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Post by 00hmh on Oct 14, 2024 9:04:04 GMT -6
I haven't paid a lot of attention o ver the years to preseason ratings by KenPom or Sagarin or anybody. Here's the latest set: kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSOhio is top in the MAC at #110, BSU is 5th at #240. I think we're stronger than that. I don't know that much about the other MAC teams. Could be I'm just too optimistic, but we added a lot of talent. Overall in the rankings from KenPom the top 30 or so seem plausible enough. But there are a few results which seem a little off. www.insidethehall.com/2024/10/14/indiana-ranked-no-39-in-initial-kenpom-ratings-10th-in-the-big-ten/IU has been picked at near the top of the B10 by many writers and the B10 coaches. They add a lot of talent, and have some injuries who are returning to full strength.
I wonder how they rate Sparks, on hi s last years production, it would explain a lot...
I'm sure there are other preseason rankings out there now. Being a little under the radar isn't a bad thing. With the new faces I'm sure we won't have an easy time coming out of the gate quickly.
BSU #251 #7 in MAC
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 14, 2024 9:15:11 GMT -6
I haven't paid a lot of attention o ver the years to preseason ratings by KenPom or Sagarin or anybody. Here's the latest set: kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSOhio is top in the MAC at #110, BSU is 5th at #240. I think we're stronger than that. I don't know that much about the other MAC teams. Could be I'm just too optimistic, but we added a lot of talent. Overall in the rankings from KenPom the top 30 or so seem plausible enough. But there are a few out of the ordinary results. www.insidethehall.com/2024/10/14/indiana-ranked-no-39-in-initial-kenpom-ratings-10th-in-the-big-ten/IU has been picked at near the top of the B10 by most writers and the B10 coaches. They add a lot of talent, and have some injuries who are returning to full strength.
I'm sure there are other preseason rankings out there now. Being a little under the radar isn't a bad thing. With the new faces I'm sure we won't have an easy time coming out of the gate quickly.
Ken Pomeroy has always been very open in admitting his rankings were not too terribly reliable until around Christmas time....being based on actual results as they are. this will be even more true with all the portal reshuffling now going on. It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on that. Did OU retain some quality players? Or have some notable portal success? I have not troubled to look at anything like that as of yet. I think of us as better than 240 but who can blame anyone for ranking us low with our track record the last 2.5 decades? |
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Post by universityjim on Oct 14, 2024 9:16:38 GMT -6
He's got to start somewhere but his rankings won't be worth much until he has real data.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 14, 2024 9:18:20 GMT -6
I haven't paid a lot of attention o ver the years to preseason ratings by KenPom or Sagarin or anybody...I'm sure there are other preseason rankings out there now. Being a little under the radar isn't a bad thing. With the new faces I'm sure we won't have an easy time coming out of the gate quickly. Ken Pomeroy has always been very open in admitting his rankings were not too terribly reliable until around Christmas time....being based on actual results as they are. this will be even more true with all the portal reshuffling now going on. It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on that. Did OU retain some quality players? Or have some notable portal success? I have not troubled to look at anything like that as of yet. I think of us as better than 240 but who can blame anyone for ranking us low with our track record the last 2.5 decades? Check out the Trank preseason ratings where there is a link to "contributors" that shows a roster and last years production for each team.
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 14, 2024 14:43:09 GMT -6
That's an interesting site. They project Sparks and Hart as low contributors, presumably because of their lack of production at IU and UK respectively. Not an unreasonable way to go about things, but I think they are wrong and certainly hope they are wrong.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 14, 2024 16:05:37 GMT -6
That's an interesting site. They project Sparks and Hart as low contributors, presumably because of their lack of production at IU and UK respectively. Not an unreasonable way to go about things, but I think they are wrong and certainly hope they are wrong.
They are wrong about Sparks. And I would bet real money their projection of team APG is off base.
Gorosito did play in a conference that predicts he does about as well here as there, maybe better.
Hart at 10ppg could be right, but if so, I think it would be a matter of others scoring a little more than they project, and his getting more APG as they are forced to guard him closely. They do predict he rebounds well for a wing, so he they must think he gets minutes
Hill and Hernandez look underrated, and if opponents are shutting down Hart outside shooting, they, Watts and others should be pick up more good chances.
It's really hard to project totals on a team with depth where coaches will mix and match differently depending on practice and on matchups. And tRank obviously doesn't appreciate Big Ben's potential! |
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Post by steve on Oct 15, 2024 18:25:11 GMT -6
Looking forward to the season…go Cards…
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dcat
Freshman
Posts: 96
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Post by dcat on Oct 15, 2024 19:03:34 GMT -6
We aren't finishing 5-7. I'm predicting much higher. Ive got more confidence in Lewis than that. I dont think Lewis is here much longer (which is a good thing). Goooo cards!
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Post by Hoopsmith on Oct 16, 2024 12:48:15 GMT -6
We aren't finishing 5-7. I'm predicting much higher. Ive got more confidence in Lewis than that. I dont think Lewis is here much longer (which is a good thing). Goooo cards! Meaning... you think he turns the corner this year or next, leverages another job and moves on.. or wears out his welcome and moves laterally or get pushed out once his contract is up? Fingers crossed for the former. |
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 16, 2024 13:28:23 GMT -6
Best case scenario:
The transfers are just as good, and maybe even a bit better than we think. And Lewis has shrewdly compiled a roster that covers all the bases...with a bit of depth as a kicker. This plus competent, energetic coaching makes the team more than the sum of its parts. We are near or at the top of the MAC standings all year, steadily building fan support and interest, and then we win the MAC tourney. Our season was impressive enough that we are not stuck with a shit 15 or 16 seed and in the first round we draw a good, but not overwhelming opponent and then we are hitting our threes and.....I'll let you fill in the rest.
The season as a whole was impressive enough that Lewis draws interest from up the food chain and takes a new job. On the way out, he does the fanbase one more enormous favor and speaks frankly about the unnecessary challenges he had to overcome in winning at Ball State, particularly the dismissive, unhelpful attitude the AD (called out by name) has about NIL. This lights a fire under Mitchells lame ass and gives the new coach some ammunition to continue to rectify the situation and demand better support and cooperation with NIL.
OK, so, maybe this went from "best case scenario" to "ridiculous pipe dream", but this is a internet fan site, and you get what you pay for.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 16, 2024 14:11:15 GMT -6
Best case scenario: The transfers are just as good, and maybe even a bit better than we think...this lights a fire... and gives the new coach some ammunition to continue to rectify the situation and demand better support and cooperation with NIL. OK, so, maybe this went from "best case scenario" to "ridiculous pipe dream", but this is a internet fan site, and you get what you pay for. That's true...
In any case we are not completely out in the ether to think those preseason rankings underestimate Lewis and the team. |
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 16, 2024 14:15:16 GMT -6
We aren't finishing 5-7. I'm predicting much higher. Ive got more confidence in Lewis than that. I dont think Lewis is here much longer (which is a good thing). Goooo cards! Meaning... you think he turns the corner this year or next, leverages another job and moves on.. or wears out his welcome and moves laterally or get pushed out once his contract is up? Fingers crossed for the former. Let's hope it takes more than one year of success to get the job he wants. Maybe a raise and an extension which everybody can argue about will keep him around to see a recruiting class graduate. Given the pipe dream scenario is a bit hard to accept, there's a chance of that. |
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dcat
Freshman
Posts: 96
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Post by dcat on Oct 16, 2024 14:19:21 GMT -6
We aren't finishing 5-7. I'm predicting much higher. Ive got more confidence in Lewis than that. I dont think Lewis is here much longer (which is a good thing). Goooo cards! Meaning... you think he turns the corner this year or next, leverages another job and moves on.. or wears out his welcome and moves laterally or get pushed out once his contract is up? Fingers crossed for the former. Lewis turns the corner, gets BSU back on top where it belongs. After 2 consecutive championships Lewis moves up. |
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