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Post by rmcalhoun on Oct 20, 2019 20:26:57 GMT -6
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Post by sweep on Oct 21, 2019 7:31:52 GMT -6
kenpom.com/Seems about right as a starting spot. Below is the preseason T-Rank, for whatever reason this computer model really likes Ball State, 106th overall and first in the MAC. www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 21, 2019 7:55:07 GMT -6
The way we finished last year, if they factor that in, should guarantee we are not starting out over rated...
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 21, 2019 9:19:02 GMT -6
The T-rank is interesting. As they explain in the FAQ, that ranking is very similar to KenPom, with a few slight tweaks. The strength of both rating systems is the intelligent use of available game results...especially as compared to a stupid rating like RPI. A problem for both rating systems is that, in the pre-season, there are no results to use.
I remember reading once how Kenpom explained how he used some data on last year's results, returning players, and newcomers to come up with his preseason rankings. However he freely admitted that the preseason rankings cannot be taken as seriously as the in-season rankings. It would appear that the T-rank people use a different method for pre-season rankings than kenpom. Below is T-rank's projections for BSU and MAC playersplayers, which tend to explain how they look at preseason rankings, and which are interesting in their own right.
BSU player projections
mac player projections
I disagree with the projection that Walton will be the #2 scorer. I think they made the mistake of not factoring in the trend of his performances, and only used his season totals. Walton's season progression suggested a limited player whose strengths were eventually recognized and counteracted by conference opponents. I'd bet that at least a couple other players surpass his scoring.
They also forecast playing time, rebounding and assists. Note that they forecast nobody with as many as 2 apg. And that's probably going to be the single recruiting consequence that limits the success of the season the most.....no point guard.
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Post by sweep on Oct 21, 2019 9:52:59 GMT -6
My guess is T-Rank weighs projected SOS heavier than KenPom, but that's sort of a weak guess.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Oct 21, 2019 11:26:38 GMT -6
Man do you guys really trust Ken pom or T-rank better than our own eyes.. While they might be professionals with fancy formulas. We have watched and studied more BSU basketball than they ever will. Its not that difficult to see the problems this team is going to face
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Post by sweep on Oct 21, 2019 12:28:45 GMT -6
Man do you guys really trust Ken pom or T-rank better than our own eyes.. While they might be professionals with fancy formulas. We have watched and studied more BSU basketball than they ever will. Its not that difficult to see the problems this team is going to face No, we have a better grasp than any computer formula. I do however always find "black box" solutions interesting.
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 21, 2019 12:32:32 GMT -6
By the way, I don't think BSU will go without ANY player averaging 2 assists or better. I'm sure they just looked at each player individually and projected how many assists they would have in a normal situation, without considering the roster as a whole. But in BSU's situation, with no obvious D1 point/lead guard, SOMEBODY is going to have to have some assists greater than 2 per game.
Looking back through the stats 5 years, BSU had at least 2 players each year with >2 apg. Including the immortal Naiel Smith in 15/16. So, you don't have to be much good to have 2 apg, you may just happen to fall into a void.
Assists are a funny stat. For one thing, you need somebody else to hit a shot to get one. For another, the recognition of an assist is somewhat subjective whereas the other major stats are pretty black and white. I think that few assists are the classic such-a-good-pass-the-guy-couldn't-help-but-score variety. Assists are often used as a proxy stat for general ball-handling and offense facilitation. They are, I suppose, the best stat available for this, yet they are not a direct measure and can be misleading...but still useful when viewed with discretion. Even though T-rank's projection of nobody averaging two assists is a mistake, as I discuss above, I think that projection does correctly point out a real issue.
Anyway, this situation is going to be a weakness for certain, and possibly a crippling, season-long weakness. Although Person's efficiency fell off last year, you have to give him that he was always ready, willing and able to take the ball and do something purposeful with it. That will be missed, and there will be times when nobody does anything particularly purposeful with the ball.
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Post by cardfan on Oct 21, 2019 12:44:50 GMT -6
I still remember whit talking about seeing Naiel Smith playing in a juco tourney and falling in love with his play. Just had to get him to bsu. Yikes.
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Post by williamtsherman on Oct 21, 2019 12:50:45 GMT -6
I still remember whit talking about seeing Naiel Smith playing in a juco tourney and falling in love with his play. Just had to get him to bsu. Yikes.
Well, the recruiting competition was probably pretty light....which is always a huge plus for Whitford. Recruiting players that a bunch of other schools want is so bothersome. Who needs the aggravation?
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Post by cardfan on Oct 21, 2019 13:19:03 GMT -6
Well Sherm I’m sure we had to fend off Prairie View or East Texas Baptist for him.
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Post by sweep on Oct 21, 2019 13:51:35 GMT -6
By the way, I don't think BSU will go without ANY player averaging 2 assists or better. I'm sure they just looked at each player individually and projected how many assists they would have in a normal situation, without considering the roster as a whole. But in BSU's situation, with no obvious D1 point/lead guard, SOMEBODY is going to have to have some assists greater than 2 per game.
Looking back through the stats 5 years, BSU had at least 2 players each year with >2 apg. Including the immortal Naiel Smith in 15/16. So, you don't have to be much good to have 2 apg, you may just happen to fall into a void.
Assists are a funny stat. For one thing, you need somebody else to hit a shot to get one. For another, the recognition of an assist is somewhat subjective whereas the other major stats are pretty black and white. I think that few assists are the classic such-a-good-pass-the-guy-couldn't-help-but-score variety. Assists are often used as a proxy stat for general ball-handling and offense facilitation. They are, I suppose, the best stat available for this, yet they are not a direct measure and can be misleading...but still useful when viewed with discretion. Even though T-rank's projection of nobody averaging two assists is a mistake, as I discuss above, I think that projection does correctly point out a real issue.
Anyway, this situation is going to be a weakness for certain, and possibly a crippling, season-long weakness. Although Person's efficiency fell off last year, you have to give him that he was always ready, willing and able to take the ball and do something purposeful with it. That will be missed, and there will be times when nobody does anything particularly purposeful with the ball. Yep assists, rebounding and turnovers will all be major issues this season.
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Post by thebsukid on Oct 21, 2019 14:38:22 GMT -6
This year's team if it remains healthy and eligible we be a top contender....even Sweep agrees with me on this. Say, what you like but we probably would be the Vegas favorite or certainly in the top 2 to win it this year. Street and Smith agree...Lunardi agrees. Did it take to long...yes, more than likely, but if true why not enjoy the season a bit more on the positive side...you'll feel better!
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Post by cardfan on Oct 21, 2019 14:42:24 GMT -6
Why would we be the favorite this year? By default? Rest of league that bad? Certainly can’t be based on past results or proven quality.
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Post by sweep on Oct 21, 2019 14:50:10 GMT -6
Why would we be the favorite this year? By default? Rest of league that bad? Certainly can’t be based on past results or proven quality. That was my reasoning, without Buffalo beating everyones brains in the path is a little bit easier. I don't think I ever said we are a favorite, in fact I think we will finish in fourth or fifth. The kid is smoking dope.
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