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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 18, 2023 16:54:53 GMT -6
I took a look at overall basketball and football winning % for each year since Ball State entered the MAC Roughly 1975 - present There have been 48 seasons for basketball and 49 seasons for football. By slicing down the middle and looking at first 24 years vs. last 24 years: Basketball 58.2% wins in 1-24, 48.0% wins in 25-48 Football 55.7% wins in 1-24, 42.0% wins in 25-49 Remember that 16 of the 24 years from years 25-49 in basketball came after BSU deliberately gutted the non-conf schedule in 2009. Ball State flat out scheduled probably about 3 additional wins a year for those 16 years, so you should subtract approx. 48 wins from that calculation and see what the recent basketball win % is then. |
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Post by 00hmh on Dec 18, 2023 17:09:56 GMT -6
The schedule change I care most about is missing those good teams in Northern.
Nothing we could do about that. The top teams will rarely schedule such away games.
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Post by CallingBS on Dec 18, 2023 18:51:07 GMT -6
Get rid of D I football and focus on D I basketball AMEN!!! |
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 18, 2023 20:27:37 GMT -6
One thing we can think about in light of the big picture results I posted above is each coach's natural level. I think this is a pretty self-explanatory concept. There is a pretty good deal of year to year variation, but coaches tend to regress to their natural level over time. If they are currently above it, they are likely in the process of falling back to it and if currently below it they are probably in the midst of building back to it.
There are various ways you could calculate natural level - average ranking and median ranking come to mind. Most people agree that a coach's first year should not count, or count less, for obvious reasons. I calculated average ranking, median ranking and average ranking without first year for each coach. There was generally less difference between these various metrics for each individual coach than you might think. In my opinion it made each coach's natural level fairly clear.
Buckley: The #55 ranking in 2002 was not actually his first year as coach but I'm treating it as such because he was relying primarily on Ray's players still. I'm going to use the average of his last four years as his rating. Buckley: 151
Taylor: He inherited a train wreck of bad players and bad feelings from his nasty racist predecessor, but in 6 seasons he didn't improve the roster a heck of a lot because he was a poor recruiter and a not-too-good coach in general. I'm going to be slightly generous and not count his first TWO years. Taylor: 209
Whitford: Had more variation between low and high seasons making ranking him a bit harder, but was also here longer making ranking him a bit easier. I'll just use the straight up average-minus-first-season metric. Whitford: 179.
I think I'm on pretty safe ground ranking Taylor the worst of the three. In six years he could never exceed #164, which is a long way off from MAC championship contention. You can only milk the Thompson excuse so much...Taylor was just bad. I'm not so confident in ranking Buckley above Whitford. The program and its fan support had been much degraded by the administration's actions and hires in the interim between when both coaches started. It may be best to say that Buckley's natural level was 151 in the environment in which he coached and Whitford's natural level was 179 in the environment in which he coached. Two things are clear: 1) neither was a MAC championship level coach and either could have coached here forty f------ years and never won one 2) It was not necessary to keep either of them around nearly as long as we did to realize this.
Lewis: Too early to confidently apply the same metrics, but if you do use the average-minus- first-season, you get an ugly #247 (understanding that you're only looking a single partial season). An inconclusive, but yet alarming number. You can sugar coat it, excuse it, and chuckle over his Bob Knight Junior act all you want, but which of you would have believed or welcomed, at the time he was hired, a forecast of #247 well into his second year? He needs to do a lot better than he has so far.
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Post by prestonp on Dec 19, 2023 8:55:51 GMT -6
The "Gora effect" looks to me the biggest factor that has led to our BB mediocrity. I also have no doubts if we got out of D1 football that NIL money and overall recruiting in BB would improve. I also think the MAC would bail on us if our football would down size. Would our administration allow this? Unfortunately, I doubt it.
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 19, 2023 9:07:34 GMT -6
I think the football scam supporters at every MAC school each use the excuse "all the other MAC schools would kick us out if we dropped down in football", and so they each can claim there is just nothing they can do about it. This has been a very effective ploy and is a big part of the reason MAC students can expect to cough up an 8-figure sum each year to keep football afloat for the foreseeable future. It would take leadership from the top of the conference to ever get around this and do the right thing and end the farce, but then the MAC commisioner would thereby deprive himself his opportunity to travel to football games and play the ego-gratifying big shot role, so you tell me how likely it is to happen.
MAC football supporters have their hands jammed deep and firmly into the pockets of the students so that the students subsidize around $200 for each person that actually attends a MAC football game. There is absolutely no sign visible on the horizon that this will end.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Dec 19, 2023 10:30:27 GMT -6
The "Gora effect" looks to me the biggest factor that has led to our BB mediocrity. I also have no doubts if we got out of D1 football that NIL money and overall recruiting in BB would improve. I also think the MAC would bail on us if our football would down size. Would our administration allow this? Unfortunately, I doubt it. NIL does not come from the school its outside donations so you think dropping football will cause more people to donate to NIL fund? We see the numbers every year in the different public fund drives. Giving to football is always number one head and shoulders above everything else. B ball always ranks way down the list behind gymnastics, Baseball, and even volleyball. Many people earmark football and will only give to football, drop football they are not giving at all. |
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Post by DickHunsaker on Dec 19, 2023 10:38:01 GMT -6
I think the football scam supporters at every MAC school each use the excuse "all the other MAC schools would kick us out if we dropped down in football", and so they each can claim there is just nothing they can do about it. This has been a very effective ploy and is a big part of the reason MAC students can expect to cough up an 8-figure sum each year to keep football afloat for the foreseeable future. It would take leadership from the top of the conference to ever get around this and do the right thing and end the farce, but then the MAC commisioner would thereby deprive himself his opportunity to travel to football games and play the ego-gratifying big shot role, so you tell me how likely it is to happen. MAC football supporters have their hands jammed deep and firmly into the pockets of the students so that the students subsidize around $200 for each person that actually attends a MAC football game. There is absolutely no sign visible on the horizon that this will end. I mean the MAC kicking us out and us joining the MVC for basketball would be an upgrade. |
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Post by rmcalhoun on Dec 19, 2023 10:42:45 GMT -6
I think the football scam supporters at every MAC school each use the excuse "all the other MAC schools would kick us out if we dropped down in football", and so they each can claim there is just nothing they can do about it. This has been a very effective ploy and is a big part of the reason MAC students can expect to cough up an 8-figure sum each year to keep football afloat for the foreseeable future. It would take leadership from the top of the conference to ever get around this and do the right thing and end the farce, but then the MAC commisioner would thereby deprive himself his opportunity to travel to football games and play the ego-gratifying big shot role, so you tell me how likely it is to happen. MAC football supporters have their hands jammed deep and firmly into the pockets of the students so that the students subsidize around $200 for each person that actually attends a MAC football game. There is absolutely no sign visible on the horizon that this will end. All true but its not just the mac most of the ncaa uses student fees to subsidize
A quick google search finds a really interesting article.. If you want to fix it just dropping football is not going to help your just going to have to drop athletics
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Dec 19, 2023 11:03:07 GMT -6
Sherman, how many letters have you written to the BOT, President, AD, and/or your legislators about this issue?
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 19, 2023 11:19:44 GMT -6
Interesting figures. The $21 million loss for BSU athletics seems about right, with about half being football and half everything else. Also remember that there is an indirect cost of football in that the huge number of male scholarships given to football requires a huge number of female scholarships given somewhere. So dropping football would not completely solve the problem but it would certainly HELP. A lot.
It's interesting info to look at but I never entirely trust the data because schools do their best to avoid transparency because what they are doing is embarrassing. You wonder how a Big10 school like Mich St. manages to lose $19million with the ginormous big10 football tv money they get.
Calhoun is right that dropping football would not automatically lead to more money for men's BB, but more importantly even if you gave men's BB more money, what could you really expect? Who looks at the last 23 years of BSU basketball and thinks " Now THERE is a good place to invest money!" BSU basketball has a long-term culture of low expectations, on-court failure, excuse making and a slavish devotion to conventional wisdom. BSU basketball has not given the slightest sign in the last two decades that it DESERVES more money, or would have any idea how to usefully use it. Moreover, it is currently at a low ebb, even in the context of the 23-year drought. Any sensible decision maker would demand BSU basketball state clearly what it is going to do differently before any additional investment was made.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Dec 19, 2023 11:45:21 GMT -6
You wonder how a Big10 school like Mich St. manages to lose $19million with the ginormous big10 football tv money they get. I'm not sure, but I don't know that TV money is included in Athletics Dept revenue. It may go the school's General Fund. |
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Post by rmcalhoun on Dec 19, 2023 12:29:46 GMT -6
You wonder how a Big10 school like Mich St. manages to lose $19million with the ginormous big10 football tv money they get. I'm not sure, but I don't know that TV money is included in Athletics Dept revenue. It may go the school's General Fund. In discussions we have had we have always added it but I dont know if we were correct |
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Post by bsu73 on Dec 19, 2023 12:35:01 GMT -6
Wouldn't there be a big impact to Women's sports scholarships if football is completely dropped per Title IX?
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Post by rmcalhoun on Dec 19, 2023 12:49:25 GMT -6
Wouldn't there be a big impact to Women's sports scholarships if football is completely dropped per Title IX? It effects lots of things that's why you rarely see it. Football as we know it will go away but it will happen by conference not individually |
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