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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 19, 2017 17:43:53 GMT -6
Great day for the Colts.
The Giants very unexpectedly won, which puts the #3 pick back in play for the Colts. I had almost written that off after the Giants lost to the Niners.
Other teams in play for a top 4 pick won, including the Texans and Bucs and the Chargers are currently up 30. And one of Cincy or Denver will be saddled with their 4th win because they are playing each other.
Colt will end the day tied for 4th with the Bears, and one of the Bengals/Broncos.
I have great confidence that the Colts will prevail in any tie-breaker due to the low quality of their wins. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 19, 2017 20:11:02 GMT -6
It's such a long season.
We will live in suspense. Every week exciting possibilities.
This is NFL football at its most exciting.
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Post by gocardsgo on Nov 19, 2017 21:58:56 GMT -6
I say the Colts win two more stupid games to blow a top 5 pick.
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 21, 2017 23:05:42 GMT -6
Here are projected season wins by FootballOutsiders, based on power ranking and remaining schedule strength:
Cleve 1.8 SF 3.0 NYG 4.1 Colts 5.2 Chi 5.3 Miami 5.6 Den 5.8 TB 5.9 NYJ 5.9
So, the Colts hold on a top 4 spot is very, very tenuous. They could even end up out of the top 10. Let's earn that loss against Tennessee and start the stretch run on the right foot....I mean...uh...wrong foot....well, you know what I mean.
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Post by gocardsgo on Nov 21, 2017 23:43:36 GMT -6
Here are projected season wins by FootballOutsiders, based on power ranking and remaining schedule strength:
Cleve 1.8 SF 3.0 NYG 4.1 Colts 5.2 Chi 5.3 Miami 5.6 Den 5.8 TB 5.9 NYJ 5.9
So, the Colts hold on a top 4 spot is very, very tenuous. They could even end up out of the top 10. Let's earn that loss against Tennessee and start the stretch run on the right foot....I mean...uh...wrong foot....well, you know what I mean.
Let's start it with a broken foot! |
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 28, 2017 18:54:01 GMT -6
Taking stock:
assuming the top two spots are out of the question, here are the contenders for 3rd and remaining spots:
NYG 2-8 .511 Denver 3-7 .483 Colts 3-7 .489 Chic 3-7 .557 Hou 4-6 .511 NYJ 4-6 .517 Miami 4-6 .511 TB 4-6 .563
For some reason, I was thinking that the first tie breaker was quality of wins, but actually it is total winning percentage of all opponents. That is the percentages shown above. And you see that my tie-breaker confidence was misplaced, Denver currently has the better tie breaker over the colts...but it's close enough that it could easily flip.
So obviously we root for the colts to lose and the other teams above to win. Although it is true that Houston losses help lower the colts opponent win percentage, since we play them twice. And we definitely want all other teams on the colts schedule to lose...especially Jville and Tenn since they also count double on our opp win %.
Of course the most important thing is for the colts to keep losing. I firmly believe that if we lose out, we will pick third. However parity will make that a tough row to hoe.
Most mocks I see have the LA QB's Rosen and Darnold going in the top 3. Often Saquon Barkely goes in the top 3 with them. Frequently to SF at the two spot. My dream scenario is to get the 3 pick and trade to a team lusting for whichever LA QB is still on the board at that point. And if we can at least stay in the top 5, there is some chance of trading to a QB starved team or else having the pick of the defensive talent, e.g. Bradley Chubb or Minkah Fitzpatrick.
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Post by gocardsgo on Dec 17, 2017 18:40:16 GMT -6
9ers pick up their 4th win, placing the Colts at the #3 draft position currently. If the NYG wanted to go ahead and win a game or two, in the final 2 weeks, that'd be stellar!
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Post by gocardsgo on Dec 17, 2017 18:43:25 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2017 15:52:56 GMT -6
Can I assume the Colt draft pick was secure before Chuck tried to harpoon it?
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Post by gocardsgo on Dec 31, 2017 16:10:54 GMT -6
Can I assume the Colt draft pick was secure before Chuck tried to harpoon it? According to ESPN, had the Colts lost they'd have gotten the #2 pick w/ the Giants winning. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2017 19:34:53 GMT -6
Colts cut cord on Chuck
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2018 7:32:12 GMT -6
In a fitting end he wins the one it made sense to lose.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2018 12:09:40 GMT -6
In a fitting end he wins the one it made sense to lose. Yep. Yep. Yep... |
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Post by williamtsherman on Mar 17, 2018 12:38:16 GMT -6
So things worked out pretty well in the end as far as the overall pick haul. Of course it may not be the end as more pick jockeying is still possible
And a lot depends on who falls to 6....but it's looking good that maybe 4 qb's could go in the top 5
By the way, anyone who wants quenton Nelson needs to explain why he is not a tackle and then explain why you spend a top ten pick on someone with those limitations
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 17, 2018 12:49:48 GMT -6
By the way, anyone who wants quenton Nelson needs to explain why he is not a tackle... Andrew Luck, he might want him at 3. QB's I guess I get. So important that even if not the very best makes such impact. Trading down looks like they get two good players at least, maybe one as good within a hair of the 3 pick. Maybe get Nelson there. |
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