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Post by cardfan on Apr 20, 2024 9:11:54 GMT -6
Basically guys are now content to take money to sit vs take less or no money to play regularly. Generalization, yes, but with a lot of truth in it.
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Post by bsutrack on Apr 20, 2024 9:45:01 GMT -6
The pre-NIL model was for a good, but not great, high school player to go to your Power 5 school as a freshman, sit the bench for 2 years and play their junior and senior years. If you failed to crack the rotation by your junior year, you then transferred out to a mid-major school to play your last year or two.
The post-NIL model for that same player is to go to a mid-major, get playing time and exposure (but not necessarily major NIL), and then cash-in by using the portal to transfer to that Power 5 school for their last years of eligibility and get paid the major NIL the mid-majors will never have.
In the post-NIL world, the Power 5 school no longer wastes scholarships on projects. They rely on the mid-majors to develop talent and weed-out those that don't have it. They then "hire" those players via NIL for their junior and senior years along with a mix of blue-chip players directly from high school. Joey Hart will probably be just this type of player.
Successful mid-majors will be those that acknowledge and adjust to this post-NIL world. Those that don't realize the world has changed (as you apparently do not) will fail.
P.S. That last jab was directed at 00hmh, not Cardfan who jumped in between the cross-fire.
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Post by bsutrack on Apr 20, 2024 9:51:16 GMT -6
Basically guys are now content to take money to sit vs take less or no money to play regularly. Generalization, yes, but with a lot of truth in it. True for some, but as the guy in the Calhoun's video points out, they risk never getting the major NIL money. The smart ones will be willing to play the long game, go somewhere they can get playing time immediately (the BSU's of the world) and then cash-in by moving via the portal when they have proven themselves. The ones with balls will bet on themselves and not just sit on a Power 5 bench to pick-up a few dollars immediately. |
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Post by lmills72 on Apr 20, 2024 12:18:08 GMT -6
The pre-NIL model was for a good, but not great, high school player to go to your Power 5 school as a freshman, sit the bench for 2 years and play their junior and senior years. If you failed to crack the rotation by your junior year, you then transferred out to a mid-major school to play your last year or two. The post-NIL model for that same player is to go to a mid-major, get playing time and exposure (but not necessarily major NIL), and then cash-in by using the portal to transfer to that Power 5 school for their last years of eligibility and get paid the major NIL the mid-majors will never have. In the post-NIL world, the Power 5 school no longer wastes scholarships on projects. They rely on the mid-majors to develop talent and weed-out those that don't have it. They then "hire" those players via NIL for their junior and senior years along with a mix of blue-chip players directly from high school. Joey Hart will probably be just this type of player. Successful mid-majors will be those that acknowledge and adjust to this post-NIL world. Those that don't realize the world has changed (as you apparently do not) will fail. P.S. That last jab was directed at 00hmh, not Cardfan who jumped in between the cross-fire. In the post-NIL world there still will be plenty of players like Hart who jump at the Power 5 NIL and want to prove themselves "against the best" in front of the biggest crowd and most-watched TV cameras, before they realize they should have started at the mid-major level. And there will always be players like Sparks, who are proven at the mid-major level but not quite P5 material. They'll still try it there. Depending on the program, some will be able to ride it out there even if they're mostly bench players; some will bounce back, as Sparks did. Even in the post-NIL world with the Power 5s just recruiting "proven" players, most coaches are going to give significant PT to only about 8 players, so there will always be 5 players on those rosters who are basically bench warmers and there for the NIL. |
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 20, 2024 13:01:20 GMT -6
In the post-NIL world, the Power 5 school no longer wastes scholarships on projects. They rely on the mid-majors to develop talent and weed-out those that don't have it. They then "hire" those players via NIL for their junior and senior years along with a mix of blue-chip players directly from high school. Joey Hart will probably be just this type of player. Successful mid-majors will be those that acknowledge and adjust to this post-NIL world. Those that don't realize the world has changed (as you apparently do not) will fail. P.S. That last jab was directed at 00hmh, not Cardfan who jumped in between the cross-fire. We definitely won't see projects at the high major level.
The Joey Hart case doesn't fit your theory really well. He had to think he had a shot. We gave him that PT choice and he turned it down, took his chance early, now moves down to play more, will not get the NIL, but (probably) can move back up. I don't know if he'll ever hit the level of Ky or IU, even if a MAC standout, but I doubt he regrets taking a chance on it greatly.
Hart (and Sparks) both had courage and they were players who took a chance on themselves at their first opportunity. Glad we were good choices for both when it didn't work out for them. But having invested in both of them before had to be a big key.
There are going to be schools like Purdue and UConn and others who can not have a complete revolving door model and have success. There's a model like that for our level, too.
If you look at my posts on this subject going back two years or more, I have been well aware of the impact of NIL. Not liking it, but you can't ignore it. My posts in this thread are about consequences of not having NIL money for bidding on a new roster every year. We're going to value players we get who can't demand NIL and move on.
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Post by bsutrack on Apr 20, 2024 16:21:12 GMT -6
In the post-NIL world, the Power 5 school no longer wastes scholarships on projects. They rely on the mid-majors to develop talent and weed-out those that don't have it. They then "hire" those players via NIL for their junior and senior years along with a mix of blue-chip players directly from high school. Joey Hart will probably be just this type of player. Successful mid-majors will be those that acknowledge and adjust to this post-NIL world. Those that don't realize the world has changed (as you apparently do not) will fail. P.S. That last jab was directed at 00hmh, not Cardfan who jumped in between the cross-fire. We definitely won't see projects at the high major level.
The Joey Hart case doesn't fit your theory really well. He had to think he had a shot. We gave him that PT choice and he turned it down, took his chance early, now moves down to play more, will not get the NIL, but (probably) can move back up. I don't know if he'll ever hit the level of Ky or IU, even if a MAC standout, but I doubt he regrets taking a chance on it greatly.
Hart (and Sparks) both had courage and they were players who took a chance on themselves at their first opportunity. Glad we were good choices for both when it didn't work out for them. But having invested in both of them before had to be a big key.
There are going to be schools like Purdue and UConn and others who can not have a complete revolving door model and have success. There's a model like that for our level, too.
If you look at my posts on this subject going back two years or more, I have been well aware of the impact of NIL. Not liking it, but you can't ignore it. My posts in this thread are about consequences of not having NIL money for bidding on a new roster every year. We're going to value players we get who can't demand NIL and move on.
I think you need to go back and listen to the video link Calhoun posted again, because Joey Hart fits it well. The gentleman on the video talks about going to a place you can play right away. That not playing right away will have a lasting impact on how much NIL you will make over your college career. In other words, the college basketball player better be realistic about his abilities and where he stands. In the case of Hart, the previous Kentucky coach (Calipari) obviously sold him on playing from day #1. Did Calipari later realize the guards he already had on his roster, or added later were better? I doubt it. Hart only played in 7 games the entire season with an average of only 1.4 minutes per game. That's a grand total of 9 minutes of playing time for an entire season and I bet all 9 minutes were at the end of games in garbage time. Calipari clearly added Hart as an insurance policy he never needed and probably lied to the kid during the recruiting process. Now let's assume the modern college basketball player's main concern these days is how much NIL they can acquire over their college career. Hart most likely got some NIL for his first year at Kentucky, but doubt if Calipari gave much for a player he really didn't need. He probably isn't getting much from BSU for year #2. Now, Hart needs to rebuild his reputation with a good, if not great year, or two at BSU. After that he can get the big NIL money in either year #3, or just #4 of his college career. He would have been better off financially coming directly to BSU for 2023-24, having a great year, and then selling his remaining 3 years of eligibility. Having said that, maybe Calipari did Hart a favor by playing him so little in his one year at Kentucky that Hart can get his year back as a red-shirt. If that's the case, it's just like Hart came directly to BSU from high school, which again is the post-NIL model for success at the mid-major level I am advocating. After succeeding at BSU, Hart will sell his services to the highest NIL bidder for what remains of his college career. |
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Post by bsutrack on Apr 20, 2024 16:35:40 GMT -6
The pre-NIL model was for a good, but not great, high school player to go to your Power 5 school as a freshman, sit the bench for 2 years and play their junior and senior years. If you failed to crack the rotation by your junior year, you then transferred out to a mid-major school to play your last year or two. The post-NIL model for that same player is to go to a mid-major, get playing time and exposure (but not necessarily major NIL), and then cash-in by using the portal to transfer to that Power 5 school for their last years of eligibility and get paid the major NIL the mid-majors will never have. In the post-NIL world, the Power 5 school no longer wastes scholarships on projects. They rely on the mid-majors to develop talent and weed-out those that don't have it. They then "hire" those players via NIL for their junior and senior years along with a mix of blue-chip players directly from high school. Joey Hart will probably be just this type of player. Successful mid-majors will be those that acknowledge and adjust to this post-NIL world. Those that don't realize the world has changed (as you apparently do not) will fail. P.S. That last jab was directed at 00hmh, not Cardfan who jumped in between the cross-fire. In the post-NIL world there still will be plenty of players like Hart who jump at the Power 5 NIL and want to prove themselves "against the best" in front of the biggest crowd and most-watched TV cameras, before they realize they should have started at the mid-major level. And there will always be players like Sparks, who are proven at the mid-major level but not quite P5 material. They'll still try it there. Depending on the program, some will be able to ride it out there even if they're mostly bench players; some will bounce back, as Sparks did. Even in the post-NIL world with the Power 5s just recruiting "proven" players, most coaches are going to give significant PT to only about 8 players, so there will always be 5 players on those rosters who are basically bench warmers and there for the NIL. You're probably correct. An 18-year-old kid's ego often overrides reality. |
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 20, 2024 17:20:22 GMT -6
In the post-NIL world there still will be plenty of players like Hart who jump at the Power 5 NIL and want to prove themselves "against the best" in front of the biggest crowd and most-watched TV cameras, before they realize they should have started at the mid-major level. And there will always be players like Sparks, who are proven at the mid-major level but not quite P5 material. They'll still try it there. Depending on the program, some will be able to ride it out there even if they're mostly bench players; some will bounce back, as Sparks did. Even in the post-NIL world with the Power 5s just recruiting "proven" players, most coaches are going to give significant PT to only about 8 players, so there will always be 5 players on those rosters who are basically bench warmers and there for the NIL. You're probably correct. An 18-year-old kid's ego often overrides reality. track, you do realize Hart went to KY first for a year, not to a mid major...did not go somewhere he would max out PT. He found that he was not going to likely play there, he didn't leave to maximize NIL, but to play and move somewhere else.
You can say he is now on the path mid major, with good chance to later get to a major, but I doubt he regretted going Ky. He sort of got the best of both worlds.
The video posted obviously was speaking to players like Hart, many will go mid major first, but it isn't universal truth either. Hart got some good NIL didn't actually cost himself any eligibility and he shouldn't second guess himself much. This was an offer from frigging Ky. About any kid will take it.
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 20, 2024 17:27:23 GMT -6
Basically guys are now content to take money to sit vs take less or no money to play regularly. Generalization, yes, but with a lot of truth in it. True for some, but as the guy in the Calhoun's video points out, they risk never getting the major NIL money. The smart ones will be willing to play the long game, go somewhere they can get playing time immediately (the BSU's of the world) and then cash-in by moving via the portal when they have proven themselves. The ones with balls will bet on themselves and not just sit on a Power 5 bench to pick-up a few dollars immediately. Taking your chances to win a spot in practice takes courage. I doubt Hart when to Ky just for NIL, but rather for that chance to break in after a year or two. That would also maximize his NIL potential.
He can now take an NIL hit at BSU, and have a chance to go back to another major, but he's going to have a hard time matching the Ky level NIL. He is a basketball player, PT counts, which he will get whatever happens now. It's not just income maximization that drives him.
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Post by bsutrack on Apr 20, 2024 23:56:11 GMT -6
You're probably correct. An 18-year-old kid's ego often overrides reality. track, you do realize Hart went to KY first for a year, not to a mid major...did not go somewhere he would max out PT. He found that he was not going to likely play there, he didn't leave to maximize NIL, but to play and move somewhere else.
You can say he is now on the path mid major, with good chance to later get to a major, but I doubt he regretted going Ky. He sort of got the best of both worlds.
The video posted obviously was speaking to players like Hart, many will go mid major first, but it isn't universal truth either. Hart got some good NIL didn't actually cost himself any eligibility and he shouldn't second guess himself much. This was an offer from frigging Ky. About any kid will take it.
00hmh, there are two things I can consistently expect from you: 1) you will never admit you are wrong, and 2) you always seem to think you need to get in the last word. So, we are going to be at this for awhile. Do you realize Hart was first committed to the University of Central Florida (UCF) a member of the Big 12 and where Jaylin Sellers transferred to? Here's an article that adds some color to his switch to Kentucky. www.aseaofblue.com/2023/6/17/23756669/joey-hart-kentucky-basketball-recruiting-2023-uk-wildcats-highlightsSo initially he was going to a program maybe a bit higher in stature than Ball State and one that supposedly (based on the rumors posted on this message board) paid Sellers $50,000 to play there last season. From the article dated June 17th, 2023: "Several weeks ago, Joey Hart was set to join the UCF Knights this fall. After an impressive senior season and with teams searching for shooters, Hart began to receive interest from more prestigious programs, such as Indiana, Texas, and Kentucky. As interest in Hart grew, he realized his opportunities and decommitted from UCF to reopen his recruitment. Since then, Hart’s recruitment has been seen as a two-horse race between Kentucky and Indiana. After taking the time to visit and talk with both programs, Hart chose to be a Kentucky Wildcat, as announced on Saturday." So after having a excellent senior season, Hart became convinced he could do better than UCF. NIL probably wasn't a deciding factor. The amount UCF was giving him might have been very comparable to what Kentucky offered. Calipari probably didn't pay too much NIL to fill an open scholarship he had that late in the recruiting cycle and based on how little he then used Hart, a grand total of 9 minutes over 7 games, he didn't value him very highly. Hart is exactly the type of kid referred to in Calhoun's video. He went to a place he didn't get to play right away and got his ego and pocket hurt. Now we'll get to see what really motivates him. If after having a good to excellent season at BSU, will he upgrade like he upgraded himself from UCF? I'm a cynic in believing most if not all these college basketball players are motivated by how much NIL they can accumulate. I expect nothing less than that from Mr. Hart. |
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 21, 2024 2:39:14 GMT -6
He didn't spend any time at UCF did he?
Give the guy credit for believing in himself to take his chance there. No idea how much NIL was a factor, but he did get good NIL as well. perhaps twice as much as Sellers at UCF after 2 years here.
Might have been better at IU for PT, I suppose. That might have worked out.
If he shot too high, or picked the second best big school he'd ever want, he had a dream chance any player would take. I don't see much harm.
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Post by williamtsherman on Apr 21, 2024 6:40:28 GMT -6
I saw a quote from Hart saying something like he was hesitant to enter the portal because he disliked the recruiting process and wasn't keen on repeating it. No guarantee of anything, of course, but that could lead him to stay in some future off-season where a player who likes attention might go.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Apr 21, 2024 9:51:41 GMT -6
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Post by 00hmh on Apr 21, 2024 10:16:01 GMT -6
Read the fine print!
Better. Have representation.
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Post by lmills72 on Apr 21, 2024 12:27:33 GMT -6
I realize some kids are getting big money, but for most you gotta wonder how much they'll get once the agent takes his cut and the government takes its cut and who know how many other hands are dipping into that pie.
Maybe the best advice for a kid would be that you still want to go to a place where you can still get an education and play for a coach you like who can make you better.
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