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Post by cardfan on Dec 30, 2018 22:42:05 GMT -6
Weird combination of dominance and self destruction There really was a whole lot of both in this game wasn't there!? Played sloppy and undisciplined, yet dominated. Coulda put it away early but didn’t. But they overcame it all. And damn if they didn’t make the playoffs. |
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Dec 30, 2018 22:42:52 GMT -6
Since this IS the colts draft position thread, it should be mentioned that they just f----d their draft position I was just about to say that I'm finally on board with them not tanking the season for a better draft position. |
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Post by 00hmh on Dec 31, 2018 5:31:43 GMT -6
Since this IS the colts draft position thread, it should be mentioned that they just f----d their draft position And your early analysis about their prospects...and Andrew Luck. |
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Post by BSU Card Fan in AZ on Dec 31, 2018 7:35:15 GMT -6
I’ll take the playoffs anytime over just missing and getting the middle of the pack pick.
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Post by proctorp on Dec 31, 2018 10:39:36 GMT -6
Hey General, how did picking Nelson first round work out?
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 31, 2018 12:29:03 GMT -6
Didn't seem to make much difference. The course of the colts offense this season just seemed to reinforce what I already believed about the relative value of O linemen. The O line only got good once the tackle situation was straightened out.....as you would expect with tackle being much the more important, challenging and difficult to fill position. I sure would like to see what the effect of another threatening WR to pair with Hilton would be.
The colts have played as well as anyone the last part of the season. Problem is every game will be on the road. I see they are a 2.5 point dog against Houston. I usually have a lot of respect for point spreads because they represent people putting their money where their mouth is, as opposed to a lot of brainless media herd-thinking and bloviating. However, in this case, the Colts are the favorites in my mind....they have just been playing better than the Texans.
If we can look ahead, I think the Chiefs are ripe to upset because their defense is terrible. Going to Foxboro to face the Dark Lord would scare me a lot more.
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Post by thebsukid on Jan 1, 2019 11:15:52 GMT -6
I generally agree with the General although the overall offensive line including Nelson was superb the last 8 or 9 games and Luck had a very strong season!
Go Horse.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2019 12:09:11 GMT -6
The course of the colts offense this season just seemed to reinforce what I already believed about the relative value of O linemen. The O line only got good once the tackle situation was straightened out.....as you would expect with tackle being much the more important, challenging and difficult to fill position. I sure would like to see what the effect of another threatening WR to pair with Hilton would be. Without the Oline there would be much less threat to run. You seem to think the passing downs are the only ones that counted. Not only does the run give alternatives, not only does it let the Colts use clock and win games because they don't have to give up the ball, but the successful runs, or threat thereof, made those passing downs more productive. Opposing defense could not go after Luck as hard. They had to look at the run first on many downs.
Of course of lot of Luck's success was the new scheme where he was called on to get rid of the ball faster. But this meant the traditional role of a great LT holding off the onrushing linemen and LBs for just an extra second, that was much less significant issue.
I agree in part with you analysis. While getting starters at tackle established and back from injury obviously is a big factor compared to a makeshift lineup that changed every game. Still, Nelson was a huge part of that success. He was the most steady contribution to the stability and he made the LT and C who flanked him much more effective. He helped when they missed their contribution and there is no doubt on running plays he was a big key. It isn't just media hype you can see clips of how that regularly occurred.
Speculation about a WR instead of Nelson is just that. Nelson isn't being recognized without reason. And the high praise usually is accompanied by a disclaimer that the comments are a surprise to most, and recognizing the usual OG just doesn't have this impact. The guy is an outlier and freakishly good at this position. If the Colts had to play one of those waiver wire starters at G that they tried repeatedly for a couple of years instead, I think that WR would have found it very difficult to make any impact. No running game, more pressure on Luck.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2019 12:22:47 GMT -6
I usually have a lot of respect for point spreads because they represent people putting their money where their mouth is, as opposed to a lot of brainless media herd-thinking and bloviating. The spread does have meaning, but it also incorporates what the expected impact of all that herd thinking is. Protect the book.
As money goes one way or the other the spread changes to make the opposing bet more attractive draw in money on the other side of the equation. True enough it reflects the real probability of winning first, but the spread is also about the book making money whoever wins the game. And you just can't escape the impact on the public of those expectations created by the herd thinking.
In FB with the 7 points for a TD and EP possibly flipping the score so much on one play, it's amazing to me it works at all.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2019 12:30:13 GMT -6
The colts have played as well as anyone the last part of the season. Problem is every game will be on the road. I see they are a 2.5 point dog against Houston...However, in this case, the Colts are the favorites in my mind....they have just been playing better than the Texans.
Colts are probably even better than their record. That 1-5 start was deceptive.
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 1, 2019 12:50:34 GMT -6
"Nelson isn't being recognized without reason. And the high praise usually is accompanied by a disclaimer that the comments are a surprise to most, and recognizing the usual OG just doesn't have this impact. The guy is an outlier and freakishly good at this position. "
what actual evidence do you have for any of this? Can you show a single stat that suggests "The guy is an outlier and freakishly good at this position"? You know, some interior linemen go entire seasons without allowing a sack.
The course of the season does NOT support the idea that Nelson had a big impact....to the contrary. If it was Nelson, why wasn't the line better immediately? The course of the season strongly suggests Nelson had minimal impact.....certainly not #6 pick impact. The line remained a liability that had to be schemed around until the tackles got set. Nelson got on people's radar by being a top 6 pick, then people who didn't pay close attention to the Colts season assumed he must have been the reason for the improved line play. From there, herd thinking took over. You should really add a loud "Moooooo" whenever you repeat this stuff.
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Post by reevo on Jan 1, 2019 13:37:05 GMT -6
Sherm,
Not sure if this has been posted but I got this from ESPN.
ESPN Analytics is pleased to present a revolutionary new way of measuring the pass-block and pass-rush performance of individual NFL players.
Our new Pass Block Win Rate metric tells us the rate at which linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. Likewise, our Pass Rush Win Rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Our model of pass blocking harnesses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Top 10 G Pass Block Win Rate
RANK PLAYER TEAM PASS BLOCK
WIN RATE
1 Quenton Nelson Colts 88%
2 Trai Turner Panthers 88%
3 Rodger Saffold Rams 88%
4 Joel Bitonio Browns 86%
5 Shaq Mason Patriots 85%
6 Marshal Yanda Ravens 85%
7 Lane Taylor Packers 85%
8 Ali Marpet Buccaneers 85%
9 Andrew Norwell Jaguars 84%
10 A.J. Cann Jaguars 84%
Top 10 C Pass Block Win Rate
RANK PLAYER TEAM PASS BLOCK
WIN RATE
1 Brandon Linder Jaguars 92%
2 Cody Whitehair Bears 91%
3 Ryan Kelly Colts 87%
4 JC Tretter Browns 85%
5 John Sullivan Rams 85%
6 David Andrews Patriots 85%
7 Nick Martin Texans 83%
8 Mike Pouncey Chargers 83%
9 Rodney Hudson Raiders 83%
10 Corey Linsley Packers 83%
Top 10 OT Pass Block Win Rate
RANK PLAYER TEAM PASS BLOCK
WIN RATE
1 Andrew Whitworth Rams 92%
2 Bryan Bulaga Packers 92%
3 David Bakhtiari Packers 90%
4 Taylor Moton Panthers 89%
5 Duane Brown Seahawks 88%
6 Anthony Castonzo Colts 88%
7 Ja'Wuan James Dolphins 87%
8 Rob Havenstein Rams 87%
9 Mitchell Schwartz Chiefs 86%
10 Taylor Lewan Titans 86%
I understand your argument about taking a Guard at the 6th pick. Definitely unusual but I believe this guy along with a healthy Castanzo and Kelly gives the Colts the best offensive line they have had since moving to Indy. very difficult to quantify but a healthy Luck who is standing upright and a running game that is much better then what we have had in years sure makes Ballard
justified with the Nelson pick. Nelson is one piece but a very valuable one. I don’t think there is any doubt the kid has brought a nastiness and toughness the Colts have lacked, even during the Manning years.
With 100,000 million in cap space and 3 picks in the top 60 in this years draft put the Colts in a great position. If it were not for the Bears, Ballard would win the GM of the year award. The Colts are in good hands with Ballard and this coaching staff.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2019 13:45:15 GMT -6
"Nelson isn't being recognized without reason. And the high praise usually is accompanied by a disclaimer that the comments are a surprise to most, and recognizing the usual OG just doesn't have this impact. The guy is an outlier and freakishly good at this position. " what actual evidence do you have for any of this? Can you show a single stat that suggests "The guy is an outlier and freakishly good at this position"? You know, some interior linemen go entire seasons without allowing a sack. The facts are the accurately reported information about the draft boards in the first place, and actual performance as evaluated by professionals. I do not agree with you that this can all be dismissed as media hype. Nor do I find your argument that statistical information supporting the evaluation is missing.
There just aren't many stats for offensive lineman. So, I don't expect stats to be available to compare impact very well. OK, LT in particular seems to be a position where sack stastics can be attributed to that player and have some value in measuring impact. No question that differences there (in almost everyone's opinion) is valuable, but that's just not the whole story for linemen.
I do not even argue with your starting point, most people agree with your premise that an OG is not usually going to provide enough value to merit a high draft pick. But if I were you and basing my argument on ignorant media hype, think about it. If there were any ignorant bias involved, those ignorant media people would surely be influenced, but in the opposite way from what we see.
Whatever the hype and ignorant bias is, this is a guy who was at the top part of many teams' draft boards. And. The people saying he is an outlier are not just media hacks, but those who created draft boards in the first place, who are paid to evaluate talent for the teams. They have a track record which at any position or pick gives room for argument.
Watching actual video clips of performance might somehow be biased selection of plays or something. But when former pro players and coaches comment I give that a lot more weight than when some sportswriter who may never have played any position at that level comments.
The PFF site which creates statistical ratings which some indeed do argue about support the statement he is very good.
Bottom line, the game is just not about sacks and giving up sacks. Running plays count. VERY little expertise is required to see how well he performs on runs.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 1, 2019 14:02:44 GMT -6
The course of the season does NOT support the idea that Nelson had a big impact....to the contrary. If it was Nelson, why wasn't the line better immediately? The course of the season strongly suggests Nelson had minimal impact.....certainly not #6 pick impact. The line remained a liability that had to be schemed around until the tackles got set. Nelson got on people's radar by being a top 6 pick, then people who didn't pay close attention to the Colts season assumed he must have been the reason for the improved line play. From there, herd thinking took over. Why was the impact not immediate? I think do you might be right there to some degree. He had more impact as each game gave him more experience.
But that is exactly what you would expect. He was a rookie, there is a learning curve. Why would you expect him to look like a vet? Yet, he does now! How do you dismiss that?
Also. It's not entirely an individual sport, which means one of the great talents of linemen is to work together with others. Applies to all the positions. He was working with a cobbled together line initially. That made the whole line as well as his impact less then and more as the line became stable. A great wide receiver won't look all that good or have stats if he's working with a backup. Or on a team that runs the ball a lot, or has a cobbled together line protecting his QB.
What you cite as evidence of subsequent events to explain the line being better is partially true, but that improvement is also due to his getting up to speed. And that's why you wait to evaluate ANY player.
Besides, your argument is that media hacks are deceived somehow by ignorant commentary. But. What is true is that some players at some positions certainly are more visible and easier perhaps to recognize as having impact. Even a dull witted sportswriter can do it. When you have media who are looking for a story get surprised their intelligent sources are naming a lineman as an impact player they do notice it. They should listen to knowledgeable sources.
Your whole argument that ignorance explains the high evaluation probably cuts the other way from what you think it does. This isn't ignorant writers generating hype. It is coaching staff and former players and coaches. Why do you find them lacking credibility?
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 1, 2019 19:48:34 GMT -6
Oh, I see now. It was just a coincidence that the line improved when the tackle position was solidified rather than when Nelson started playing. Actually it was really Nelson who improved the line, but there was this delayed reaction effect. Got it.
Now if you'll please excuse me, I'd like to address Reevo's fact-based post and step away from your excuse-making for a moment.
So it seems pretty clear that Nelson is a high-quality guard. The question is....what is the value of that? In particular, what is the value of that compared to other players you might get at #6? I think somebody posted that he's allowed two sacks? I imagine that is good...but how good? How many sacks does an average guard allow? What draft capital do you typically have to give up for an average guard? It's my contention that an average guard probably doesn't give up many more sacks...if any. And that this stat is indicative of the marginal value of having a high-quality guard compared to having an average guard.
I think an offensive line is a case of "only as strong as the weakest link", given that a single poorly blocked defender can completely blow up a play. Therefore a line with five "5" players is stronger than a line with three "10" players and two "1" players, even though the second line has a higher average rating.
I think this is another thing illustrated by the Colts season and recent seasons. The key was not Nelson, but rather the surprising decent play from Smith and Glowinski. Especially Smith, as tackle is much the more difficult position. It's quite telling that there was apparently no thought of moving Nelson to tackle. Some of the film clips from earlier in the season show why that was. and note that no first round picks were burned in acquiring either Smith or Glowinski.
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