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Post by rmcalhoun on Jun 26, 2020 20:40:24 GMT -6
Bars now closed again Florida
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 26, 2020 22:05:11 GMT -6
They need to ban large gatherings.
Maybe go back to whatever Stage 1 was, but this time include mandatory masks.
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 26, 2020 22:35:29 GMT -6
Masks and using weeks in January February to prepare testing response which we did not do would have saved many lives. That would have made the lock down shorter and probably put us on the curve where the EU is today. We had a 3 or 4 week head start, and essentially did nothing. Trump made the poor decision to deny, deny, deny. Not lead and respond competently.
On January 22, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) mission to China issued a statement that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission. The first reports of reports of limited human-to human transmission of Covid-19 outside of China occurred on January 28th, 2020. Two days later, on January 30th, WHO issued a warning to the world concerning Covid-19. Trump issued his travel ban for non-American citizens coming to the US from China on February 2nd. This is all outlined in the WHO Timeline. www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19You say Trump should have been doing something in January. How could he possibility be doing something that wasn't recognized as being a problem until at the end of January? He's not omnificent. I'm sure some folks in China knew what was going on. China seemed to be using most of January to stock-up all over the world on medical supplies. Some of which they then sold back to the US at inflated prices. apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8Maybe if we had a better system of spies in China, but that got destroyed in 2010 under the Obama Administration. foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/15/botched-cia-communications-system-helped-blow-cover-chinese-agents-intelligence/Testing kits? China didn't share the genetic sequence for Covid-19 until January 12, 2020. Simple fact, you can't build a test kit until you know what you are testing for. The CDC then botched things in February by producing test kits that didn't work. Thank God Trump striped them of that responsibility at the being of March when private industry took over. Trump being a businessman made this adjustment possible. A career politician would have given the CDC at least another month to fail, maybe more. No where in this timeline do I see a failure to lead by Trump. |
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 26, 2020 23:16:01 GMT -6
Besides your argument is bogus because many of those EU states with lower death rate, for example Germany, actually have more people in LTC. And while they have suffered there, not as much. OTOH, if your argument is we should just let those old folks die, I don't buy that...
Germany seems to be your idealized model. Fair enough, they have done a good job. Let's look at their current numbers compared to the US. US: 127,000 deaths with 2,510,000 positive tests for a 5.06% death rate. Germany: 9,024 deaths with 194,000 positive test for a 4.65% death rate. Is 0.41% that much better? You also have to consider what is being counted. In the US it's Covid-19 with other underlying conditions. In the US, as one Health Care Worker so well put it, "you could test positive for Covid-19, walk out of the testing facility and get run over by a bus crossing the street, die and be counted as a Covid-19 death. Some (most?) countries only count folks who actually die only of Covid-19. I don't know if Germany is one of these countries. If so, their deaths could be much greater if they count Covid with other conditions and not just Covid. The US has been doing this for flu since 2016. Before 2016, deaths due to pneumonia were tallied separately, after 2016 it became flu with pneumonia which greatly inflated the death's due to the seasonal flu. Reasons for this? Your guess is as good as mine. The CDC has continued this practice with Covid-19. Don't be asinine with your comment about wanting old folks to die. NO ONE wants that. You want those Long Term Care Facilities and their employees locked down as well as possible. You certainly don't want to send back into them Covid-19 positive patients like the Governors of New York and New Jersey did. Of course Cuomo got a nice $1 million kick-back from Nursing Home Owners after he gave them legal protection from being sued for deaths. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/26/andrew-cuomo-nursing-home-execs-immunityBack to Germany, the thing that jumps out to me are the only 194,000 positive tests. Germany is a country of approximately 84 million. That means only 0.2% of their population has been infected. I don't know if this really qualifies for a Covid-19 outbreak. Seems to me they are still awaiting theirs to occur. If that's the case, you might want to revisit them as your idealized model. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 26, 2020 23:32:49 GMT -6
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 26, 2020 23:39:44 GMT -6
Our lock down was costly in large part because it was delayed and carried out in an uncoordinated manner. But, worse than that, with an earlier public health response before lock down, we would not only have saved lives but had less economic impact.
I think you are going to need to take this one up with the designers of our Constitution. The United States is a federal system of government. A federal system of government is one that divides the powers of government between the national (federal) government and state and local governments. The Constitution of the United States established the federal system, also known as federalism. Each Governor seemed to want to do their own thing, even the Republican ones. I don't remember Trump trying to coordinate their lock down efforts, but I do remember him attempting to coordinate their re-opening. Most of the Democrat Governors basically told him to get lost. www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/governors-shrug-trump-s-reopening-plan-say-more-funds-testing-n1186476So the re-opening certainly has been uncoordinated. Maybe a Democratic President would have had a better chance of getting the Governors of New York, California, and Illinois to cooperate, or maybe if they had been Republican Governors. Bottom line, in a Federal system, they don't have to. |
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 26, 2020 23:51:52 GMT -6
Just a quick anecdotal show of hands ... how many people know of someone who's died of the flu? Not COVID-19, just the plain old flu. I've known plenty of folks who've died of heart disease, accidents, cancer, strokes, diabetes, even a few suicides. I've never known anybody to die of the flu. And do you know of someone who has died of Covid-19? Flu deaths vary from year to year in 2019 there were around 35,000. 2017 was a particular bad year with 55,000 deaths. Current death toll from Covid-19 is 127,000. Do you know anyone who died of pneumonia over the last few years. Chances are their death was listed as flu with pneumonia. That's the way the CDC has been inflating flu deaths since 2016. Now they have switched that same strategy over to Covid-19. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 26, 2020 23:58:19 GMT -6
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 27, 2020 0:10:36 GMT -6
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 27, 2020 0:42:52 GMT -6
A couple of your articles were "pay walled", but for the most part they harped on the lack of test kits. As I have pointed out, CDC failed there in February. Trump corrected that by March by moving that to private industry. A career politician would not have moved that fast. A career politician would have given CDC at least another month, probably more to fail. Career politicians believe in big government being the solution to all your problems; hence, the CDC should have been the solution to making test kits. I'm not an engineer, but I'm guessing designing and manufacturing test kits for something you didn't get the gnome for until mid-January isn't the easiest thing to do. You seem to be forgetting something. What was going on during January and up to February 5th? Yes, Trump was being impeached in the Senate on bogus Ukraine charges; something that has only happened what 3 times in American history? Maybe the Democrat members of the US Congress shouldn't have been distracting Trump with him fighting for his political life? As for Trump's first 2 (I would say 3) years in office, what did he do? I would say mainly fight off the Russian Collusion Hoax. Wasn't that the Democratic strategy with Operation Crossfire Hurricane; hamstring the Trump Presidency so he couldn't undo the Obama legacy? Seems to me it worked pretty well. Of course hamstringing a presidency does have consequences. Maybe this was one? Hey, this has been a fun Friday evening and Saturday morning. We'll have to do it again some time. |
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 27, 2020 0:57:41 GMT -6
You do realize the problem here is all these states allowed elective surgeries to be done again as part of their restart process? I believe the stat for Arizona for example is 15% of hospital beds are being taken up by Covid-19 patients. If they go back to eliminating elective surgeries, which I believe they have done in Texas, at least in the Houston area, this will go away. Of course if I had an elective surgery, I would want it done. One person's elective surgery is another person's necessary surgery. |
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Post by bsutrack on Jun 27, 2020 1:43:21 GMT -6
It's not spontaneous. The cases have always been there. Here's graph for the last 7 cold and flu seasons:  The bottom red line is for cold and flu season fall of 2019 to summer 2020. The upper 6 curves are seasons 2013-14 through 2018-19. The article was only through the first week of April, but the trend is pretty clear. All the previous years track reasonably well as does 2019-20 through the fall and January. Then suddenly around late February through March the number of pneumonia cases falls off. Either we suddenly found a cure for much of the pneumonia affecting the US , or they have been counted somewhere else. That somewhere else is Covid-19. Here's the link to the source article: www.renegadetribune.com/us-pneumonia-deaths-have-plummeted-in-2020-mortality-now-attributed-to-covid-19/I did get a chuckle out of a few of the cartoons. |
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Post by lmills72 on Jun 27, 2020 5:34:05 GMT -6
Just a quick anecdotal show of hands ... how many people know of someone who's died of the flu? Not COVID-19, just the plain old flu. I've known plenty of folks who've died of heart disease, accidents, cancer, strokes, diabetes, even a few suicides. I've never known anybody to die of the flu. And do you know of someone who has died of Covid-19? Yes, two. And two more who were hospitalized for extended periods, one on a ventilator for more than a month. So the question remains, do you know of anyone who has died of the flu? |
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 27, 2020 8:48:47 GMT -6
Renegade Tribune is the White Nationalist conspiracy theorist media outlet founded by the author of this article who has no medical credentials.
The analysis (well there isn't really any there) conveniently leaves out the fact that pnuemonia is an opportunistic disease taking advantage of weakened condition caused by other disease.
If there is identifiable condition that leads to pnuemonia it is listed appropriately as COD. During flu season Flu and Pneumonia are both listed separately on different lines of the forms. Where there is no identifiable cause for the pneumonia it is listed as sole cause of death or "natural" causes. Note also that COVID causes other organ failure and can lead to death in ways in no way involving pnuemonia.
Here are guidelines for reporting Death by COVID
Since we have many more overall deaths February to the present, and you do not believe it is COVID. Why exactly is that? That sure looks to scientists and the casual observer to be related to the spike in COVID cases.
The statistical data is not reported by officials in CDC but by local officials and physicians. It is not a plot. Pneumonia and COVID are listed separately for the reasons in the guidelines linked below.
BTW if you go to the source cited here the seasonal flu and pneumonia stats at a glance look quite normal.
Medical researchers with actual medical credentials don't seem to question the reported data on COVID other than complaining our system is antiquated, inadequate. The prevailing expert opinion is that there is a greater likelihood the data under reports deaths due to COVID.
I am surprised your cited authority the conspiracy theorist doesn't list heart failure as an explanation for COVID deaths. After all many people die of COVID after their heart is unable to function due to the ravages of organ failure or complications like pneumonia which overload the respiratory system and stress the cardiovascular system and cause death.
His and your logic is like saying the victim of an automobile accident might die of bleeding, and that should be listed as the COD, and the accident not mentioned.
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 27, 2020 8:58:55 GMT -6
You do realize the problem here is all these states allowed elective surgeries to be done again as part of their restart process? So you believe all those other admissions are just normal pneumonia, AND believe that the hospitals being crowded much more than normal is elective surgery spiking?
Don't you think there is better evidence that "the problem here" is the spike in disease?
You may be right that hospitals are unprepared for pandemic and have to stop elective surgery. If that is a problem I agree we should address it.
I do not, did not, see Donald Trump supporting more spending on pandemic preparation though. He did in fact CUT that spending in his first two years. He now talks about cutting spending in response. After all it is going to go away any day now.
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