|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 11, 2021 0:00:17 GMT -6
It appears we have a Blue State problem with the spread of Covid-19. 6 states including Ohio and Indiana, all this side of the Ohio River, all cold weather states, account for 60% of new cases in the country. With 30%+ of the population. And below average vax rates. I just don't see your 60% of new cases in the USA in the 6 states of Ohio, Indiana, and 4 others. usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/The 7-day running average in the USA for December 9, 2021 is 113,657 cases. 60% would be 68,194 cases in your 6 states. The December 9th, 2021 7-day running averages for Ohio and Indiana were 7,530 and 4,701, respectively (12,231 combined). So what other 4 states are providing 55,963 cases to get to your 60%? The linked website has a pretty decent "heat map" color-coded to cases per 100K. The hotter colored states appear to be clustered in the midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan). In addition, Kansas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey also are color-coded with higher rates of Covid-19 currently. I seem to recall Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. In addition, here is a study repudiating your often cited relationship between vaccinate rates and Covid-19 cases. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United StatesThe findings of the study: At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated. My take on this is relying just on vaccination rates fails to take into consideration the portion of the population having acquired natural immunity through contracting and surviving the virus. Countries and US states that had harsh lockdowns have limited portions of their citizens with natural immunity which judging from all the breakthrough cases is better than vaccine induced immunity. That's why Blue States are faring so badly right now. |
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 11, 2021 8:57:50 GMT -6
6 states including Ohio and Indiana, all this side of the Ohio River, all cold weather states, account for 60% of new cases in the country. With 30%+ of the population. And below average vax rates. I just don't see your 60% of new cases in the USA in the 6 states of Ohio, Indiana, and 4 others. In addition, here is a study repudiating your often cited relationship between vaccinate rates and Covid-19 cases. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United StatesThe findings of the study: My take on this is relying just on vaccination rates fails to take into consideration the portion of the population having acquired natural immunity through contracting and surviving the virus. Countries and US states that had harsh lockdowns...That's why Blue States are faring so badly right now. The study you cite covers mid July to early August. Very limited time period. And the conclusions would properly show mitigation efforts, weather, and other factors need to be considered. The world data is particularly suspect (as are some of the vaccines in use). I am in total agreement with the conclusion of the study we should do more than emphasize vaccination. Mask mandates and other mitigation on indoor gatherings in cold weather states are quicker and easier to deal with a surge. Treatment is important where vaccination fails to prevent, but there is no case that it is a cost effective strategy as an alternative to vaccination. Vax rates are very poor in most of the country and that is urgent.
In the notes to that study (labelled "recent") is the following article covering the delta surge:
Current evidence makes it clear this is not a "blue state" problem. Indiana is not a blue state, Ohio is not a blue state, Michigan and Pennsylvania are not blue states. The red states(including Florida have a poor record on serious illness and death) after vaccination has been available have had a very poor record.
The biggest factor in current surge timing is perhaps weather turning cold. Vax rate has remained constant. It is however a worse problem where it's cold and VAX rate is lower.
Cold weather states with poor VAX rates do account for more than 50% of new cases in the period I posted:
The article reveals that the vast majority of serious cases are the unvaccinated, and that 3 of 4 cases which lead to people being patients are unvaccinated, 87% of those in ICU and of those 88% on a ventilator are unvaccinated.
Your "take" assumes blue states have a bigger problem and that lockdowns which are mostly ancient history since vaccines became available are all that important. Lockdown 18 months ago seems to have made little difference in today's situation. Saying all the illness and suffering had a benefit now is a poor way to defend not treating Covid as real and a threat.
Your "take" ignores the current facts and ignores the influence of cold weather, population density and indoor transmission. Not to mention the vaccination rate which is poor in states like Michigan which you somehow count as a blue state...
In any case those who are previously infected are known to acquire even stronger immunity after vaccination. Get a booster. Get everyone vaccinated. The obvious and cheap strategy that will work better than accepting death and serious illness as "side effects" of your no Vax policy.
This is data from April to November.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 11, 2021 14:15:52 GMT -6
6 states including Ohio and Indiana, all this side of the Ohio River, all cold weather states, account for 60% of new cases in the country. With 30%+ of the population. And below average vax rates. You obviously couldn't find anything to support your claim of 6 states including Ohio and Indiana accounting for 60% of new cases of Covid-19 in the USA. While you continue to search for that, you might want to consider all the professional soccer players dying from vaccine related complications. stephenc.substack.com/p/5-fold-increase-in-sudden-cardiacIn the post-vaccination world the number of professional soccer players dying from Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) and Sudden Unexplained Death (SUD) has dramatically increased. From the article cited above: "According to Wikipedia, under "List of association footballers who died while playing", in 2001-2020 there was an average of 4.2 deaths per year attributed to SCD or SUD, the vast majority being SCD. In contrast, in 2021, according to our list, there were 21 cases of SCD/SUD among FIFA players. In other words, instead of 4 SCD/SUD deaths per year (according to Wikipedia data), or 5 cases per year (calculated according to the BMJ) during 2001-2020, 21 players have died so far this year." Although FIFA doesn't require Covid-19 vaccination, most FIFA players are vaccinated for Covid-19. There is no other factor to realistically explain the sudden spike in deaths. The American Heart Association recently released a report with the following conclusion: “ We conclude that the mRNA vaccinations dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.” www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712 |
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 11, 2021 16:32:40 GMT -6
This is laughable.
100 International soccer players die, and you basically assume it was vaccine? The vaccines used widely in the USA?
You reject controlled scientific studies indicating the level of risk is slight?
800,000 Americans die of Covid, you are arguing vaccines might be dangerous?
You reject an article I cite above with tables and graphs and source of data, yet trust an social media post on the assurances of a Twitter poster that it was careful?
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 11, 2021 23:43:26 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 12, 2021 10:26:29 GMT -6
This "study" with no examination of the actual cases for causal connection to Covid vaccine, or to which vaccine, is not just of questionable value for any purpose, it is just not really relevant to the issue of broader use of vaccines.
Suppose we do assume a small risk to young men which is recognized by professional public health sources, and assume the young men you are so concerned about could not have mitigated that risk by watching for signs of disease and treating any disease that they suffered, which is the medical opinion of most health professionals. How exactly does it contradict the broader study involving many millions of doses and the evidence for vaccine efficacy in the broad population?
ONE of the vaccines widely used has been suspect for young men. That risk has been identified and that vaccine used less often, but with professional researchers using actual case file data the risk is not yet quantified or confirmed. THIS study hardly invalidates the larger data set leading to the approval of vaccines for that age group? THIS suspect study you trust? The world's public health researchers you do not? Why? I am sure your conspiracy sites have articles about that...
Disregard of life would be to advocate natural immunity as a rational strategy of response, ignore the 800,000 Covid deaths the overwhelming majority of them not vaccinated individuals.
Disregard of life would be to circulate conspiracy theory and junk science results.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 12, 2021 14:22:53 GMT -6
If you are in a high risk group, and/or have underlying conditions taking the vaccine is the way to go. Probably still should consult with your doctor before, but still the risk-reward of taking the vaccine is worth it.
But we have to remember these are experimental vaccines that were rushed to production and distribution. There was no other choice but do so. However, there are certain demographic groups that the risk may not be worth it, especially if you already have acquired immunity through previously having the virus. This is why vaccine mandates are a bad idea being promoted by the Joe Biden Administration. It appears the US Court System is going to block them, but they could still go through.
How many of these soccer players would still be alive today if not for taking the vaccine? We will never know. Just like we will never know how many of the 787,000 Americans who died with Covid-19 (not of Covid-19) would still be alive today if not for Covid-19. If you recall from my previously posts, when Italy limited their death count to only those that died of Covid-19 instead of with Covid-19, the tally was reduced by approximately 95%. I think you would agree if the CDC started counting people who died with the vaccine instead of because of the vaccine, it would give the wrong impression.
In regard to breakthrough cases, I find it interesting that the Chicago Bulls now have 7 of their normal 13 man roster in Covid-19 quarantine. This is after their starting Center had already recovered from getting Covid-19 3 weeks ago. At the start of the season they were a fully vaccinated team, yet 8 of their 13 core players have now contracted Covid-19. They currently filling out their roster with call-ups from their G-league team and guys signed off the street.
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 12, 2021 16:04:47 GMT -6
These "experimental" vaccines have infinitely more very good data supporting their use than the host of fringe treatment options you have touted. Compared to many vaccines there is greater evidence of risk and efficacy.
They are extraordinarily good in that respect compared to most mandated vaccines.
The groups with any difficulties are rare, mostly the negatives are very small, and can be mitigated or treated, and where that is not true have been identified and can be exempted from a mandate.
If we had reliable measures of existing immunity, whether from infection or vaccination we could avoid even this slight risk. But we do not.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 12, 2021 23:29:17 GMT -6
On Sunday, Zach LaVine and Troy Brown of the Chicago Bulls became the 8th and 9th players on the their team to enter the NBA's health and safety protocols. They join the following players already in Covid-19 quarantine:
1) Coby White
2) Javonte Green
3) DeMar DeRozen
4) Matt Thomas
5) Derrick Jones Jr.
6) Ayo Dosunmu
7) Stanley Johnson
Since the team is 100% vaccinated against Covid-19 this must mean all have tested positive for Covid-19. Exposure to someone with Covid-19 only gets you into the NBA's health and safety protocols if you aren't vaccinated.
All 9 players must stay in the protocols for 10 days or until they return two negative PCR tests separated by 24 hours. White and Green will have passed the 10 day mark when the Bulls play their next game on Tuesday, December 14h. The starting center for the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic, spent 10 days in the NBA protocols at the end of November and returned to action about 10 days ago.
Maybe the Chicago Bulls got a bad batch of the Covid-19 vaccine, because having 10 of your 13 man roster come down with Covid-19 in under 30 days certainly is a bad look.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 12, 2021 23:42:09 GMT -6
These "experimental" vaccines have infinitely more very good data supporting their use than the host of fringe treatment options you have touted. Those treatment options such as monoclonal antibodies, Remdesivir, and the anti-Covid pills developed by Mereck (Molnupiravir) and Pfizer (Paxlovid) are pretty damn good at reducing the severity of Covid-19. Judging from all the current breakthrough cases (refer to my latest update on the Chicago Bulls), that's about all the current vaccines for Covid-19 are worth. Now once you get Covid-19 and survive, you have real immunity against getting it again. |
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 13, 2021 6:12:33 GMT -6
These "experimental" vaccines have infinitely more very good data supporting their use than the host of fringe treatment options you have touted. Those treatment options such as monoclonal antibodies, Remdesivir, and the anti-Covid pills developed by Mereck (Molnupiravir) and Pfizer (Paxlovid) are pretty damn good at reducing the severity of Covid-19. Judging from all the current breakthrough cases (refer to my latest update on the Chicago Bulls), that's about all the current vaccines for Covid-19 are worth. Now once you get Covid-19 and survive, you have real immunity against getting it again. Sure they are good, but each shot costs about $1000. A more cost effective pandemic response is mitigation and vaccination.
They also don't always work, and often you aren't going know you need it until you are sick, so talk about "side effects" of the strategy.
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 13, 2021 8:46:16 GMT -6
On Sunday, Zach LaVine and Troy Brown of the Chicago Bulls became the 8th and 9th players on the their team to enter the NBA's health and safety protocols...Since the team is 100% vaccinated against Covid-19 this must mean all have tested positive for Covid-19. Exposure to someone with Covid-19 only gets you into the NBA's health and safety protocols if you aren't vaccinated...Maybe the Chicago Bulls got a bad batch of the Covid-19 vaccine, because having 10 of your 13 man roster come down with Covid-19 in under 30 days certainly is a bad look. Not likely a "bad batch" more likely possible some of the players are J&J where protection decreased rapidly with one dose, or even another vaccine and they haven't had a booster.
NBA players are young and healthy and the NBA has relaxed mitigation restrictions on their avoiding exposure in crowded indoor settings where spread is more likely. Not like last year's bubble...
They are apparently mild cases and by isolating them maybe they will avoid others being infected.
This is still delta I believe, and it shows we need to be wearing masks and social distancing more than we are.
If/when Omicron is more widespread I think we will really have a mess on out hands with people who are out mixing with others. What worked with previous variants is not working in Europe and England where they are ahead of us on the curve. Omicron is many times more transmissable.
The big threat for us now is still delta for those not vaccinated in terms of serious illness but if multiple times as many people are infected thaat produces a bigger chance of hospitals being hit with surge of serious infections. Even if serious cases are more rare the sheer number and fast spread of Omicron could be a bear in January and February.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 13, 2021 22:41:17 GMT -6
Those treatment options such as monoclonal antibodies, Remdesivir, and the anti-Covid pills developed by Mereck (Molnupiravir) and Pfizer (Paxlovid) are pretty damn good at reducing the severity of Covid-19. Judging from all the current breakthrough cases (refer to my latest update on the Chicago Bulls), that's about all the current vaccines for Covid-19 are worth. Now once you get Covid-19 and survive, you have real immunity against getting it again. Sure they are good, but each shot costs about $1000. A more cost effective pandemic response is mitigation and vaccination. On this one I'll agree with you. Big Pharma is making enough off this crisis. Another study supporting acquired immunity is better than vaccination. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1I wish our CDC would publish the numbers on how many of the some 100,000+ daily positive test results in the USA are breakthrough infections of previously vaccinated people vs. unvaccinated vs. reinfection of recovered Covid-19 patients. The above study indicates the latter happens more than I would have guessed. |
|
|
|
Post by bsutrack on Dec 13, 2021 23:07:18 GMT -6
On Sunday, Zach LaVine and Troy Brown of the Chicago Bulls became the 8th and 9th players on the their team to enter the NBA's health and safety protocols...Since the team is 100% vaccinated against Covid-19 this must mean all have tested positive for Covid-19. Exposure to someone with Covid-19 only gets you into the NBA's health and safety protocols if you aren't vaccinated...Maybe the Chicago Bulls got a bad batch of the Covid-19 vaccine, because having 10 of your 13 man roster come down with Covid-19 in under 30 days certainly is a bad look. Not likely a "bad batch" more likely possible some of the players are J&J where protection decreased rapidly with one dose, or even another vaccine and they haven't had a booster.
NBA players are young and healthy and the NBA has relaxed mitigation restrictions on their avoiding exposure in crowded indoor settings where spread is more likely. Not like last year's bubble...
They are apparently mild cases and by isolating them maybe they will avoid others being infected.
This is still delta I believe, and it shows we need to be wearing masks and social distancing more than we are.
If/when Omicron is more widespread I think we will really have a mess on out hands with people who are out mixing with others. What worked with previous variants is not working in Europe and England where they are ahead of us on the curve. Omicron is many times more transmissable.
The big threat for us now is still delta for those not vaccinated in terms of serious illness but if multiple times as many people are infected thaat produces a bigger chance of hospitals being hit with surge of serious infections. Even if serious cases are more rare the sheer number and fast spread of Omicron could be a bear in January and February. Another day another Bulls player testing positive. www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bulls/nba-lands-right-side-common-sense-bulls-postponementsAt least the NBA took pity on them and postponed their next 2 games. As a Bulls' fan, I really would like for them to make the playoffs this year. Some highlights from the article: "This always proved the Bulls’ frustration throughout this process. Since White first tested positive, the Bulls have been testing daily. When the positive cases began increasing, sometimes they’d test more than once a day. Coach Billy Donovan has said publicly that several players in the protocols are asymptomatic. Nikola Vučević added that many players have received booster shots on top of the Bulls’ fully vaccinated status. Who’s to say other teams aren’t using players with undetected cases that simply aren’t being caught because they’re not subjected to daily testing like the Bulls?" As for Omicron (also referred to as the Oh My God Variant ), everything coming out of South Africa indicates it's even less lethal. The OMG Variant may well be following the Spanish Flu of 1917-18 playbook of mutating into something pretty benign. I've only read of one person worldwide (in the UK) who has been confirmed as actually dying from the OMG Variant. |
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Dec 22, 2021 11:13:07 GMT -6
We need immigration to fill jobs nobody else wants and due to population demographics/
Rich guys need gardeners and nannies to take advantage of, ya know. Show some respect to a minority group that pulls it's weight. Those rich guys underappreciated. Almost as much as the gardeners... Plus:[br www.npr.org/2021/12/22/1063104262/immigrant-workers-us-economy-key-jobs |
|
