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Buffalo
Dec 19, 2018 21:14:31 GMT -6
Post by sag on Dec 19, 2018 21:14:31 GMT -6
Agree about Toledo, but if Buffalo won out and lost in championship game, there would be two teams from the MAC. Probably won't happen like that though.
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Buffalo
Dec 19, 2018 22:37:43 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by cbcjanney on Dec 19, 2018 22:37:43 GMT -6
Toledo does play Buffalo twice whereas BSU only plays Buffalo once (a road game). In one view, it gives UT an extra chance, a home game at that, for a big win. In another view, BSU gets a slight standings edge if UT loses both to BU.
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Buffalo
Dec 19, 2018 23:29:51 GMT -6
Post by chirpchirpcards on Dec 19, 2018 23:29:51 GMT -6
I feel like Buffalo can have 3 losses MAX and still be considered for an at-large bid.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 7:34:14 GMT -6
Post by universityjim on Dec 20, 2018 7:34:14 GMT -6
Buffalo will get in regardless whether they win the tournament or not Some of you guys don't seem to realize how difficult it is to get an at large bid. Here are teams last year that DIDN'T get in: 19 Penn St 34 Baylor 35 notre dame 38 Louisville 39 Maryland and in 2017: 29 TCU 44 Indiana 45 Clemson 47 Utah 49 ill st Notice that some of these teams are very well connected power conference teams even. If Buffalo loses even a couple MAC games, they can probably forget about an at large. BSU and Toledo are out of at large contention right now...even if they win out the regular season. Agreed. Buffalo's schedule isn't tough enough to get an at large bid. Right now their SOS is sitting at 97. The MAC season will drag it way down. Ours is 37. Had we won all our games we still would have been very questionable.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 9:51:46 GMT -6
Post by 00hmh on Dec 20, 2018 9:51:46 GMT -6
Some of you guys don't seem to realize how difficult it is to get an at large bid. Agreed. Buffalo's schedule isn't tough enough to get an at large bid. Right now their SOS is sitting at 97. The MAC season will drag it way down. Ours is 37. Had we won all our games we still would have been very questionable. Not that far down, but down, and down compared to every big boy conference.
If they keep winning and win by large margin, and lose only a very few games to tough MAC teams in close games, they can get an at large.
Top 30-40 ranking should get in at large most of the time.
Another interesting question is whether the MAC can get NIT bids for a team just inside the top 100. That seems slim and appears to be where we will stand. Maybe one other attractive post season opportunity if we miss NIT, NCAA. Other than that it is like getting bowl bid because you have 6 wins, a dubious honor.
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Post by cbcjanney on Dec 20, 2018 11:02:56 GMT -6
Let's not get carried away... Buffalo is a lock to get in at-large with a 25-6 or better record heading into the MAC tourney under the newer criteria. They already have 2 top-50 road wins which will be more than other at-large candidates will have, and their schedule strength won't finish that bad - they'll only play two opponents worse than #210. (For reference, TSIB, Texas Tech, & St.John's all have six games already vs opponents worse than #240). Right now the teams (KenPom) ranked #21-60 have an average of 2.5 losses apiece which is not that much different than BU's loss total. However once the season ends, those same teams will likely have an average of around 11.5 losses (as was last yr's KenPom) which should be vastly different than BU's loss total. Yes the power5 teams' schedule strength will improve but inversely their record will get considerably worse.
The five '18 teams listed above and most of the '17 teams listed above didn't get in at-large because they had 13+ losses (some had 15 pre-tourney) and finished in the lower half of their conferences. Not that I expect it to matter for Buffalo since I don't see them having 6 losses pre-MAC tourney, but they were tied with Div II LeMoyne at the half, so they're human.
One kind of interesting thing I noticed on KenPom - he breaks down the game in terms of score by quarter. In only one game so far has Buffalo outscored it's opponents in all 4 quarters. Four times they've been outscored in 2 of 4 qtrs. Whether the Bulls have lapses, rotation dropoff, or whatever, they haven't dominated from start to finish (they've won 30 of 44 qtrs)... BSU's record by quarter is very similar at 27 of 44 vs a more difficult schedule.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 11:10:48 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by rmcalhoun on Dec 20, 2018 11:10:48 GMT -6
calling any group of 5 team a lock is a risky statement with the committee
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 11:20:45 GMT -6
Post by thebsukid on Dec 20, 2018 11:20:45 GMT -6
cbcjanney...some interesting facts my friend....I agree with most on the board that Buffalo is the clear MAC favorite....and I also believe they will likely win over BSU on their court, but thats where I like our chances...if we get into a MAC Final with Buffalo I like that we will have the revenge factor and be an underdog....don't count us out.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 11:28:21 GMT -6
Post by sweep on Dec 20, 2018 11:28:21 GMT -6
.. Buffalo is a lock to get in at-large with a 25-6 NO............It depends on whom the losses are to. Their numbers currently look great in relation to other teams because those teams haven't played the best part of their schedules yet. Valpo won 26 games and had an RPI of 31 in 15-16 and didn't make the tourney because of a home loss to Ball State.
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Post by cbcjanney on Dec 20, 2018 11:58:50 GMT -6
.. Buffalo is a lock to get in at-large with a 25-6 NO............It depends on whom the losses are to. Their numbers currently look great in relation to other teams because those teams haven't played the best part of their schedules yet. Valpo won 26 games and had an RPI of 31 in 15-16 and didn't make the tourney because of a single home loss to Ball State. I get what you're saying but Valpo that year had 11 of their wins over teams #250 or worse, and zero top-50 opponents period, much less top-50 road wins. Buffalo like I said it appears they'll have only 2 games all season vs teams worse than #210-215 and they already have 2 top-50 road wins, plus one top-50 neutral-site win (USF for now), plus another top-50 game scheduled. So barring some late-season collapse due to like Massinburg/Perkins/Harris having season-ending injuries, IMO their resume even with some MAC losses projects much better than that Valpo team and better enough vs the at-large pool. People compare them to us the Maui year, but we ended up with 7 MAC losses on top of still 4 non-conference losses that year despite beating Kansas and UCLA early. We somehow managed 8 double-digit losses and only tied for 2nd in the MAC despite all that talent.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 12:09:19 GMT -6
Post by sweep on Dec 20, 2018 12:09:19 GMT -6
NO............It depends on whom the losses are to. Their numbers currently look great in relation to other teams because those teams haven't played the best part of their schedules yet. Valpo won 26 games and had an RPI of 31 in 15-16 and didn't make the tourney because of a single home loss to Ball State. I get what you're saying but Valpo that year had 11 of their wins over teams #250 or worse, and zero top-50 opponents period, much less top-50 road wins. Buffalo like I said it appears they'll have only 2 games all season vs teams worse than #210-215 and they already have 2 top-50 road wins, plus one top-50 neutral-site win (USF for now), plus another top-50 game scheduled. So barring some late-season collapse due to like Massinburg/Perkins/Harris having season-ending injuries, IMO their resume even with some MAC losses projects much better than that Valpo team and better enough vs the at-large pool. People compare them to us the Maui year, but we ended up with 7 MAC losses on top of still 4 non-conference losses that year despite beating Kansas and UCLA early. We somehow managed 8 double-digit losses and only tied for 2nd in the MAC despite all that talent. You need to remember those numbers (RPI) are going to change a great deal between now and season's end. Power rankings for mid majors are going to take a big hit over the next 6 weeks, also some of Buffalo's Top 50 wins likely won't be Top 50 at seasons's end. We'll have to see how it all shakes out but if Buffalo loses 5-6 conference games to teams outside the Top 100 they aren't going anywhere.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 12:20:23 GMT -6
Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2018 12:20:23 GMT -6
Buffalo vs. Ball State, MAC Tournament
I’m really not sure I’ve ever seen our Cardinals get really incentivized to face another team when that other team beat us in the regular season.
Heck, I don’t recall a Whitford team getting too jacked up to even play in the MAC tournament.
Just an uninformed observation. You can normally extrapolate out future performance based on accumulated data points.
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Buffalo
Dec 20, 2018 12:21:52 GMT -6
jam likes this
Post by williamtsherman on Dec 20, 2018 12:21:52 GMT -6
"People compare them to us the Maui year, but we ended up with 7 MAC losses on top of still 4 non-conference losses that year despite beating Kansas and UCLA early. We somehow managed 8 double-digit losses and only tied for 2nd in the MAC despite all that talent."
Somehow? Tim Buckley, that's how. Simultaneously he was going along as the administration emasculated our recruiting, thus buying himself an extra year or two for playing the eunuch.
The program could have never been ripped down from the level it was at in 2000 without the key contributions of Tim Buckley.
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Buffalo
Dec 21, 2018 20:57:49 GMT -6
Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2018 20:57:49 GMT -6
......meanwhile, Buffalo is continuing to impress me on national tv against Marquette.
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Buffalo
Dec 21, 2018 21:30:59 GMT -6
Post by chirpchirpcards on Dec 21, 2018 21:30:59 GMT -6
Buffalo's not winning this one. Down 14 now
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