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Post by bsutrack on Jun 24, 2020 22:08:53 GMT -6
The so-called experts have been all over the map. Covid-19 doesn't spread person to person (WHO February, 2020) to later it does. Mask wearing is only important for the people who have Covid-19 to no both infected and non-infected should be wearing them. Covid-19 lives for hours on metal and plastic surfaces, to no it really doesn't live that long. I could go on, but you should get my point.
Actually, Trump has listened to the so-called experts too much. The only major mistake he made, IMHO, was allowing the CDC to attempt to make and distribute the test kits the first month of the pandemic. Fortunately he passed that responsibility off to private industry. Someone believing in more government always solves your problems (i.e. most Democrats) would have kept the CDC in charge of that. Other than that little snafu, Trump has done a better job than most would have.
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 25, 2020 2:05:50 GMT -6
How do you explain the numbers above?
The history of this rolling disaster?
Mask use and testing are clearly key to the success or failure worldwide. No country with widespread use of this strategy has a worse record than we do.
Trump against advice of our experts had chosen failure. He is doing so now.
Early testing in the USA was clearly deficient. He has never supported mask use. His recent statements on both topics, his refusal to wear a mask and mocking those who do, is contributing to our current problem.
Reopening might not have brought the current negative results by simply reversing his clearly faulty position.
The results are clear. Compare to similar populations in the EU. Masks cut the spread. Contact tracing and testing work.
VERY early WHO and CDC opinion, based on early Chinese information, were not sure of that early Chinese origin was not animal to human in origin. They did not know how fast it spread. That was error quickly abandoned.
BEFORE it was widespread here it was clear. Trump announced it would disappear while our experts advised more caution, and ramped up testing. Trump disparaged mask usage even as evidence was clear we had a massive problem. Opposed most mitigation efforts until sobering information forced a response. Now he has disappeared from the front lines of fighting the war.
His latest political trips and convention plans risk making him the typhoid Mary of politics. Everywhere he goes denying or ignoring the disease, it seems on the rise.
You are clearly misinformed.
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 25, 2020 13:13:41 GMT -6
"Misinformed", you rather are a socialist with an agenda. To quote the great Rahm Emanuel, "never let a crisis go to waste"
First your brethren tried overturn the results of a democratic election by using the FBI and CIA to frame Trump for Russian Collusion. After that failed (and currently being exposed by John Durham's investigation), it was on to the Ukraine Hoax which was really ironic because the only American criminal activity involved in Ukraine was the Biden family lining their pockets and leveraging $1 billion of US tax payer's money to fire a prosecutor who was about to uncover it. As soon as that effort failed in the Senate, the Covid-19 opportunity presented itself. A chance to take an illness that is slightly more deadly then the seasonal flu for the general population and manipulate it into an economy killer.
When is 1.7% greater than 98.3%?
In the bizarro world of COVID-19 reporting that is the case – 1.7% is greater than 98.3%. Specifically, deaths among a narrow 1.7% group of the population are greater than deaths from the other 98.3%. Numerically a death may be a death, but from a policy point of view, to be blunt about it, not all deaths are the same.
Fact #1: 1.7% of the population in the US resides in long-term medical care facilities (LTMCFs) and total 5.7 million.
Fact #2: The residents of LTMCFs accounted for 38,800 or 53% of all COVID-19 deaths (based on recent data). The rest of the country, the 98.3%, have experienced approximately 34,600 deaths, or 47% of the nation’s total COVID-19 deaths.
The Death Rate at LTMCFs Is Stunning
That means the death rate, deaths expressed as a percent of those living in medical care institutions, is 0.682%, more than 50 times the death rate of the rest of the population at 0.012%. The death rate for the overall populations is 0.022%.
That should leave you speechless.
We have a COVID-19 problem, but we have an even greater and more serious LTMCF problem that is clouding our understanding of the contagion and therefore what our best public health policies should be. Shutting down the economy, the world wherein the 98.3% live and prosper was too draconian. The feared overloading of the hospital system with emergency patients, which was short-lived, was disproportionately coming from the residents of LTMCFs, not the general public.
What about the Flu and Pneumonia Death Rates in Earlier Years?
To even better understand these death rate figures, it is useful to put them into the context of what we know about death rates from the flu before the arrival of COVID-19. Is the COVID-19 death rate worse, better or about the same as prior flu seasons? We should expect the rates to be worse because there is no vaccine whereas most people get a vaccine shot for the routine flus that are expected each year.
In 2017 the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported that annual deaths from all causes were 2.8 million or 0.866% of the population. The leading causes of death, in order of magnitude, were heart disease, accidents, respiratory disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, flu & pneumonia and suicide.
Just looking at the Flu & Pneumonia (FP) cause, in 2017 it accounted for 55,672 deaths or 0.017% for the population as a whole. Death from FP, as you would expect, fell hardest on people over 75 totaling 38,078 deaths. That translates into a FP death rate of 0.180% for those over-75 group, which is a little more than 10 times the death rate for the overall population. For the rest of the population under 75 the death rate was only 0.006%, or 30 times less than those over 75.
What this means at this point is that in the aggregate the overall COVID-19 death rate is slightly worse than the flu death rate in a prior year (0.022% vs 0.017%). However, for seniors in LTMCFs, the COVID-19 death rate is 100 times greater than the flu and pneumonia DR was for those over 75 in 2017.
Approximately 350 jobs have been killed for each death assigned to Covid-19. Millions of American's economic welfare has been shattered. Angry people vote out of office the folks in charge. Where the Russian and Ukraine Hoaxes have failed, locking down the economy has succeeded, but at a horrible price. Hope you and your brethren enjoy your victory. It's going be like living in a burned down house for 2021-2025.
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Post by lmills72 on Jun 25, 2020 14:04:07 GMT -6
You forgot all the BLM stuff the socialists created to make the president and his administration look like idiots. Goodness, is there no low they won't stoop to? Tsk, tsk.
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 25, 2020 15:43:30 GMT -6
"Misinformed", you rather are a socialist with an agenda. To quote the great Rahm Emanuel, "never let a crisis go to waste" Approximately 350 jobs have been killed for each death assigned to Covid-19. Millions of American's economic welfare has been shattered. Angry people vote out of office the folks in charge. Where the Russian and Ukraine Hoaxes have failed, locking down the economy has succeeded, but at a horrible price. Hope you and your brethren enjoy your victory. It's going be like living in a burned down house for 2021-2025. First. This disease is not the flu. Unless you want to compare to the 1918 flu. If it were "just a little more deadly" the whole world would not be suffering so much. This is an international crisis.
Second, the recession is NOT worse here than in Europe where they have had a much better pandemic health response.
So if we had competently responded we would have fewer deaths, and certainly might have reopened and had a better economy. Economists are pretty convinced the job loss was demand driven and would have been quite severe regardless of the lock down strategy. In Sweden, the poster child for no lockdown they do not have a better economy as a result.
Masks and using weeks in January February to prepare testing response which we did not do would have saved many lives. That would have made the lock down shorter and probably put us on the curve where the EU is today. We had a 3 or 4 week head start, and essentially did nothing. Trump made the poor decision to deny, deny, deny. Not lead and respond competently.
Third, the health care in issue with LTC patients is severe, I agree. We don't do a very good job insuring the elderly residents safety. That is without CoVID being considered. It has cost us. But that argument cuts two ways. Why is Europe better than that? Why is their public health care infrastructure better? That is hardly an indictment of socialism.
Besides your argument is bogus because many of those EU states with lower death rate, for example Germany, actually have more people in LTC. And while they have suffered there, not as much. OTOH, if your argument is we should just let those old folks die, I don't buy that...
If you think this is just a liberal plot, and did not like the impeachment or like the response people have given Trump in his posture on the police violence issue, OK. But, this issue is distinguished clearly. AND. Trump did not cover himself with honor and glory in either of those cases, although he did not cause as many deaths.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jun 25, 2020 17:54:18 GMT -6
Florida ground zero update.. Most if not all businesses and tourists I have overheard are pissed off about masks being worn. At resteraunts you are only required to wear the mask when walking to your table or waiting on your seat. As soon as you are seated the masks come off. Stores have posted signs but if every store you enter has more people just ignoring the signs and workers. No way to enforce it
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jun 25, 2020 17:55:00 GMT -6
Florida ground zero update.. Most if not all businesses and tourists I have overheard are pissed off about masks being worn. At resteraunts you are only required to wear the mask when walking to your table or waiting on your seat. As soon as you are seated the masks come off. Stores have posted signs but if every store you enter has more people just ignoring the signs and workers. No way to enforce it
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 25, 2020 18:50:43 GMT -6
Florida ground zero update.. Most if not all businesses and tourists I have overheard are pissed off about masks being worn. At resteraunts you are only required to wear the mask when walking to your table or waiting on your seat. As soon as you are seated the masks come off. Stores have posted signs but if every store you enter has more people just ignoring the signs and workers. No way to enforce it It would take public education and leadership. Given that the leaders in Florida took their advice from the President and took that party line, it is a lot harder to educate the public. The fact it is now a badge of honor to ignore masking for political reasons, it is as you say hard for merchants to go against the grain.
Of course you could actually have the public officials be visibly and urgently explaining things and even enforce it instead of "recommending" it halfheartedly and passing the buck on enforcement to the merchants.
You may be right that after hearing the message from on high for 5 or 6 months it is impossible to change. Which leaves the option of lock down. And reopening only after the curve is headed down and on strict condition of masking?
Wait, that is what the CDC recommended a couple of months ago.
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Post by cardfan on Jun 25, 2020 19:15:29 GMT -6
Florida ground zero update.. Most if not all businesses and tourists I have overheard are pissed off about masks being worn. At resteraunts you are only required to wear the mask when walking to your table or waiting on your seat. As soon as you are seated the masks come off. Stores have posted signs but if every store you enter has more people just ignoring the signs and workers. No way to enforce it You can’t fix stupid. Especially when it’s willful. |
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 25, 2020 22:43:09 GMT -6
So if we had competently responded we would have fewer deaths, and certainly might have reopened and had a better economy. Economists are pretty convinced the job loss was demand driven and would have been quite severe regardless of the lock down strategy. In Sweden, the poster child for no lockdown they do not have a better economy as a result.
Not sure how many of your inaccurate statements I am going to take time to correct tonight, but this is an easy one. Sweden's economy actually grew in the first quarter of 2020 after it opted against a full virus lockdown. From a CNBC article: "The Swedish economy expanded at a far superior rate than many of its European counterparts over the first three months of the year, data published Friday showed, following the government’s decision not to impose a full lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus. The Nordic country’s statistics office reported gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic health, grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the first quarter. Sweden’s GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, when seasonally adjusted and compared to the final three months of 2019. The median forecasters in a Reuters poll of economists had expected to see a 0.6% contraction on a quarterly basis." Do you ever fact check anything your spout off about? |
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 25, 2020 22:50:43 GMT -6
You forgot all the BLM stuff the socialists created to make the president and his administration look like idiots. Goodness, is there no low they won't stoop to? Tsk, tsk. I think with all the destruction of property, burning and looting of businesses, and now this crusade to destroy statues and monuments across the country (some of which make no sense like the Statue of Ulysses Grant and Matthias Baldwin, an abolitionist), BLM is doing just fine for themselves. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 26, 2020 6:00:33 GMT -6
So if we had competently responded we would have fewer deaths, and certainly might have reopened and had a better economy. Economists are pretty convinced the job loss was demand driven and would have been quite severe regardless of the lock down strategy. In Sweden, the poster child for no lock down they do not have a better economy as a result. Not sure how many of your inaccurate statements I am going to take time to correct tonight, but this is an easy one. Sweden's economy actually grew in the first quarter of 2020 after it opted against a full virus lockdown. From a CNBC article: Sweden’s GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, when seasonally adjusted and compared to the final three months of 2019. The median forecasters in a Reuters poll of economists had expected to see a 0.6% contraction on a quarterly basis." Do you ever fact check anything your spout off about? Perhaps my statement slightly too strong. More precisely, I'd say they didn't have so much better economy after all. www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-didnt-impose-a-lockdown-its-economy-is-just-as-bad-as-its-neighbors-who-did-2020-06-25Of course we suffer due to a lock down. And due to pandemic consequences. Had we not locked down world wide as much as we did there would have been MANY more deaths. Much greater economic impact from that than we suffered. Death means permanent loss of productivity, not temporary unemployment. There is no free lunch.
The surprise here is how much the difference due to lock down actually is. Sweden as economists predicted could not escape consequence by declaring business as usual. Which by the way they did not. They did close universities for example, they did recommend social distance. And Swedes complied with that to a greater degree than we are doing now.
Why were things not "normal" like a flu season? Easy. It wasn't flu.
Why were they not greatly better than their neighbors?
First. They had higher death toll than neighbors, and that has economic consequence. Human life has economic value.
Second and more important, the economic harm of a world wide pandemic is due to natural reduced demand as people do NOT act like all is normal. It is not normal. Their citizens and the rest of the world hunkered down. Sensibly. Their economy is interconnected with the world. Notice how when our economy "reopened" it did not magically make things normal. And the economic pluses are now threatened by reality. This was not just flu season, or similar to it, in impact. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 26, 2020 7:59:25 GMT -6
So if we had competently responded we would have fewer deaths, and certainly might have reopened and had a better economy. Economists are pretty convinced the job loss was demand driven and would have been quite severe regardless of the lock down strategy. In Sweden, the poster child for no lockdown they do not have a better economy as a result. Not sure how many of your inaccurate statements I am going to take time to correct tonight, but this is an easy one. A debate about the relative merits in Sweden of a lock down or not is a side trip. It is not relevant to the US Excuse me if that side trip is my fault.
Let's look at the important facts here. And the important inaccurate statements.
1. This is NOT the flu as you maintain.
2. We needed a much better public health response. We did not get it.
3. The pandemic was going to hurt the economy whatever we did, it was going to cost lives.
What I am concerned with here is we are bungling the reopening, as well as having delayed effective public health response initially. We pay a larger cost in lives and in dollars and cents.
Our lock down was costly in large part because it was delayed and carried out in an uncoordinated manner. But, worse than that, with an earlier public health response before lock down, we would not only have saved lives but had less economic impact.
Our reopening was risky but sensible if we had observed the recommendations issued by the White House and CDC. The top government leaders in Washington are ignoring their own expert's recommendations after muzzling the experts, editing the recommendations, and delaying issuance.
You seem to say we didn't need a response, didn't need a lock down, and the President was right it was just the flu and would go away. Let's stick to that point.
This is not a liberal plot. It is a public health emergency. A case where we need good government response by competent leadership.
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Post by lmills72 on Jun 26, 2020 16:13:01 GMT -6
Just a quick anecdotal show of hands ... how many people know of someone who's died of the flu? Not COVID-19, just the plain old flu.
I've known plenty of folks who've died of heart disease, accidents, cancer, strokes, diabetes, even a few suicides. I've never known anybody to die of the flu.
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 26, 2020 16:58:09 GMT -6
Just a quick anecdotal show of hands ... how many people know of someone who's died of the flu? Not COVID-19, just the plain old flu. I've known plenty of folks who've died of heart disease, accidents, cancer, strokes, diabetes, even a few suicides. I've never known anybody to die of the flu. The flu does kill. It is less severe than Covid. Those I know who have suffered from Covid several say they have never been so sick. Rarely even with severe flu do you see someone who is so weak and so stressed. But I am sure flu often also kills in the same way as Covid. It finds a weakened person, able to live without that kind of illness on top of everything, but the infection does the deed.
Not only is this bug extremely contagious, but it has impact on more organs of the body and causes more severe lasting damage even for the survivors.
The R factor here is higher than flu, more serious here due to lack of vaccine, lack of previous infections and resulting immunity. Given it is more deadly as well, without even the treatment available for the flu, it is only comparable to the 1918 flu where the new bug ran rampant world wide.
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