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Post by chirpchirpcards on May 8, 2020 6:57:56 GMT -6
Colts schedule was released, so let's ask a three-part question:
1) How many of the 16 games will be played?
2) How many of the weeks that have games will be with fans?
3) How many wins for the Colts this year?
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on May 8, 2020 8:14:38 GMT -6
1) All 16 games will be played. Eventually.
2) All games will have fans. Maybe watching on TV...
3) Best case would be 11-5, worst case 7-9. I'll say 10-6, since I'm an optimist.
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Post by williamtsherman on May 8, 2020 8:30:57 GMT -6
My level of certainty in predicting the colt's record is about nil because it depends so much on Rivers...who is a wildcard. I could see him having something like a top 6 QB year, and given his age, I could see him completely falling off the cliff. He is right at the age where that could happen at any time.
I think they will play all games somehow some way because there is so much money to be made from TV alone. The only way games WON'T happen is if the NFL and govt figures get stubborn with each other and the NFL doesn't come up with a method of putting on games that the govt will allow. Heads should roll if that happens.
Unless something major changes about the virus, there will not be spectator attended games. Either some sort of very effective new vaccine/treatment, or it's discovered that games will not be the super spreader event that it appears they would be. Both of these seem extremely unlikely in 2020.
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Post by 00hmh on May 8, 2020 15:08:34 GMT -6
My level of certainty in predicting the colt's record is about nil because it depends so much on Rivers...who is a wildcard. I could see him having something like a top 6 QB year, and given his age, I could see him completely falling off the cliff. He is right at the age where that could happen at any time. He falls off the cliff they will have a good backup. Given the improvement they will have on D and the receivers they have got back from injury and from the draft, assuming no injury to Brisset, they would be better than last year with him at the helm.
Rivers has upside from there. I can't see anything worse than 9-7. |
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Post by williamtsherman on May 8, 2020 16:56:57 GMT -6
Except that the process of Rivers falling off the cliff will result in several losses. They aren't gong to want to pull the plug on their big off-season move very quickly. So then you have a below-average QB Brissett coming in at mid-season or later to an already losing record. Not sure how a winning record could come from a mess like that. No, their eggs are in the Rivers basket alright.
Another wildcard is Hilton. If he goes down like he has the last two seasons, they will get yet another unpleasant vision into the future of their nobody's-open passing game.
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Post by 00hmh on May 8, 2020 20:11:27 GMT -6
Except that the process of Rivers falling off the cliff will result in several losses. They aren't gong to want to pull the plug on their big off-season move very quickly. So then you have a below-average QB Brissett coming in at mid-season or later to an already losing record. Colts fans should always worry about something. Still.
They were one win from 500 with that same QB last year. He was below average while suffering an injury, and without 1/2 the receivers they started with in their top 6 in camp.
Their defense is improved. Their running game should be very good, may not need an above average QB against average opponents.
Plus they start the season with a string of relatively weak opponents. They will be able to tell if Rivers has it or not after 6 or 7 games. They could be above 500 with a relatively bad version of Rivers, which might still be an average QB. Worst case they kept Brisset for a reason.
That all adds up to a winning season barring terrible luck with injury. Where Rivers has to be in good form is in playoff football.
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Post by chirpchirpcards on May 10, 2020 13:46:24 GMT -6
Except that the process of Rivers falling off the cliff will result in several losses. They aren't gong to want to pull the plug on their big off-season move very quickly. So then you have a below-average QB Brissett coming in at mid-season or later to an already losing record. Colts fans should always worry about something. Still.
They were one win from 500 with that same QB last year. He was below average while suffering an injury, and without 1/2 the receivers they started with in their top 6 in camp.
Their defense is improved. Their running game should be very good, may not need an above average QB against average opponents.
Plus they start the season with a string of relatively weak opponents. They will be able to tell if Rivers has it or not after 6 or 7 games. They could be above 500 with a relatively bad version of Rivers, which might still be an average QB. Worst case they kept Brisset for a reason.
That all adds up to a winning season barring terrible luck with injury. Where Rivers has to be in good form is in playoff football.
Sherm is right. The Colts aren't going to replace Rivers after the first 7 games if they're 4-3, regardless of if he's playing like dookie. Only way Rivers gets benched is if the team is like 1-6 in that stretch. At which point, there would be little Brissett could do to revive that season. Rivers will be the man for enough of the season to know where they'll finish, good or bad. |
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Post by williamtsherman on May 10, 2020 14:27:14 GMT -6
Exactly. Rivers won't be benched unless both his play and the team's record are quite bad. GM's hate, hate, HATE admitting mistakes above all else. The colts will view benching Rivers with as much enthusiasm as a quadruple root canal. If he is playing poorly, but the record is .500 or better (not likely because you can't overcome bad QB play with interior linemen) Rivers would get credit for "managing the games" or some such thing. If he is playing pretty well, but the Colts have a losing record (not likely because the Colts have important roster shortcomings, but are not a flat out bad team) Rivers will get credit for playing pretty well.
The colt's season is going to go where Rivers takes it, and if Rivers ends up benched in 2020, it will be the end result of an extremely ugly and drawn out debacle, and things will be a long way past the powers of a below-average QB like Brissett to fix.
The value of Brissett is in the possibility that Rivers could be injured during an otherwise good season....in which case the above average back-up Brissett may be able to plug the gap and ride it on out to a lower end playoff spot.
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Post by 00hmh on May 10, 2020 14:42:41 GMT -6
Worry if you want, but Rivers as a bust is as good as Brisset last year. The rest of the team is better.
They will be no worse than 9-7.
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Post by williamtsherman on May 10, 2020 21:51:16 GMT -6
Worrying about Rivers is hardly just being a worry wart. There are three good reasons for concern:
1) 39 is an age where a steep decline often happens
2) his stats fell off in a big way last year
3) SD gave up on him despite having no obvious successor. They could be expected to have a pretty good insight into his current prospects.
The colts are now in the terrible situation of having no long-term franchise QB. The Luck retirement was a profound franchise crippling blow. They don't have any good, safe options. I'm in favor of taking the gamble on Rivers. Gambling is better than going into the season with a known bad QB. but I'm not stupid enough to pretend it's not a gamble. You can do that if you want. Brissett is a bottom third type of starting QB, but Rivers could possibly fall further than that with a ton of interceptions.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on May 11, 2020 6:02:28 GMT -6
They're going to take a good long look at Eason. He'll play a lot in the preseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if he sees the field late in games that are out of reach.
The only way Brissett plays is if Rivers goes down.
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Post by chirpchirpcards on May 11, 2020 6:34:45 GMT -6
They're going to take a good long look at Eason. He'll play a lot in the preseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if he sees the field late in games that are out of reach. The only way Brissett plays is if Rivers goes down. That's another good point, if Rivers plays to the point of benching, the season is lost. It wouldn't at all be surprising to see Eason thrown out there if that were the case. Unless he just looks like complete shit in preseason and practice. |
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Post by 00hmh on May 11, 2020 6:44:04 GMT -6
Worrying about Rivers is hardly just being a worry wart. There are three good reasons for concern: 1) 39 is an age where a steep decline often happens 2) his stats fell off in a big way last year 3) SD gave up on him despite having no obvious successor. They could be expected to have a pretty good insight into his current prospects. The colts are now in the terrible situation of having no long-term franchise QB. The Luck retirement was a profound franchise crippling blow. They don't have any good, safe options. I'm in favor of taking the gamble on Rivers. Gambling is better than going into the season with a known bad QB. but I'm not stupid enough to pretend it's not a gamble. You can do that if you want. Brissett is a bottom third type of starting QB, but Rivers could possibly fall further than that with a ton of interceptions. Agree there is a real worry. #1 on your list is valid. Colts say they viewed his year last year and don't think the decline is very great now and more is not imminent. But I agree it is certainly more likely to be a factor in the next few years. It is a one year contract for that reason.
But #2 and #3 may not be quite the worry it seems. His bad year and the fact SD didn't see short term value and wanted to move on is largely because their team did not have the offensive line or the running game that the Colts have. He fit poorly there. Fits much better (short term) with the Colts.
But assuming there is great decline, that is going to be evident within a few games. Yes, they won't like throwing their cards in on the bet they made, but remember they also bet a large sum on Brisset this year. They hedged that bet on Rivers. I do not buy they did that and are not prepared to use him. Why spend that money and let it go to waste?
Brisset will be a better QB this year than last without injury to himself and several receivers, will also have one or two good new receivers. Colts are improved just due to that. PLUS a significant improvement on defense. Teams will not march down the field late in the game to beat the Colts on the last possession as often.
Those two things, ignoring Rivers impact, would make them 9-7 instead of 7-9. Rivers gives them some upside. Yes, some risk of losing money on his contract, too. But they have the money.
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Post by 00hmh on May 11, 2020 6:55:10 GMT -6
They're going to take a good long look at Eason. He'll play a lot in the preseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if he sees the field late in games that are out of reach. The only way Brissett plays is if Rivers goes down. That's another good point, if Rivers plays to the point of benching, the season is lost. It wouldn't at all be surprising to see Eason thrown out there if that were the case. Unless he just looks like complete shit in preseason and practice. Not completely a surprise, but very unlikely.
Brisset is Plan B and fairly good one. If there is injury as lurkin says or if Rivers is a bust, both ways Brisset gets his chance first unless the Colts discover Eason is the major talent everyone thought he would be as HS player and he really turns a corner in practice.
Eason gets a chance only if the season is completely in the toilet. Throwing young QB talent out there in big games doesn't have a very good record.
If Rivers is uninjured and just not up to snuff, he will still become the backup. Would still be capable in that role. Eason is a development play.
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