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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 16, 2024 8:56:48 GMT -6
Good summary of the prevailing low-expectations-and-excuses paradigm of Ball State basketball that has led to not winning a MAC title in 23 years and not even seriously competing for one during that same period while similarly disadvantaged MAC programs do it with regularity. If you've ever wondered how this statistically improbable streak has occurred, I believe it's because the Ball State administration shares this way of thinking. What is the evidence that not “seriously competing” for a conference title in 23 years is statistically improbable? Without doing any research, my gut feeling is most conferences have a handful of teams that compete and then a bunch of other teams that just field programs. In our conference it feels like Akron, Kent, Ohio, and Toledo have been the dominant teams at least in the last decade. Shooting from the hip, I would guess at least half the conference has not won a championship in that same period. Of course if you start counting at 2001, we have zero. Not only that but BSU HAS NOT EVEN MADE THE FINAL GAME in that same period. Toledo has at least made the final 4 times since 2001. BG also made one. I would go further and say we have not gone into the tourney with any sort of feeling like we had a decent chance. Maybe with the exception of the maui team early on. Since then, it's been total futility. In 2000, BSU fans could look back on the history of the MAC tourney going back the the Yoder years and take pride in having by far the best results of any MAC team. Also we had the best fan support with the possible exception of OU. A series of weak administrators, and their low-expectation, excuse-making enablers, have managed to destroy the program. Not only statistically improbable, but also sad. |
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Post by thebsukid on Jan 16, 2024 9:17:48 GMT -6
I would agree General but would add the team with Teague that didn’t play due to Covid; oddsmakers had us with the 2nd best chance to win it!
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 16, 2024 9:42:11 GMT -6
Mac championships since 2000 1 BSU 6 Kent 1 Cmu 2 Wmu 4 ohio 1 Miami 3 Akron 4 Buff What stands out to me is Toledo winning so many regular seasons yet having 0 tourney championships. That seems like a statistical improbability. Thats what I found odd.. Toledo has not won one since 1980 which I think was the first year.. Toledo has been regular season champ I think the last 3 years.. 1 bid leagues get screwed by the conference tournament more often than not. |
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Jan 16, 2024 10:17:54 GMT -6
What is the evidence that not “seriously competing” for a conference title in 23 years is statistically improbable? Without doing any research, my gut feeling is most conferences have a handful of teams that compete and then a bunch of other teams that just field programs. In our conference it feels like Akron, Kent, Ohio, and Toledo have been the dominant teams at least in the last decade. Shooting from the hip, I would guess at least half the conference has not won a championship in that same period. Of course if you start counting at 2001, we have zero. Not only that but BSU HAS NOT EVEN MADE THE FINAL GAME in that same period. Toledo has at least made the final 4 times since 2001. BG also made one. I would go further and say we have not gone into the tourney with any sort of feeling like we had a decent chance. Maybe with the exception of the maui team early on. Since then, it's been total futility. In 2000, BSU fans could look back on the history of the MAC tourney going back the the Yoder years and take pride in having by far the best results of any MAC team. Also we had the best fan support with the possible exception of OU. A series of weak administrators, and their low-expectation, excuse-making enablers, have managed to destroy the program. Not only statistically improbable, but also sad. But what evidence is there that not making it to the final game is statistically improbable? In other words, how many conferences have at least one team that has not made it to the final game of their conference tournament? I've not looked into this at all, but I would guess the majority of conferences have at least one team that has not made it to the final game in that timeframe. If you have any evidence to support your assertion I'd be interested. |
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jan 16, 2024 10:37:53 GMT -6
again since 2000 NIU and EMU have not made it at all, BSU once, BG twice, CMU twice, western twice, Miami 3 and then its just littered with appearances from Akron Kent Ohio toledo Buff(Buff just a short window of success though)
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 16, 2024 10:50:26 GMT -6
It may not be greatly improbable for "a" team in a 12-team conference to not make the final over a long time period, but it is definitely improbable that any particular team you chose would not make the final once in 25 years.
The simplest way to look at his is that 2 out of 12 teams make the final each year. That means 83.3% of teams don't make the final in a given year. The odds that a given team won't make the final once in 25 years is .833 raised to the 25th power. That calculates out to .01048, in other words just a hair over 1%
Me, I call that statistically improbable.
Given the roster, the fan support, and the general momentum of the program in 2000, it should have been more than statistically improbable, it should have been absolutely impossible. But yet it has happened, to the shame of those in positions of responsibility.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 16, 2024 10:58:53 GMT -6
The statistical oddity is probably our 10 year window of high success
Statistical analysis isn't really that appropriate if you try to include periods with greatly different environments.
But BB programs tend to have runs of success historically when/if they retain good coaching. Somewhere around 2005-10 college basketball changed in a number of ways.
Long term successful coaches at our level just isn't going to happen.
Many of us remember both our great 10 year run but a much different era from the 70's to the 90's. Looking at 50 years and at the differences for each decade, the disastrous consequence of our hire of Ronny Thompson stands out.
I disagree about always having poor athletic administrative leadership.
The worst was possibly during the Majerus Hunsaker success years. We've had ADs who went on to high degree of success since. Before 1990 we had quite mediocre leadership. You just cannot "general-ize" easily.
The MAC and it's history with football is a huge variable in mid major comparisons.
Budget and demographics about where revenue is produced us the current change (10-20) years that dominates our future.
With portal retaining good players for a longer run is obviously more difficulty.
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 16, 2024 11:05:02 GMT -6
We can't expect our poor BSU coach to contend for the MAC once in 25 years because of [insert description of disadvantage all MAC coaches face]
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 16, 2024 12:05:38 GMT -6
We can't expect our poor BSU coach to contend for the MAC once in 25 years because of [insert description of disadvantage all MAC coaches face] We desire it every year. Are we tired and frustrated not to see success since early 2000's? Sure. Does that change what we should expect this year? |
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Jan 16, 2024 12:36:11 GMT -6
It may not be greatly improbable for "a" team in a 12-team conference to not make the final over a long time period, but it is definitely improbable that any particular team you chose would not make the final once in 25 years. The simplest way to look at his is that 2 out of 12 teams make the final each year. That means 83.3% of teams don't make the final in a given year. The odds that a given team won't make the final once in 25 years is .833 raised to the 25th power. That calculates out to .01048, in other words just a hair over 1% Me, I call that statistically improbable. Given the roster, the fan support, and the general momentum of the program in 2000, it should have been more than statistically improbable, it should have been absolutely impossible. But yet it has happened, to the shame of those in positions of responsibility. I would agree with you if the two participants were drawn out of a hat, but there are other factors that play into who makes the championship game. When we've failed as badly as we have for as long as we have, you should be able to make better arguments. |
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Post by universityjim on Jan 16, 2024 13:26:16 GMT -6
Just what disadvantages does Ball State basketball have that the other MAC schools do not? Facilities? Location? Fanbase? Recruiting Base? School? History? Money?
I see more advantages there than disadvantages and the disadvantages aren't so great that they sabotage the program.
None of us will ever really know the full impact of the hit to our national reputation from Ronnie Thompson or how other coaches used his allegations against us. I believe it had an impact. I don't know it still does but I believe it did for a while.
Frankly I can think of few (no) valid excuses for what we have seen. From the very first MAC Tournament in 1980 we were a contender. Not any more. It's almost like that is the desired outcome.
The portal and NIL are both a new challenge and an opportunity. They should not be an excuse. All the MAC schools have to deal with it.
I have given some thought in the past to these topics in relation to the fall of Ball State Basketball however.
1. Single class basketball in Indiana ended in 1997.
2. The rise of AAU basketball and devaluation of Indiana HS basketball.
3. The MAC Tournament location in Cleveland for the past 23 years starting in 2000 and the rise of Akron and Kent State basketball which happened about the same time.
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 16, 2024 13:27:35 GMT -6
Jeez. Tough crowd here. I thought it was useful to point out that not making a tourney final for 25 years was well outside the ordinary range of chance. If you want a stronger statement, I could offer this: /https://tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com/filer/b6/11/b611d42c-35bb-4aec-a220-34c4a6ec7afe/nasm-si-98-15068.jpg) |
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