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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 18:30:12 GMT -6
Not much to get excited about but A win is Win.. 13 more to go Kid Should go to the wire, maybe depend on the MAC tourney. I can't stand the suspense! |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2015 18:30:07 GMT -6
"Our season hinges on whether we learn to win close games"
Yeah, that matches about 100 other sort of crappy teams.
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Post by BSU Card Fan in AZ on Nov 21, 2015 20:01:55 GMT -6
That's the most positive statement from halftime I have seen. Lol.
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 21, 2015 20:12:50 GMT -6
Generally speaking, yes, but in this case it was still a one possession game with a couple minutes left. And it's true that the Kenpom rankings (and all the others) will change and become more accurate as time goes on, but my feeling is that our 4 opponents are correctly ranked as all being in the 200's. And we are 2-2 against them. So, based on the sample size we have, I personally believe we are in the 200's ourselves. On the better end probably, but in the 200's. So, unless Kenpom is overrating the MAC, we are not in the middle, we are toward the bottom.
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Post by rusty on Nov 21, 2015 20:32:35 GMT -6
Wow 4 games in the season and so many naysayers? Calm down 2-2 could easily be 4-0. Give them 10 or more games then judge how ever you want. Be a fan on the fan board.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Nov 21, 2015 20:47:08 GMT -6
We are fans or else we would not waste our time here. Its not just the 2-2 start this year most of our pessimism comes from years of watching the same thing. So far this year looks just like the last 10-12 years
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Post by cardfan on Nov 21, 2015 20:52:39 GMT -6
It's about how we are playing. Looks the same as last year. And we know how last year turned out.
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 21:00:18 GMT -6
Generally speaking, yes, but in this case it was still a one possession game with a couple minutes left. And it's true that the Kenpom rankings (and all the others) will change and become more accurate as time goes on, but my feeling is that our 4 opponents are correctly ranked as all being in the 200's. And we are 2-2 against them. So, based on the sample size we have, I personally believe we are in the 200's ourselves. On the better end probably, but in the 200's. So, unless Kenpom is overrating the MAC, we are not in the middle, we are toward the bottom.
KenPom's current ratings(as of games played 11-21) show not much separation in the teams top to bottom in terms of performance. 2 teams in the top 100, 3 more in the range 125-150. Those 3 would be essentially even, a point or two apart in power rating to win on a neutral court. Next are 5 teams. These teams are within a 3 point basket of each other. He has 5 teams in the top 150. BSU actually heads the list in the next 5 in the list in the range 150 to 200. BG is apparently a bit lower still. We're dead in the middle at the moment. Two things, first it's way too early to say much at all. and second, relative ordinal rank doesn't mean all that much, especially in the range 100-200. Home court would make favorites even. I don't know how good that gut is, and apart from gut feeling, I have no idea how bad these 4 teams we beat are. Two of our losses are on the road which is also hard to measure in rankings or in point spread. See my post above referring to Sagarin. Or look at last year to see how close teams usually are between 150 and 200. We will see a ton of games where either team having a good game or hitting the 3 will mean they win. I am not up to predicting where anybody is, but it looks like it will be a real dog fight. I'm glad if are at least in the fight this year, which would be a big improvement over last. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 21:01:33 GMT -6
It's about how we are playing. Looks the same as last year. And we know how last year turned out. I disagree in comparing the teams this year and last. We are better. The issue is how much. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 21:07:32 GMT -6
"Our season hinges on whether we learn to win close games" Yeah, that matches about 100 other sort of crappy teams. It actually matches nearly every team in terms of where they compare to the teams close to them. The top 30, the next 30, and so on, are very very close. But each group is more tightly packed the closer the group is to the middle. That's how a normal distribution works. Basketball parity exists and now dictates teams are pretty tightly packed together. The MAC is very close to the middle. We are in a group which will likely end up in the middle of the MAC. We need to show we can hold on and win some of those which we failed at frequently last year. We were however a weaker team then. |
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Post by cardfan on Nov 21, 2015 21:10:38 GMT -6
It's about how we are playing. Looks the same as last year. And we know how last year turned out. I disagree in comparing the teams this year and last. We are better. The issue is how much. That's the point. We don't look better, or at least not enough better. We can all see with our own eyes. Spinning it won't work. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 21:22:25 GMT -6
I disagree in comparing the teams this year and last. We are better. The issue is how much. That's the point. We don't look better, or at least not enough better. We can all see with our own eyes. Spinning it won't work. We do look better. My eyes don't see Rocco starting at guard or at center. My eyes see some players not playing as well as last year, but have seen them play well so I expect that to happen. My eyes also see several good players who weren't here, and a couple who are improved. I am not missing Turner, missing Kamakaze, but other teams lost more than we did. I said above the issue is how much improved. It is an open question on that. I am not spinning anything, just reporting some numbers. And I am quite clear that the numbers are now not very reliable, for sure. I'll trust my eyes up to a point, more than my gut. The General's gut is overwhelming the numbers, but eventually the numbers will rule. I'll wait on more data. He and I think the numbers have information value and they are worth discussing a little. Besides our eyes (and gut) aren't exactly guaranteed to be clear this early either...very hard to tell how strong our opponents are, and we have not seen our opponents on the rest of the schedule at all. |
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Post by cardfan on Nov 21, 2015 21:36:43 GMT -6
I do expect us to improve over time but we should be further along than we appear to be, especially considering the increased talent, the extra time as a team in the Bahamas, an additional year under the returnees belts, etc. The defense hasn't been good and we foul way too much. We have a proclivity to blow leads. So, yeah we might be better, but at the moment it doesn't appear we are enough better. Not saying we can't make some leaps by MAC time.
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 21, 2015 21:41:14 GMT -6
It's a good question whether we will ultimately play better when we get a few open shots sooner in the clock. Weber, Tyler and Sellers all can benefit, and even Davis and Smith can score on the break going to the basket.
Our AdjT (tempo) on KenPom, and our eyes and gut, all say we are failing to get that done!
Several things partially explain that. In Peoria we were a little short handed and teams have slowed us with a press. Good shooting by EKU probably hurt us making it hard to run, too, except at the beginning when we did pretty well!
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Post by cardfan on Nov 21, 2015 21:53:03 GMT -6
We've got to turn up the defensive pressure. Fouling is problematic with that though. I like big Nate out there. Imo he should start and get more minutes. We have to do something to bother opposing offense more. Definitely need more chances to get out in the open court.
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