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Post by 00hmh on Oct 29, 2020 9:35:49 GMT -6
If it wasn't a bit macabre and depressing, we could do a forum poll on over under death toll by inauguration. Maybe one for March, sort of a March madness... If we stay steady at todays rate of a 1000 a day, it will be 300K. If deaths double over time by then and peak in January which is reasonably likely we could see 350K to 400K. Hope not. The real bad news is that deaths will continue after the peak. We can hope for all that to not be true or rates to drop precipitously after a peak, and have an earlier peak, but totals by end of March I'd say conservative guess is 350K. That would be rapidly dropping from the present rate to what we have had in our best 2 month stretch. Possible. Doesn't seem to be any reason to expect winter to be as good as summer though, and we suddenly cut deaths by half in the next month.
3 scenarios given depending on behavior. No accounting for vaccine but that's not going to change the projection rapidly.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Oct 29, 2020 9:37:45 GMT -6
I totally agree with you its not going away this year or anytime soon. I do think you will hear less about after the election but it will deff still be discussed. As far as me being sure I have no idea other than what I read on WTHR that said Indiana will be getting dosages of a covid vaccine in November. I am not a big fan of the guy but Im not going to spin it. He said Vaccine in November other media members said no way not until at least January probably later. Its november and there is a vaccine.. Thats pretty cut and dry
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 29, 2020 9:53:50 GMT -6
I looked at that UW site and you can project Indiana or any other state.
Looks like we peak in December before the national projected peak. So that is good. And with BSU on hiatus from Thanksgiving until Jan 19 that is good for Muncie and BSU sports.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 29, 2020 9:58:52 GMT -6
I totally agree with you its not going away this year or anytime soon. I do think you will hear less about after the election but it will deff still be discussed. As far as me being sure I have no idea other than what I read on WTHR that said Indiana will be getting dosages of a covid vaccine in November. I am not a big fan of the guy but Im not going to spin it. He said Vaccine in November other media members said no way not until at least January probably later. Its november and there is a vaccine.. Thats pretty cut and dry I think we might get vaccine in November, but best case is only for first response, maybe nursing homes. The I information I linked above on the last page is a little more pessimistic.
The distribution could be a real cluster f^^^. I would hope the state and feds can get it right, but our public health system has been systematically degraded by the current administration. I am not optimistic that changes until we get a new Congress and vote some money for that which would help for the next pandemic...or maybe the third wave of this one.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Oct 29, 2020 10:42:10 GMT -6
If Biden wins, COVID won't be the top story anymore.
If Trump wins, COVID will be the ONLY story.
CNN says it's "raging out of control." Direct quote from last night around 6pm. Fear mongering at it's worst.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Oct 29, 2020 11:42:25 GMT -6
If Biden wins, COVID won't be the top story anymore. If Trump wins, COVID will be the ONLY story. CNN says it's "raging out of control." Direct quote from last night around 6pm. Fear mongering at it's worst. Raging out of control is a bit extreme but you cant argue the fact that the numbers are way up again |
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 29, 2020 14:06:09 GMT -6
Raging no. It's more insidious. More inexorable gradual increase which we are not trying to stop.
Don't like the idea but a little panic might help if it made people wear masks.
Record cases, hospitalization.
40 states heading up.
Click on that projection link above and you feel a little twinge of fear.
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Post by lmills72 on Oct 29, 2020 17:10:18 GMT -6
Trump throws so much shit against the wall, there's always something that will at least stick a little.
It's kinda like Kid predicting a MAC championship for men's basketball, or that we have the deepest most talented roster in years. I mean, some day it'll be true.
But Kid still gets his ass roasted for all the times he said it and was wrong.
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Post by lmills72 on Oct 29, 2020 17:19:19 GMT -6
Are you guys sure it's not raging? I mean, in my dictionary, the very definition of raging regarding an illness is to "spread very rapidly or uncontrollably."
I kinda think, given that definition, it's raging.
I'll give you that the "out of control" is redundant.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 29, 2020 19:20:56 GMT -6
It's more sneaky than fast right now.
But the next month could become raging.
I hoping in face of that we see the CDC returned to being in charge. Election over Trump can maybe stop saying all is well?
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Oct 30, 2020 8:45:54 GMT -6
Remember when, at the beginning, we were told we needed to wreck our lives and the economy just enough to "flatten the curve"?
Well, it's been flattened, and some of you think that's not enough, mainly because it hasn't been wrecked enough to guarantee a Biden win.
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 30, 2020 9:29:37 GMT -6
Remember when, at the beginning, we were told we needed to wreck our lives and the economy just enough to "flatten the curve"? Well, it's been flattened, and some of you think that's not enough, mainly because it hasn't been wrecked enough to guarantee a Biden win. You are right about one thing. We bungled the lock down. We were too slow to lock down, did not look at alternatives early on before that. Probably would have been hard to avoid a lock down with mask mandates and social distance, but we were not told we were in danger then either. Then after we were forced to lock down with hospital capacity threatened we did not do it universally and adequately.
Had we done it right the lock down would have been shorter and more effective.
Actually contrary to your claim that we flattened the curve we never actually let it be flattened. We turned it downwards, but then reopened just a bit soon after starting late. Worse. On top of that we then did not observe masking and distance during each subsequent stage of the reopening.
That was mismanagement part two. At this time Trump and the administration started a conscious misinformation campaign to stress the reopening WITHOUT the necessary cautions.
The result of this was that what you call a "flat" period on the curve was many multiples higher than the Europeans and Asians achieved for several months in the summer. We suffered a substantial summer surge period in July.
I do not understand how you can ignore the comparison between our performance and that of almost all other developed nations. How can you ignore Trump on tape with Woodward admitting that what he was telling us in March and April he knew to be false? How can you ignore a litany of Trump statements opposing public health measures that worked everywhere else in the world.
Today, the President is telling us we have turned the corner when science says we are facing the very much anticipated second wave that may double deaths over the next 5 months.
We know Trump thinks he has to do that to be reelected. Deny error, assure the faithful all is well. The question is will he actually fight this pandemic after Nov 3?
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Post by villagepub on Oct 30, 2020 10:27:45 GMT -6
Remember when, at the beginning, we were told we needed to wreck our lives and the economy just enough to "flatten the curve"? Well, it's been flattened, and some of you think that's not enough, mainly because it hasn't been wrecked enough to guarantee a Biden win. You are right about one thing. We bungled the lock down. We were too slow to lock down, did not look at alternatives early on before that. Probably would have been hard to avoid a lock down with mask mandates and social distance, but we were not told we were in danger then either. Then after we were forced to lock down with hospital capacity threatened we did not do it universally and adequately.
Had we done it right the lock down would have been shorter and more effective.
Actually contrary to your claim that we flattened the curve we never actually let it be flattened. We turned it downwards, but then reopened just a bit soon after starting late. Worse. On top of that we then did not observe masking and distance during each subsequent stage of the reopening.
That was mismanagement part two. At this time Trump and the administration started a conscious misinformation campaign to stress the reopening WITHOUT the necessary cautions.
The result of this was that what you call a "flat" period on the curve was many multiples higher than the Europeans and Asians achieved for several months in the summer. We suffered a substantial summer surge period in July.
I do not understand how you can ignore the comparison between our performance and that of almost all other developed nations. How can you ignore Trump on tape with Woodward admitting that what he was telling us in March and April he knew to be false? How can you ignore a litany of Trump statements opposing public health measures that worked everywhere else in the world.
Today, the President is telling us we have turned the corner when science says we are facing the very much anticipated second wave that may double deaths over the next 5 months.
We know Trump thinks he has to do that to be reelected. Deny error, assure the faithful all is well. The question is will he actually fight this pandemic after Nov 3?
It's a pandemic, one we only see every hundred or so years. They are extremely difficult to plan for, because each pandemic spreads differently, plus only a portion of what we knew about the 1918 pandemic is helpful in today's world. This is a very unique situation and difficult to plan against. But keep on "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" the shit out of it. |
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Post by 00hmh on Oct 30, 2020 11:37:12 GMT -6
I do not understand how you can ignore the comparison between our performance and that of almost all other developed nations. How can you ignore Trump on tape with Woodward admitting that what he was telling us in March and April he knew to be false? How can you ignore a litany of Trump statements opposing public health measures that worked everywhere else in the world.
Today, the President is telling us we have turned the corner when science says we are facing the very much anticipated second wave that may double deaths over the next 5 months.
We know Trump thinks he has to do that to be reelected. Deny error, assure the faithful all is well. The question is will he actually fight this pandemic after Nov 3?
It's a pandemic, one we only see every hundred or so years. They are extremely difficult to plan for, because each pandemic spreads differently, plus only a portion of what we knew about the 1918 pandemic is helpful in today's world. This is a very unique situation and difficult to plan against. Sounds like you are saying that because each new case may differ, you should ignore all previous cases and best theory about how diseases spread and how to respond? How is it then that Europe and other developed countries followed the accepted wisdom and did better?
Of course it is hard. That's why we had a plan prepared in advance. A plan prepared in advance based on best information available, but ignored. Trump didn't have to come up with a new plan, just follow accepted wisdom. Why did he choose to ignore it?
Perhaps the management team was so bad they didn't know about it? Perhaps they chose not to? Perhaps they threw out everything the previous administration gave them? Perhaps Trump simply does not believe in science, and went with his gut.
But textbooks in the future will use this as a case study on how NOT to do it.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Oct 30, 2020 13:17:11 GMT -6
But keep on "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" the shit out of it. Oh, he will. No matter what anyone else says. |
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