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Post by rmcalhoun on Feb 15, 2018 20:04:58 GMT -6
When I look at Person's stats this year and last, I see pretty much the same player. The difference this year is that he's playing in a backcourt that has completely and utterly imploded. Two expected contributors completely gone and another who might as well be.
Can anyone in the know enlighten us on Kiapway's deal? There is clearly something going on there. Yea the numbers do not lie but I see the exact same player. Circumstances may have caused a bit of regression but other than that same thing
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Post by cbcjanney on Feb 15, 2018 20:16:10 GMT -6
Reiterating others, I like the "edge" and the toughness, and it's probably to our benefit that he can get opponents riled up at times. If he were head and shoulders above opposing players, I'd give him more liberty to flaunt it. However, there are lots of metrics on the KenPom site that show he's not been all that special this year. I can't link anything since you have to be a subscriber (maybe some of you are), and some of the calculations he does/uses are really complicated, but I'll recap some items below: Tayler Persons - -- Offensive Efficiency Rating 2018 overall = 99.5 (this is currently 10th-best among MAC point guards) vs 2017 = 107.4 (to be interpreted as an 8% decline) Offensive Rating is a detailed calc largely influenced by all Offensive Categories plus minutes played & how many times or possessions one touches the ball) KenPom uses this, but it was invented by a Dean Oliver who wrote a book entitled Basketball on Paper -- Offensive Rating 2018 in-conference play = 93.9 (also currently 10th-best among MAC point guards) vs 2017 = 111.7 Last year TP was 4% better in conference play than he was overall, this year he's tailed off 6% since MAC play began, and he's around 15% poorer in MAC'18 than MAC'17 -- Against Tier A competition (top 65 or so teams when played), TP in '17 had a game rating of 103 vs ALA, while in '18 he had ratings of 68, 77, & 117 vs OKLA/ORE/ND -- 3rd among MAC point guards in Usage (defined as % of possessions being the last to touch the ball, whether FGA, FTA, or TO) behind German (NIU) and Wilder (WMU) KenPom does state that as Usage increases, it's more difficult to maintain a high Offensive Efficiency Rating. That helps to explain his standing on the BSU team where TP's Usage is easily highest of BSU players but his Rating is below, in order, Mallers, Sellers, Moses, & Teague (as well as Tyler and Walker were higher) and only ahead of, in order, Ish, Kiapway, & Gunn. But basically it's saying that our guy who touches the ball the most is the least-efficient productive starter. -- 6th among MAC point guards in Scoring, well behind the above two NIU/WMU guys, and in a pack where the 3rd-7th guys are all within 1.5 pts -- 10th among MAC point guards in Turnover Rate (TO's per possession played), ahead of only Ringo (MIAO) and Roundtree (CMU) -- 3rd among MAC point guards in Assist Rate, behind Ringo and Clark (BUFF) All in all, I think we 100% recognize he hit some really clutch shots on multiple occasions when our other guys may not have had the balls to shoot it. But I also think those several shots have superseded that we're overall NOT getting great point guard play (probably a little better than middle-of-the-pack MAC) and by all indicators poorer PG play than we did last year. And at 22-1/2 yrs old and a 4th-yr player, he might have topped out collegiately and may well not improve next year either. Can we improve as a team above that 160-170 team ranking next year without any improvement in point guard play? What's curious would be has his attitude toward opponents caused other MAC teams to want to stop him more, explaining the year over year dropoff, and has his overall persona caused him to overly want to be the dominant/heroic player resulting in poor shot/pass selections during games and even at the end (I'll venture to say that at least vs ND & BG if he doesn't make those shots, there's lots of criticism here on the board as to why we weren't running anything toward the basket when a 2-pointer wins it, and he just dribbled around then pulled up and shot a 3.) Ugghh even 00hmh stopped reading this post because it was too long. Any research you can dig up on how he shoots during a quarter moon cycle on Tuesdays? Who gives a shit really? He’s a baller, he’s a JYD which we’ve begged for and he produces. He’s not perfect or a finished product by a long shot. He’s maddening. He’s a freaking winner. I’m glad as hell we’ve got him. Sorry to trouble you - I guess I'm not as high on him based on his stats as you are based on your feelings. Didn't know there was a posting max either - I figured most of us were BSU college-educated and could handle 4 paragraphs and a little math.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2018 20:30:58 GMT -6
Foul mouthed, poor representative of BSU basketball is not. He can be tough without throwing the F bomb at pretty much everybody. Most of the venues we play in the crowds are kinda sparse and it's easy for people in the stands to hear what's said. He crosses the line when he curses at fans. That part is not necessary. I don’t like him, whether it’s on my team or some other team.
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 15, 2018 20:34:32 GMT -6
His success last year, especially in the MAC is why he gets more attention this year. Not attitude...
Whatever the slight difference in performance, and however you measure it, he is a good player for us.
Your argument about PG statistics is not convincing to me because we are not using him as a "pure" PG. And probably don't want a pure PG.
He is a player who scores with the ball in his hands, that is true, and from the beginning of his career here we have built a good deal of the offense around his ability to use a ball screen. We will have several other players at guard next year who may be better suited to a play making role, but the offense will probably use a lot of ball screens all around the perimeter. More what we did when we had more guards this year. Both Walton and El-Amin are likely to play more as play makers, with Walton using the drive more even than Persons. Both will look more like that PG stereotype in how they are used.
And any way you cut it, with improved depth up front and less firepower shooting from the perimeter, Persons will probably play away from the ball than this year. And the offense will be less guard first play, much as we are doing now as we go to more front court scoring with some combination of Moses, Teague, Hazen and Mallers always in the game and getting more inside touches.
Not sure here whether we will really have a pure PG role next year either, I doubt that, but he may look more like the off guard, because he is going to be one of our best outside shooters. That will quite likely get him some inside out looks.
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 15, 2018 20:35:25 GMT -6
Foul mouthed, poor representative of BSU basketball is not. He can be tough without throwing the F bomb at pretty much everybody. Most of the venues we play in the crowds are kinda sparse and it's easy for people in the stands to hear what's said. He crosses the line when he curses at fans. That part is not necessary. I don’t like him, whether it’s on my team or some other team. Except of course when he makes good plays?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2018 20:44:52 GMT -6
Nope. I have zero respect for someone who needs to act like that in a public venue. I assume our coach has addressed this......no, probably not.
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Post by realitycheck on Feb 15, 2018 20:49:47 GMT -6
Ugghh even 00hmh stopped reading this post because it was too long. Any research you can dig up on how he shoots during a quarter moon cycle on Tuesdays? Who gives a shit really? He’s a baller, he’s a JYD which we’ve begged for and he produces. He’s not perfect or a finished product by a long shot. He’s maddening. He’s a freaking winner. I’m glad as hell we’ve got him. Sorry to trouble you - I guess I'm not as high on him based on his stats as you are based on your feelings. Didn't know there was a posting max either - I figured most of us were BSU college-educated and could handle 4 paragraphs and a little math. Sorry I’m not that deep. I guess I’m more old school and haven’t really paid much attention to things like sabremetrics or some other highly analytical measurement. Maybe I should. All I know is TP is a playmaker and a difference maker. Despite all of our flaws and we are flawed, he gives us a chance to maybe go beyond just Cleveland. And trust me when I say he drives me absolutely nuts with some of his bullshit and decision making. I just think he deserves more credit for his talents versus his flaws.
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 15, 2018 20:54:32 GMT -6
I believe the numbers are consistent with RC's conclusion.
This team has a very small chance to go beyond Cleveland. This year.
But, if we do Persons will be a big part of it.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Feb 15, 2018 21:02:02 GMT -6
Love him, Hate him or do not care either way without him we would be in really bad shape.
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Post by cbcjanney on Feb 15, 2018 21:21:11 GMT -6
Sorry to trouble you - I guess I'm not as high on him based on his stats as you are based on your feelings. Didn't know there was a posting max either - I figured most of us were BSU college-educated and could handle 4 paragraphs and a little math. Sorry I’m not that deep. I guess I’m more old school and haven’t really paid much attention to things like sabremetrics or some other highly analytical measurement. Maybe I should. I'd suggest not to discard the "sabremetrics" and analytics. Many of the power 5 programs now have full-time guys in basketball and football who deal only with the numbers and of course baseball is chock full of it. For people who like that kind of thing, there's tons of fascinating blogs and articles available that weren't around 5-10 yrs ago. Oftentimes, the metrics confirm the eye-test and in BSU's case, I'd say the numbers back up what we think we're seeing on the court for almost every player -- except for TP. He's the one where the numbers paint a bleaker picture than most folks' perceptions of him are. Hopefully his intangibles overcome where his numbers are now - or better yet, hopefully his numbers improve too. One other interesting, but disheartening, factoid - KenPom has us as the 12th Luckiest team in the nation so far out of 351. I won't get lengthy as to how that's calculated but....winning after trailing late, opponents missing key players vs us, and catching teams on bad shooting nights are part of that equation.
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Post by proctorp on Feb 15, 2018 21:32:54 GMT -6
The guy is a gamer. Would I like to see him in shape and not mouthy? Sure, but he is what he is....a tough son of a B.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Feb 15, 2018 21:36:15 GMT -6
Sorry I’m not that deep. I guess I’m more old school and haven’t really paid much attention to things like sabremetrics or some other highly analytical measurement. Maybe I should. I'd suggest not to discard the "sabremetrics" and analytics. Many of the power 5 programs now have full-time guys in basketball and football who deal only with the numbers and of course baseball is chock full of it. For people who like that kind of thing, there's tons of fascinating blogs and articles available that weren't around 5-10 yrs ago. Oftentimes, the metrics confirm the eye-test and in BSU's case, I'd say the numbers back up what we think we're seeing on the court for almost every player -- except for TP. He's the one where the numbers paint a bleaker picture than most folks' perceptions of him are. Hopefully his intangibles overcome where his numbers are now - or better yet, hopefully his numbers improve too. One other interesting, but disheartening, factoid - KenPom has us as the 12th Luckiest team in the nation so far out of 351. I won't get lengthy as to how that's calculated but....winning after trailing late, opponents missing key players vs us, and catching teams on bad shooting nights are part of that equation. Only 12th I would have guess one or two...We have been very lucky!!!!!
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Post by 00hmh on Feb 15, 2018 21:41:32 GMT -6
cbc, you contrast numbers with perceptions. Might be reading the numbers better than you are judging the perceptions. We've known all along what the guy doesn't do.
This forum is very good seeing the negatives...
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Post by reevo on Feb 15, 2018 21:47:43 GMT -6
I love the kid. He has grit, toughness and I don’t mind a little colorful language from your leader from time to time. As a coach, he drives me insane by his sometimes poor decision making but I would not trade him for any guard in the conference. You give me 5 guys who has Persons mentality, I will give you a NCAA tournament team. He is a keeper.
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Post by rgmillikan on Feb 16, 2018 4:21:07 GMT -6
I would agree with those who say he's a player you hate if you're on the other side but is an asset if he's yours. At times like EMU game he's way too erratic but I'm okay with taking some of bad with the good. I think him and Moses will be missed after 2018-19.
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