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Post by bsutrack on Sept 12, 2020 14:32:37 GMT -6
Notice your source and graph does not compare to Sweden's neighboring countries which are much more similar in demographics, and some factors suggest all the Scandavian countries have done better overall. What your graph does show is that in mid August, other countries outside that region had started to see the result of relaxing standards earlier in August. It is also true even next door to Sweden. Less dramatic maybe. Okay, let's compare Sweden to their neighbors Denmark and Norway.  Last week, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control confirmed Sweden’s drop in infection rate, with only 12 cases per million, compared to 18 in neighboring Denmark and 14 in nearby Norway. So today Sweden is doing better than Denmark and Norway without having done the economy killing lockdowns done in those 2 countries. Sweden's economy did suffer in that many of their factories had to close because they relied on supply chains in other European countries that did lockdown. |
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Post by 00hmh on Sept 12, 2020 17:42:47 GMT -6
Plenty of factors explain the differences without this herd immunity theory.
The Swedish officials are not concluding that is the explanation.
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Post by bsutrack on Sept 12, 2020 18:19:12 GMT -6
And the factors that explain Pakistan's decrease? The decrease in New York and New Jersey once >20% of their population was infected added to the 50% who already had T-cell immunity to being exposed to other Coronoviruses? The decreases in infections in Arizona, Florida, and now Texas once they reached the same. The evidence continues to mount but you stay in denial (it's not just a river in Egypt).
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Post by rmcalhoun on Sept 12, 2020 18:35:41 GMT -6
And the factors that explain Pakistan's decrease? The decrease in New York and New Jersey once >20% of their population was infected added to the 50% who already had T-cell immunity to being exposed to other Coronoviruses? The decreases in infections in Arizona, Florida, and now Texas once they reached the same. The evidence continues to mount but you stay in denial (it's not just a river in Egypt). Ive given up and following a lot of this banter but this makes sense |
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 12, 2020 18:38:45 GMT -6
2019 hot topic- recruiting Indiana all-stars
2020 hot topic- covid rate in Pakistan
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Post by rmcalhoun on Sept 12, 2020 18:48:37 GMT -6
2019 hot topic- recruiting Indiana all-stars 2020 hot topic- covid rate in Pakistan 2021 hot topic Granny Porn |
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 12, 2020 20:41:08 GMT -6
To me, it is looking like the BIG10 will look increasingly silly for cancelling their football season. It will become increasing obvious this was done for political reasons rather than health reasons. Since the media agrees with those political reasons, they will be hyping whatever they can to make that decision look better, but there is only so much effectiveness to their spinning.
I think my post made a big impression on the Big 10 and they may be rethinking. |
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Post by villagepub on Sept 12, 2020 23:53:59 GMT -6
2019 hot topic- recruiting Indiana all-stars 2020 hot topic- covid rate in Pakistan 2021 hot topic Granny Porn Don't you judge! Pulling out dentures reduces one of those obstacles we all hate. And I speak for both men and women. |
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Post by 00hmh on Sept 13, 2020 9:55:49 GMT -6
And the factors that explain Pakistan's decrease? The decrease in New York and New Jersey once >20% of their population was infected added to the 50% who already had T-cell immunity to being exposed to other Coronoviruses? The decreases in infections in Arizona, Florida, and now Texas once they reached the same. The evidence continues to mount but you stay in denial (it's not just a river in Egypt). I certainly hope you are right that 50% of us are immune to start. There isn't much actual evidence for that however.
I've seen some optimistic speculation and hypothesis on threshold, but you seem to assume they are proven.
If this existing immunity hypothesis you are assuming is proven to be correct, we really did blow it by not acting sooner on lock down and not observing the recommended protocol for reopening. A relatively short early lock down and observing masking would put us where Europe is now, with a vaccine almost ready. With vaccine coming on line in January that would probably mean we would have avoided at least a couple of hundred thousand deaths by that time. Models predict we will hit 300-400 thousand.
In any case, as it is, we have no real choice to try an experiment with threshold. If we are wrong, it is a disaster with hundreds of thousands more lost. If it was right we still lose a couple hundred thousand more to get to 20% nation wide, and don't really need to since vaccine should provide 50% immunity.
I would certainly not rely as much as you do on the handful of cases you cite, none are clear cut. Especially true in Pakistan, where actually there has been lock down in effect in congested areas, and that's easier there. Plus their population average age is low 20's with likely many more asymptomatic cases and they have very little actual testing cases on infection, all assuming you trust their government. India right next door in regions with similar population is not doing as well.
Compare that to Europe or the US with much higher average age where the disease would be more apparent.
That adds up to several good reasons we can't rely on the same public health strategy. Just as our demographics are so different than the Scandinavian countries. We have many differences with this region in demographic characteristics like multi-generational families and existence of comorbidiities in the population.
In Europe the curve is almost exactly what the epidemiologists predicted was possible with good public health practice, including a second peak which they may be starting to see. Those predictions include an increase in the Fall.
As to our own states, because we never really lowered the curve here to a level where we should have reopened, we are probably still in the first wave having not taken good public health response.
We won't know definitively about any of this for a while but to me much more likely the decline is consistent with the leading scientists' predictions, than that anybody has hit threshold, or that we should adopt that theory.
Instead.
Wear a mask, stay away from large gatherings, and even small crowded indoor venues. Wash your hands when you have touched door knobs and exposed surfaces touched by lots of others.
Most important of these is probably to protect others with the mask, and it may also limit the viral load you experience from exposure and make it more likely you have a mild case.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Sept 13, 2020 11:51:25 GMT -6
I have a quick story and I do not know if it has a point but it seems relevant. A guy who I coach with has a son who tested positive he is a freshman at BSU. He tested positive on a Monday. We and several other families had been with and around him all day and evening sat. My family hung out again on Sunday. Monday we get the call that he had went to get rapid tested and was positive. He being young and stupid did not tell anyone or did not have symptoms till mon. His my mom noticed a little cough runny nose etc. His family quarantined for 14 days during that time The dad mom younger sister and 2 brothers never had a symptom nor did my family or any other family that had been in direct contact with him the weekend prior to his testing.. So what gives have we all had it? Could some of us have gotten it and had not 1 symptom. Is it weakening or were all of us just lucky
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 13, 2020 12:05:06 GMT -6
I have a quick story and I do not know if it has a point but it seems relevant. A guy who I coach with has a son who tested positive he is a freshman at BSU. He tested positive on a Monday. We and several other families had been with and around him all day and evening sat. My family hung out again on Sunday. Monday we get the call that he had went to get rapid tested and was positive. He being young and stupid did not tell anyone or did not have symptoms till mon. His my mom noticed a little cough runny nose etc. His family quarantined for 14 days during that time The dad mom younger sister and 2 brothers never had a symptom nor did my family or any other family that had been in direct contact with him the weekend prior to his testing.. So what gives have we all had it? Could some of us have gotten it and had not 1 symptom. Is it weakening or were all of us just lucky How much and what kind of contact did you have with him? Indoors or outdoors? How close to him were you ? For how long? Was he talking a lot? In a normal voice or loudly? When is it thought that he contracted the virus? |
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Post by rmcalhoun on Sept 13, 2020 12:34:48 GMT -6
Both inside and outside just normal casual contact. We had several conversations through out the day and evening.. He was around everyone from 4 till midnight Sat. Around my family for another 4 hour Sunday. He was tested and found positive on monday so you would think he had to have something going on Sat and or sunday if not before. I Think I td you guys I had the antibody test a couple months ago and at that time I was told I had likely had it already. I had been sick way back in late Feb early march
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Post by 00hmh on Sept 14, 2020 9:09:48 GMT -6
And the factors that explain Pakistan's decrease? The decrease in New York and New Jersey once >20% of their population was infected added to the 50% who already had T-cell immunity to being exposed to other Coronoviruses? The decreases in infections in Arizona, Florida, and now Texas once they reached the same. I'd be more convinced of some possible 50% immunity theory being a good barrier to transmission, if we didn't see that the older you are the more likely you are sick. Pakistan has very young population, for example. Presumably the older population has been exposed more to other virus infection and a greater number have acquired immunity of some kind.
It would seem at first glance that for the USA where we are older you'd expect even more widespread immunity to start with, and even if partial immunity it would reduce the severity of the disease. Of course the group we see with low grade symptoms are instead actually the young with less exposure previously to other viral infection. Those much more severe, the older.
Assuming that is the entire explanation, it has implications for public health policy. It means past immunity, and also vaccines, don't help in combating the disease directly in older populations as easily as in younger populations. We need different public health response than some countries. Primary need is probably even more use of masks by others when around older and vulnerable people until the infection rate is very low. We obviously are not close to that now. And our history with masks and distancing is not good.
Herd immunity strategy, even on all the assumptions made above, very likely would not work since it would have required we isolate all older and vulnerable people for a long period of time. In the USA this would be a really big problem where there are many multi-generational households, and poor high density populations in cities, and where older people who might live alone need to go out in public, and where older people living in facilities proved to be so hard to protect due to staff and visitors and medical treatment lead to exposure.
Note that in Sweden, or possibly in Pakistan how the demographics are so different.
All this would explain how Dade County or New Jersey or Texas or anywhere else here where we have a very high infection rate, even if under optimistic assumptions we might suppose we were at threshold.
The only conclusion we might want to make now is that we don't know enough to safely ignore public health practice. Yet we are doing that. With fairly bad results if we compare to any other country.
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Post by williamtsherman on Sept 14, 2020 10:05:37 GMT -6
Since the Covid situation in Pakistan is of such high interest here, I suggest we start a new thread devoted to that. It might eventually overtake the Bane thread in post count.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2020 11:59:26 GMT -6
Both inside and outside just normal casual contact. We had several conversations through out the day and evening.. He was around everyone from 4 till midnight Sat. Around my family for another 4 hour Sunday. He was tested and found positive on monday so you would think he had to have something going on Sat and or sunday if not before. I Think I td you guys I had the antibody test a couple months ago and at that time I was told I had likely had it already. I had been sick way back in late Feb early march Most viruses also have an incubation period where the virus begins multiplying but symptoms are not present which can typically last 1-2 weeks which could explain the lack of symptoms short term so I would keep an eye on that or get tested to be safe. If that happened to me I'd have to quarantine for 2 weeks or get a negative test result to return to normal activity. The best case scenario, which i hope is the case, is that the virus didn't successfully transmit from the student and is also entirely possible. |
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