Covid-19 Lock Down Experiment

What model are you referring to?

No reason to expect that increase.

There is also no doubt the lockdown reduced cases and deaths.

The reopening has not returned us to activity equivalent to February and March which led to acceleration of rate of infection.

People are exercising caution. Hopefully will continue doing so.

If the rate does not decrease it is a sign we need to more mitigation and slow it, perhaps reopened too soon.

Seems certainly true in some areas. Others not yet clear.

All that makes some sense. Mass gatherings of any kind, sporting events or protests are likely dangerous.

At least we won't be tear gassed at games so Mearns can have a photo opp.

I agree the marching was definitely a danger as it is to have any large crowd. I have no idea how the scientist modeled this kind of behavior. It is unlike most of the behavior that led to the first wave in many ways.

At least the good news is the article doesn't make quite as pessimistic a forecast. 200-1100 is a range where the middle would be 650. That would be on only a few days where we hit 600K.

There are more than a few "ifs" there. It was outdoors and nobody congregated in one place the whole time. Many did wear masks and many stayed in a relatively small group as acquaintances stayed grouped during much of the marching and gathering.

The Muncie demonstration would be an example where people were more crowded together than I expected, but OTOH was moving in open air much of the time and always outside. A decent percentage were masked, and many although closer together than I would get, were 3-5 feet apart. Definitely not safe, still safer than a crowded lunchroom or party.  The big risk is not only proximity but both the amount of virus put into the atmosphere and the movement of air which disperses and dilutes the viral load.  I don't want to stand close in front of a shouting unmasked demonstrator, but rather that than sitting at a table with him for an hour where there is little outside air or movement of air.

My bet is we do see some significant uptick but much smaller than 2X the daily death rate. Also likely spread over a 2 week period beginning in 10-14 days. Incubation would be 4-14 days, many relatively asymptomatic and undetected, with symptoms requiring testing another week or so out, and then a lag of reporting on top of that. We may never, as the article you cited points out, be able to separate the results from the results of reopening and people relaxing social distance. That has at an increasing pace over the last 2 weeks.

So lets just say there is not obvious spike could one argue that the Media and others caused a panic.

Here's a question for 00hmh:

Do you think the protests would be as widespread if masks hadn't become the norm?

It seems to serve as a great way to conceal your identity without raising suspicion, since most people were wearing them in public at all times.

What CDC misinformation would you be referring to? Would it be how the CDC analyzes and estimates yearly flu death figures to rates that are greatly overinflated, leading some people to believe that this coronavirus is not much worse than the regular flu?

And what exactly might you have done if they had said "We really don't know what we're facing here but we believe it has the potential to be very dangerous. We recommend you socially distance, stay home/work from home unless necessary, keep your children out of school, close your business if non-essential." Would you have done any of that, or would you have just gone about your day while trying to stay out of prisons/nursing homes/apartment complexes?

I'm sure you, as a responsible human being, would not have shown up to work sick, thinking it was no big deal. I'm sure nobody on these boards has ever done that themselves or knows anyone who's ever done that, so really we just could have relied on good old common sense. Right? All of you guys who are sure you had it back in January/February/March because you had  just a little fever and a cough, a tickle in your throat. You stayed home on those days instead of taking the chance of infecting someone else with just a little ol' flu bug, right? Sure you did. Just common sense.

Finally, if you think there were no mistakes made in dealing with this pandemic and that the results would be the same no matter what, I think you just haven't been paying attention.

I strongly recommend you not open that door to your brain any farther. Knowledge can be dangerous.