We seem to be proceeding with a nationwide Covid-19 Lock Down Experiment. Those cities, which the past few days have had massive protests and rioting, should (if the Covid-19 lock downs were actually necessary) experience massive spikes in Covid-19 cases. If not, then the lock downs weren't actually necessary and that should bode well for having college sports in the fall.
The US has been averaging about 30,000 Covid-19 deaths per month for March through May; if you believe the numbers. Personally, I think they are inflated. Never the less, they will keep on counting using the current criteria. Will you see a spike to 50,000 deaths in June and another 50,000 in July? We should if the Covid-19 lock downs were actually effective. By the first of August the US death toll should zoom from the current 103,000 to over 200,000. Don't you just love the scientific method?
"The wave of mass protests across the United States will almost certainly set off new chains of infection for the novel coronavirus, experts say.
The virus seems to spread the most when people yell (such as to chant a slogan), sneeze (to expel pepper spray), or cough (after inhaling tear gas). It is transmitted most efficiently in crowds and large gatherings, and research has found that just a few contagious people can infect hundreds of susceptible people around them. The virus can spread especially easily in small, cramped places, such as police vans and jails. As such, for the past several days, the virus has found new environments in which to spread across the United States. At least 75 cities have seen widespread demonstrations and social unrest as Americans have gathered to protest systemic racism and the killing of George Floyd."
75 cities and judging from some of the pictures I've seen of the protest crowds, the only congregations of folks comparable would be the February Super Bowl and some NBA basketball games. True, some (maybe 60%) were wearing masks in large part to hide their identities. A 50% increase in deaths should be expected, but no I don't have a model for it. Doubt if one has been done yet. Maybe we can get that Neil Ferguson guy in England to make one. How many millions of American's did he predict would be dead by now?
Conversely, since most of these folks protesting are young, healthy individuals (similar to the crowds at college football games), I don't think the Covid-19 uptick will amount to much. Unless of course the Looters make a donation of big screen tv's to their local nursing homes. That might set-off a second wave.
His analysis is on days when the total number of protesters is equal or greater than 600,000 (in all protests combined) that should result in an additional 200 to 1,100 deaths eventually from Covid-19. I have sort of lost track, but I think this is week #2 of the protests and not every day has probably reached the 600,000 threshold; however, 15 days of 600,000 crowds at the upper end of the estimate would yield 16,500 deaths, a full month 33,000. As the article indicates, the current daily death count in the USA is approximately 900, so it would basically double.
I agree the marching was definitely a danger as it is to have any large crowd. I have no idea how the scientist modeled this kind of behavior. It is unlike most of the behavior that led to the first wave in many ways.
At least the good news is the article doesn't make quite as pessimistic a forecast. 200-1100 is a range where the middle would be 650. That would be on only a few days where we hit 600K.
There are more than a few "ifs" there. It was outdoors and nobody congregated in one place the whole time. Many did wear masks and many stayed in a relatively small group as acquaintances stayed grouped during much of the marching and gathering.
The Muncie demonstration would be an example where people were more crowded together than I expected, but OTOH was moving in open air much of the time and always outside. A decent percentage were masked, and many although closer together than I would get, were 3-5 feet apart. Definitely not safe, still safer than a crowded lunchroom or party. The big risk is not only proximity but both the amount of virus put into the atmosphere and the movement of air which disperses and dilutes the viral load. I don't want to stand close in front of a shouting unmasked demonstrator, but rather that than sitting at a table with him for an hour where there is little outside air or movement of air.
My bet is we do see some significant uptick but much smaller than 2X the daily death rate. Also likely spread over a 2 week period beginning in 10-14 days. Incubation would be 4-14 days, many relatively asymptomatic and undetected, with symptoms requiring testing another week or so out, and then a lag of reporting on top of that. We may never, as the article you cited points out, be able to separate the results from the results of reopening and people relaxing social distance. That has at an increasing pace over the last 2 weeks.
Another factor that is going to complicate matters is some of the testing facilities are temporarily closed in many of the cities affected by the looting and rioting. It may take several weeks for them to re-open depending on how damaged their facilities are.
Last Edit: Jun 9, 2020 19:44:15 GMT -6 by bsutrack
Ok I am not Doctor but I did sleep on the couch last night.. Here is my over simplified take..
So I think misinformation from the CDC/WHO and all forms of government paired with Media that runs with every story created a panic that just kept going.. Im not saying that Covid is a hoax nor am I buying into any conspiracy theories.
I think we got hit with something that no one had any idea how to handle. It would not have mattered who was in charge the results would/will be about the same.
I think had those in control had just told the truth. "We have never dealt anything like this so we just have to try somethings and see if any of it helps". If this had happened I think it would have cut the confusion.
Reports are now coming out that say surfaces/asymptomatic etc etc are not transmitting the virus at a rate that was initially believed..
So Before I get to 00mh level..
Stay away from Prisons/nursing homes/ Apartment complexes where your packed in like rats and avoid full contact coughs in the face. If you know you have been in contact with someone take it upon yourself get tested..
I also had the antibody test done and I am waiting for the results hopefully they call today.. Ill update when I get the results
What CDC misinformation would you be referring to? Would it be how the CDC analyzes and estimates yearly flu death figures to rates that are greatly overinflated, leading some people to believe that this coronavirus is not much worse than the regular flu?
And what exactly might you have done if they had said "We really don't know what we're facing here but we believe it has the potential to be very dangerous. We recommend you socially distance, stay home/work from home unless necessary, keep your children out of school, close your business if non-essential." Would you have done any of that, or would you have just gone about your day while trying to stay out of prisons/nursing homes/apartment complexes?
I'm sure you, as a responsible human being, would not have shown up to work sick, thinking it was no big deal. I'm sure nobody on these boards has ever done that themselves or knows anyone who's ever done that, so really we just could have relied on good old common sense. Right? All of you guys who are sure you had it back in January/February/March because you had just a little fever and a cough, a tickle in your throat. You stayed home on those days instead of taking the chance of infecting someone else with just a little ol' flu bug, right? Sure you did. Just common sense.
Finally, if you think there were no mistakes made in dealing with this pandemic and that the results would be the same no matter what, I think you just haven't been paying attention.
Last Edit: Jun 10, 2020 13:00:04 GMT -6 by lmills72
Post by lurkinmcgurkin on Jun 10, 2020 13:24:25 GMT -6
The media did what it does: hype up controversy, and bash Trump in the process.
"Millions" were going to die, remember? "He doesn't care!"
Trillions spent, more trillions lost, businesses and people bankrupt, millions unemployed, and for what? To find out that it doesn't spread as easily as we thought, and the numbers were never going to reach what the CDC said, even when they purposefully overinflate COVID-related death numbers. "Hey, this guy got shot 500 times." "Yeah, but he tested positive for COVID!"