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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 21, 2015 12:43:34 GMT -6
Earlier, and based only on last year's KenPom rankings, I speculated that 15 wins was not completely out of the question. Noting our weak OOC schedule, I thought 7 wins there and 8 more in the MAC could happen - although it would be a more or less best case scenario. Now that we have this year's KenPom rankings, let's take another look.
271 Bradley 286 eiu 229 eku 269 longwood 321 sc state 27 Valpo 283 iupui 309 new Orleans 93 pepperdine 151 ind st 293 ala a&m 346 chic st
MAC west 90 cmu 118 wmu 122 tol 150 emu 177 niu 184 bsu
east 54 akr 126 kent 169 Miami 171 buff 217 ohio 230 bg
The first thing that strikes me is the ebb and flow of MAC programs. The east is no longer dominant over the west. Buffalo and OU, who have been strong of late, are now weak. Several of the east teams, which had fallen so ridiculously far, are now decent or better. The exception, of course, is a certain school called Ball State University. We just keep on sucking, and it pisses me off to no end. With the results we've had around here the last 14 years, heads should have been rolling out of here thick and fast. Patience isn't working. I think we should try fury instead.
Back to the schedule. It's a damn weak OOC schedule...not that it is inappropriate for us, but it is bad. We've played 3 bad teams already, and have only 1 win to show for it. But we play even worse teams coming up, starting today. We can still get 7 OOC wins without beating anyone over 250. I tend to think we will blow at least one of these games, but 7 OOC wins is still possible.
Can we then go 8-10 in the MAC? Hmmm. Seems doubtful at the level we've played at so far. 6 or 7 wins seems more likely to me.
I'm thinking 13 wins. I wouldn't be shocked to see the team pull it together for 15....the schedule makes that possible. Neither would I be shocked at another collapse like last year.
Notice I don't count IU Kokomo (We'll get there fast and then we'll take it slow. Thaaaaat's where we want to go) That game's just a glorified scrimmage against a bunch of practice squad level players. If you count that as an official win...you're pathetic.
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 14:41:32 GMT -6
IU Kokomo isn't much of a win, but, I'd be inclined to count it for "the bet" as I would count a MAC tournament game which we would have some chance of winning (worse case probably 25%). I get your point about not being to go just by form. But. Even though we are likely enough to lose a game we are favorites in, we will play some MAC games where we are underdogs but will have a good chance to win. I am about as sure we'll win one or more like that along the way, as well as lose one or more we should win. The site linked below projects results by running a simulation and takes the likely deviations into their projections. They may count IU Kokomo, they get to 15 wins. That exact result is about a 10% probability. There is a about a 30% chance we do 1-3 games better than 15 and almost the same odds we do 1-3 wins worse, and the tail of the distribution in each direction 30%. simulation resultsI give Kenpom slightly more credit than the other ratings since he seems to examine personnel changes before an initial rating, but all the ratings are very uncertain now. Sagarin is still weighting last season and recent past seasons which under rates us. Others may start with similar weight to the past. In a week or two the initial weighting will not be so significant and more accurate. 15 wins is a pretty good guess right now.
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Post by cardfan on Nov 21, 2015 14:53:51 GMT -6
You guys are trying too hard. ;-)
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 21, 2015 15:09:30 GMT -6
Hoping it will rub off on the team, Herman.
I just now realized we play OU and Miami twice each. When did that sort of system start? I missed that. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 15:15:40 GMT -6
The first thing that strikes me is the ebb and flow of MAC programs. The east is no longer dominant over the west. Buffalo and OU, who have been strong of late, are now weak. Several of the east teams, which had fallen so ridiculously far, are now decent or better. The exception, of course, is a certain school called Ball State University. We just keep on sucking, and it pisses me off to no end. With the results we've had around here the last 14 years, heads should have been rolling out of here thick and fast. The past MAC results do see some ebb and flow, at least compared to recent results. It's a bit early to trust the Kenpom or any rating system, but I think the overall conclusion would be the MAC may be a little down this year, and those rank order numbers mask something else. I think the MAC is more even top to bottom this year than recently. Look at Sagarin which is known to be inaccurate at this point since it weights by the recent past seasons at this time of year. Power rating point differencesThe top two teams are perhaps 9-12 ppg better than the bottom 3 teams. 5-7 points better than the middle. But take out the top 2 teams and the differences between the rest of teams will not so great, about 5 points. In that group of the teams the difference is therefor pretty small. I'll be interested to see what it is in a week or so, when the teams are connected. My guess is we will be even or slight favorites in a enough home games and may even, certainly within a few points in more road games than last year or the year before. This adds up to some wins, being close in lots of games means the chances to win 8 conference games out of 18 is not at all an astronomical long shot. The pessimist can worry about a collapse, but the optimist can still be optimistic at this point. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 15:22:38 GMT -6
With the results we've had around here the last 14 years, heads should have been rolling out of here thick and fast. The coach most responsible for real malpractice in the last 14 years was fired of course. Firing Buckley would not have done much good if we were going to hire a bargain basement coach. In fact the conclusion I come to is not that we need to pull the trigger sooner, in general, but that we should hire better. That takes $$$$. We are getting pretty much what we pay for. Firing any coach at any pay and then paying him for not coaching, especially a higher salaried coach is another money problem. The issue with our last coach was that in part. The budget at the need for a football buyout and more money for that sport. The extension was also based on optimism about the Jared/Randy team, not just patience, I think. Bad judgment or bad karma or whatever, both led to the decision. Early firing, say 3 years, in that case just wasn't possible, either. But the key to better coaching and paying more is whether we can afford to pay more, and can attract enough revenue with winning to do it. This coach is making decent money and we have not at this point been overly patient. If paying him more works out, maybe we can double down on the next coach. (either he fails or succeeds, either way, we are likely hunting soon enough.) Finding the more money we need is a little easier job in basketball than football, and a lot more likely to pay for itself, but General, your twin goals of frugal budget and high degree of success in sports are not easy to accomplish. Firing with fury will not work unless we hire well. Firing with too much fury and not enough money will not work at all. |
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Post by cardfan on Nov 21, 2015 15:51:40 GMT -6
We aren't stopping Longwood, soooo.....
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Post by ruffledfeathers on Nov 21, 2015 15:58:38 GMT -6
It's difficult to stop teams when you foul all the time. Calhoun, House and Moses with three fouls before the 10 minute mark in the first half. As I type Wells picks up his second.
Go Cards !
RF
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Post by TakeMeBackto2008 on Nov 21, 2015 16:08:55 GMT -6
Really getting sick of Jeremiah Davis.
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Post by ruffledfeathers on Nov 21, 2015 16:20:17 GMT -6
Cards take 32-31 lead into the locker room at the half. Not bad considering the different line ups with the foul trouble. Turnovers are still a problem.
Go Cards!
RF
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 21, 2015 16:30:05 GMT -6
is there something better than espn's game tracker on line?
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Post by dmbdan41 on Nov 21, 2015 16:55:32 GMT -6
is there something better than espn's game tracker on line? Not that I've found, and ESPN's game tracker is about 2 minutes ahead of the WLBC online broadcast. There are 3 longwood players w/ 4 fouls |
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Post by dmbdan41 on Nov 21, 2015 16:57:31 GMT -6
And now a 7-0 run by the 'Woodies to bring them w/in 3. What are the Cardinals doing? They still have another 3-4 minutes before it's time for their late game collapse.
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Post by TakeMeBackto2008 on Nov 21, 2015 16:58:05 GMT -6
Another Jeremiah Davis turnover leads to a basket.
Another Jeremiah Davis missed 3 leads to a basket.
Get this bum out of the game, please.
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 21, 2015 16:58:09 GMT -6
Well, for what it's worth, we have very balanced scoring.
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