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Post by reevo on Jan 1, 2019 22:44:15 GMT -6
Oh, I see now. It was just a coincidence that the line improved when the tackle position was solidified rather than when Nelson started playing. Actually it was really Nelson who improved the line, but there was this delayed reaction effect. Got it. Now if you'll please excuse me, I'd like to address Reevo's fact-based post and step away from your excuse-making for a moment. So it seems pretty clear that Nelson is a high-quality guard. The question is....what is the value of that? In particular, what is the value of that compared to other players you might get at #6? I think somebody posted that he's allowed two sacks? I imagine that is good...but how good? How many sacks does an average guard allow? What draft capital do you typically have to give up for an average guard? It's my contention that an average guard probably doesn't give up many more sacks...if any. And that this stat is indicative of the marginal value of having a high-quality guard compared to having an average guard. I think an offensive line is a case of "only as strong as the weakest link", given that a single poorly blocked defender can completely blow up a play. Therefore a line with five "5" players is stronger than a line with three "10" players and two "1" players, even though the second line has a higher average rating. I think this is another thing illustrated by the Colts season and recent seasons. The key was not Nelson, but rather the surprising decent play from Smith and Glowinski. Especially Smith, as tackle is much the more difficult position. It's quite telling that there was apparently no thought of moving Nelson to tackle. Some of the film clips from earlier in the season show why that was. and note that no first round picks were burned in acquiring either Smith or Glowinski. I don’t think you are wrong. I know Rick Venturi has pointed out numerous times on The Fan that Castonzo getting healthy has been the key along with Smith. An argument can also be made that your interior lineman are more important for your pocket passers as they keep the pocket clean allowing guys like Luck to step up. Regardless, I am not sure how you can quantify the 6th pick and the value of Nelson. I think the injury to Cain early on really put more of a spotlight on skipping a skilled position in favor for Nelson. The good news is it looks as if the Colts have finally solved their atrocious line problem. The rumor mill keeps spinning with the Colts interested in Le’Veon Bell. It will be an interesting off season to say the least. |
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 2, 2019 6:59:36 GMT -6
I've been thinking and I have to credit Chuck Pagano for the Colts success this season. You see, it was just a fluke of timing that the colts didn't make the playoffs until this year. It was Pagano who built them into a quality team, and just a coincidence that they actually made the playoffs under Reich.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 2, 2019 9:38:06 GMT -6
Much of this discussion has concerned the General's overstatement of his case about NEVER drafting an interior lineman high in the draft. While a reasonable general rule, he went a bit overboard in derision of the Colts competence in the front office, and rejected a fairly high consensus that the pick was a bit dull, but defensible. Seems he still thinks that they should have ignored glaring needs on the line and building a team on a foundation of a good line to get more exciting play makers. There is a part of thread concerning Andrew Luck as well. Let's go back and look at the Sherm's prognostications: The colts roster plainly shows the effects of first round busts, one particularly idiotic trade, and...yes...burning multiple high picks on interior o-line. The playmakers at key positions we should have are simply not here....they are elsewhere It's all up to Luck Luck gets hurt- 3 wins Luck plays like average qb- 5 wins Luck plays more or less like pre-injury - 7 wins Luck has best qb season in NFL history- wild card spot And Moving now this discussion back to the planet Earth, it could happen that intelligent fans will move into root-to-lose mode as early as the end of this month. If the colts lose at Washington (they are 6 point dogs at the moment) AND lose to the Texans at home on 9/30...the season is effectively over. The other game this month is at Philadelphia, then you are at the Patriots on 10/4. However optimistic you might be, surely nobody sees this roster being capable of going from 0-5 to the playoffs. That would require something like a 9-2 run to end the season....ain't happening. And this closely reasoned rejection of expert opinion deserves note also, This seems to me like a case of smart, knowledgeable people making a mistake by out-smarting themselves. Ballard and the scouts really liked Nelson because he (supposedly) did things the typical fan doesn't see or appreciate. It's always appealing to feel like you know something the common person doesn't. They fell in love, not so much with Nelson, but with their own ability to appreciate him. This caused them to drastically over value him in the draft.
On the other hand, if you took somebody from, say, Sri Lanka, who had never seen an American football game before. They are likely to perceive that there is this big scrum of big, immobile bodies that happens in the interior line every snap, but only rarely affects the result of the play. They might well perceive that the players involved in this scrum are intrinsically less important than the players that are having a very obvious affect on the game by running around outside this scrum, throwing and catching the ball or chasing other players. No Sri Lankan would ever use the 6 pick for an OG. At any rate it's been a long season. Sri Lankan football theory seems in some doubt. Nelson still looks like a pretty good pick and Andrew Luck must have just had the best QB showing of all time.
Not sure how sack stats support any of these claims, but it has been more fun this year to be a Colts fan. I hope we agree on that, General! |
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 2, 2019 10:40:13 GMT -6
As a contrast, you should post quotes from everyone who WAS predicting a playoff spot from the point of being 1-5
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 2, 2019 11:07:44 GMT -6
As a contrast, you should post quotes from everyone who WAS predicting a playoff spot from the point of being 1-5 Good point, although I haven't checked the Kid's complete record. He's an inveterate optimist.
In any case it's been a fun year, and conventional wisdom has not applied to the Colts season. |
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Post by thebsukid on Jan 2, 2019 12:08:57 GMT -6
I never wavered...9-7 and possible playoff spot....pretty close.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 3, 2019 8:40:32 GMT -6
According to the General, it is all hype. A wasted pick. Incompetent front office.
But. If so this guy may have more ability to command media hyperbole than Donald.
On that last part, I am not sure it passes the Sri Lankan man on the street test.
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 3, 2019 9:57:38 GMT -6
If you are the #6 pick and highest picked O lineman, shouldn't it be expected that you are the top rookie O lineman? Does that somehow prove it wouldn't have been better to have a player at a more impactful position?
It's really incredible how slow-witted people are, how their perceptions are dictated by irrelevant things, how eagerly they adopt the media-provided opinions, and how they overlook facts right in front of their face. For example this Indy Star article. The headline and article are all about Nelson, but it you look at the data, you see that Braden Smith was rated only marginally below Nelson, played the much more difficult and important tackle position, and was acquired with only a second round pick (37th overall). If you look at draft equivalency charts, the #6 pick has over three times the value of the #37 pick.
The real story here is Smith...not Nelson. Smith graded out, for all practical purposes, just as highly as Nelson BUT AT A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT POSITION, and for a fraction of the draft capital spent. And to further underline this situation, the Colts line continued to be a liability when Nelson was added, but suddenly became a strength after Smith became the regular starter. By the way, although I regard the Nelson pick as a mistake, I wouldn't call the colts front office generally incompetent, seeing as how they picked up Smith and Leonard with consecutive second round picks. EVERYONE makes some draft mistakes.
Herd-following types are naturally going to be impressed by Indy Star headlines and viral videos and general hype. MOOOOOOOO! |
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Post by bsutony on Jan 5, 2019 11:19:53 GMT -6
I think that we can all agree that the Colts had a great draft, even if they drafted Nelson a little high. I can’t remember a recent Colts team with so many impactful rookies.
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Post by thebsukid on Jan 5, 2019 18:40:22 GMT -6
BSU Tony, I believe your post is right on the mark!
The front office, coaching, and players appear to have put together a great combination! Not only playoffs but a first round win!
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Post by realitycheck on Jan 7, 2019 17:01:36 GMT -6
All of the individual film I've watched of Nelson has been him just dominating d-lineman and if he gets to the second level, heaven help the LB or DB in his way. He has also brought a noticeable attitude that is contagious. The rest of the Oline has developed into a true unit. No doubt Smith has been a great grab as well but Nelson appears to be in a class by himself. Not many rookie Guards make the All Pro team. That is the absolute best of the best. I'm glad we have him and the rest. We finally have a team that can win in the trenches.
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 7, 2019 18:11:49 GMT -6
Herd-following types are naturally going to be impressed by Indy Star headlines and viral videos and general hype. MOOOOOOOO! Fooled all those all pro voters, and the pro bowl crowd too, most all not reading very many Indy Star headlines. All hype? Are you really so sure? |
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Post by williamtsherman on Jan 7, 2019 18:23:42 GMT -6
Are you watching a random, representative selection of film? Or film that somebody picked out to illustrate a point they want to claim? And what was that point?
Also, the pro bowl voting has all the rigor and integrity of the Miss America Pageant.
Maybe I'm nuts, but I'm still going to credit the offensive line's turnaround to the three guys who started playing at the point the turn around happened, rather than to the one guy who was playing while the line was still a liability. I think it's getting a little ridiculous how little credit these three have received compared to the Nelson hype phenomenon.
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jan 7, 2019 18:25:09 GMT -6
BUT AT A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT POSITION
I read a stat on the tweeters (can't find it now but it was from one of those stat aggregate accounts, PFF or ESPN Next Level Stats, etc. one of those) after the Colts/Texans game that on more than 50% of the offensive snaps in the Wild Card game, Watt, Clowney, or both were either lined up on the interior, or stunted to take on an interior lineman. I'll also remind you that the reigning (and likely back to back) DPOY is a tackle, not an edge rusher. Your over-simplification that the tackle position is the most important position due to "edge rushers" is a fallacy of tradition. Much like the NBA has moved away from the standard PG, SG, SF, PF, C to a more position-less game, so too has the NFL in terms of the front four on the D-line. Rushers are lining up in all manner of different positions to try to create mismatches and confusion. Gone are the days where the Freeney's and Mathis' of the NFL would sweep around the tackle every snap regardless of down, distance, or field position. The Colts ran for over 200 yards against the Texans, including a franchise playoff record 148 from Mack, and over 70% of those rushes started on the interior. Another little nugget. I'm not arguing the should they/shouldn't they for Q, as I don't think you're ever likely to change your mind, and I don't have much interest in trying to make an argument for/against. I'm simply providing an outlook that you may be slightly overstating your case on whether the tackle position is truly the most important position on the offensive line in today's NFL. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jan 7, 2019 18:36:08 GMT -6
Here's some hype. Or, is it just hype?
You've told me I should trust your eyes. Not headlines. What do you see here?
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