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Post by CallingBS on Dec 22, 2023 12:11:24 GMT -6
I have mixed feelings about where we are as a program, but definitely more concern than optimism. I do agree with the general on the recruiting issues, but I also recognize Sellers and Coleman left very late in the process and didn't help his recruiting situation. However, the verdict is still out on his recruits prior to their departure, sans Jaylin Anderson.
I'm not happy about the scheduling or the ugly losses to bad teams, nor do I like the fact that ISU seems to be way ahead of us in terms of progress with a new coach. The lack of commitment to NIL bothers me, but ultimately Lewis will have to take control of his own fundraising.
Compared to our previous 20+ years of coaches, I think Lewis is a far better in-game coach than the others, but yet we are seeing some of the same mistakes over and over again.
I do worry that his 1980's style may not work in terms of recruiting or motivation today, but I will say his teams seem to grind and play hard for the most part.
The last thing I'll state is that if this next recruiting class isn't solid top to bottom with a couple of alphas and a couple of post players who can contribute we should be very worried. Having said that, we have ZERO seniors on the roster (besides Brittain-Watts, who is an injured grad student who is rumored to be redshirting and will play next year), so I'm assuming some departures are inevitable. Nonetheless, it is concerning that if everyone stays we have no scholarships to work with. To me this doesn't bode well for the program.
The MAC is horrificly bad this year. Despite that, here are my predictions (8-10 overall) for league season:
@ Kent - LOSS
CMU - WIN
Akron - LOSS
@ Toledo - LOSS
@ EMU - WIN
Miami - WIN
@ Buffalo - WIN
NIU - LOSS
BG - WIN
@ WMU - WIN
Ohio - LOSS
@ Sunbelt/ MAC challenge - TOSS-UP, but it's on the road, so LOSS
@ Miami - LOSS
@ NIU - LOSS
EMU - WIN
@ CMU - LOSS
WMU - WIN
Kent - LOSS
@ BG - LOSS
So many of these games are toss-ups. It's truly hard to pick us in any road games. Odd that we don't play Toledo twice.
I like Lewis, but it all comes down to recruiting, which will drive results.
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 22, 2023 14:14:07 GMT -6
Compared to our previous 20+ years of coaches, I think Lewis is a far better in-game coach than the others That's a very low bar to clear, but what is the evidence that it is, in fact, being cleared? Asking for a friend. |
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Post by CallingBS on Dec 22, 2023 15:04:15 GMT -6
Compared to our previous 20+ years of coaches, I think Lewis is a far better in-game coach than the others That's a very low bar to clear, but what is the evidence that it is, in fact, being cleared? Asking for a friend. Nice of you to cherry pick part of the quote, but just my eyes...And I'm not entirely sure I even believe it myself (as evidenced by the second half of the quote that you conveniently left out). Interesting that you pick apart one sorta positive despite likely largely agreeing with the rest of my post... And yes, it is a VERY low bar. |
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 22, 2023 15:39:29 GMT -6
Well, you said "far better" and that is a sentiment I see around here fairly often, so I was curious what the evidence was. That happened to be the part of the post that perked my interest.
Not to beat around the bush, I suspect the wish is the father of the thought that Lewis is a great bench coach. I haven't seen enough games to analyze this myself, but I've seen so much wishful thinking around here over the years that I'm very skeptical of this sort of claim. Also I don't see that the results of the games back it up. I further suspect people are overestimating the effectiveness of his coaching because they like his style.
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Dec 22, 2023 16:01:54 GMT -6
That's a very low bar to clear, but what is the evidence that it is, in fact, being cleared? Asking for a friend. Nice of you to cherry pick part of the quote, but just my eyes...And I'm not entirely sure I even believe it myself (as evidenced by the second half of the quote that you conveniently left out). Interesting that you pick apart one sorta positive despite likely largely agreeing with the rest of my post... And yes, it is a VERY low bar. I also feel like he is a better in game coach (note that basing this on a feeling is subjective and therefor not based in evidence). A big part of the reason I feel that way is what I have seen from him on the bench when attending games in person. I have seen him pull a player and greet that player in a blind rage and I have also seen him pull a player and calmly pull them aside and coach them up. I feel like Whitford barely even talked to players during the game. Maybe I’m just not remembering Whitford clearly or maybe Lewis is very ineffectual in these chats I am noticing, but I do feel like he’s more of an in game coach. As mentioned, the bar is so low that basically doing anything looks like an improvement. |
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Post by CallingBS on Dec 22, 2023 16:59:14 GMT -6
Well, you said "far better" and that is a sentiment I see around here fairly often, so I was curious what the evidence was. That happened to be the part of the post that perked my interest. Not to beat around the bush, I suspect the wish is the father of the thought that Lewis is a great bench coach. I haven't seen enough games to analyze this myself, but I've seen so much wishful thinking around here over the years that I'm very skeptical of this sort of claim. Also I don't see that the results of the games back it up. I further suspect people are overestimating the effectiveness of his coaching because they like his style. "Far" better may or may not have been a stretch, but watching Taylor and Whitford snatch defeat from the jaws of victory over and over again gave me the opinion that they were both atrocious bench coaches. As you said, the bar is very low. |
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Post by CallingBS on Dec 22, 2023 17:03:23 GMT -6
I've added a MAC record prediction poll. What say ye?
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Post by bsutony on Dec 22, 2023 17:31:23 GMT -6
The MAC is bad. I said 10-8.
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Post by david75bsu on Dec 22, 2023 17:46:55 GMT -6
The MAC is bad. I said 10-8. Agree that the MAC is bad. If we stay healthy, we will do better than 10-8. Of course the bench must improve and provide some relief for the starters. |
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Post by lmills72 on Dec 22, 2023 20:26:51 GMT -6
The MAC is bad and thus not impossible to win ... even for us.
Lucky for us the remnants of the former division schedule seem to be mostly in place, so we get most of the horrid ex-West teams twice and the better ex-East teams just once in some cases.
Not sure how much development we can expect at this point, especially from players that haven't played that much, like Doughty, Bell or Zagorsak.
Jones, Middleton have played a lot and seem to be developing some but are certainly inconsistent, and I would expect them to be so for the rest of the year. Who knows what will happen with Brown.
Most of our starters aren't really difference makers. Don't think there's anyone we throw out there every night who you can say is going to get you a certain level of production.
I think we're a 9-9 team. But, as stated, the MAC sucks, so even a long shot who gels and gets hot could be a threat at the end of the season.
I wouldn't worry about having roster room into the off-season. I would expect at least half of our roster to turn over by next year. Not that players will take the NIL elsewhere but that they'll instead probably be encouraged to find another place to play.
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Post by universityjim on Dec 23, 2023 11:36:38 GMT -6
The MAC isn't bad at the top but it is at the bottom. We are in the middle. It will be difficult for us to beat the top 5 home or away. We'll lose more than we should to the bottom teams on the road. I'm having trouble seeing more than 8 conference wins.
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Post by sdacardinal on Dec 23, 2023 12:34:59 GMT -6
I don't know but Akron and Toledo have looked really bad in their last games. The other night Ali Ali scored big to lift Akron to victory. Many MAC players just look underfed. On our team Bailey looks like he cleans his plate and Jihad is a hand full while not being a hulk but not being skinny either. Zane is bigger than many other MAC centers while Hendricks needs to go back for seconds. I really like the way we are learning to keep battling the whole game. Against Minnesota we could have just folded after getting off the bus/plane but didn't. Finally ran out of gas not the bus/plane us.
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Post by prestonp on Dec 23, 2023 17:45:21 GMT -6
Just getting into the tourney would be a positive sign with this roster IMO. I agree with the fight of this team in spots. If they could sustain that fight more than 10 minutes a game we might surprise. But we have said that for years now.
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 24, 2023 9:29:21 GMT -6
If you wanted to look back and pick a comparable BSU season to set expectations and give perspective for this season, I would say probably 2008-09 is the closest match.
As with this year, there was a coach in his 2nd season. Billy Taylor's 09 team ended the year at #240, currently we sit at very comparable #253.
In 09 there were five MAC teams even worse than BSU. These helped create the illusion of semi-respectability and a 14-17 record. This year, there are three MAC teams currently ranked lower than BSU, but the non-conf schedule is significantly worse than what Billy Taylor faced (2024: #325 vs 2009: #211). On the whole, the schedule factor is more favorable for Lewis. The current 8-4 record from the worst-ever BSU non-conf schedule gives Lewis a cushion to maintain an overall winning record, even with an eventual conf record worse than Taylor's 7-9. This is important in deceiving the remaining fanbase and the administration, neither of which is noteworthy for their perceptiveness or shrewdness.
In fairness to Taylor, it should be pointed out that he inherited an ugly train wreck of a program. Taylor's predecessor Thompson had recruited essentially zero useful players during his one year which was notable mostly for racial hostility actively spread by the coach. Lewis, on the other hand, inherited a peaceful, if unexciting, program from Whitford, and an above-average MAC roster. Of course, we are reliably assured that this roster was simultaneously too weak to compete for a championship and too strong to keep intact...depending on which excuse you're looking to deploy at the moment.
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Post by bsutrack on Dec 24, 2023 11:34:18 GMT -6
Against Minnesota we could have just folded after getting off the bus/plane but didn't. Finally ran out of gas not the bus/plane us. What I found especially encouraging about the Minnesota game was the way both Doughty and Zagorsak played. Both had decent games against a Big Ten team ranked in the top 100. Made me wonder if they shouldn't have been seeing more playing time before, but more importantly gave me hope if someone got hurt during the MAC schedule we had someone on the bench who could potentially step-up. |
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