population pretty hard unless they engage in the government recommended mitigation.
Their strategy was mitigation to keep infection down by compliance with good compliance to government recommendations and to not overwhelm a more effective health care system where everyone has easy access and there are more hospital beds per capita to start. Their non mandatory social distance, isolation, tracing and so on is working better than our mandatory attempts, possibly prematurely abandoned.
As you say we will see. But it is clear that model isn't an easy one to use for the USA. Different population, different behavior, different health care system. Different mobility and different numbers and concentration in large cities. As it is in the USA isolated rural areas are now, in terms of percentage infection and death rate, becoming "hot spots" which may be what we are seeing in Sweden.
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Post by rmcalhoun on May 21, 2020 16:51:20 GMT -6
I'm at a cabin in Gatlinburg. We thought by heading here we could some distance hiking and just hangout for sons birthday. TOday we took a drive through the town and into pigeon forge. There is no social distancing at all going on.. We saw a few masks but 99% of people did not have anything. The crowds were normal Gatlinburg Thursday afternoon size
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