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Post by 00hmh on Jun 3, 2020 13:31:34 GMT -6
Positional value may not be so closely related to W-L as you assume. Kickers have LOW positional value. Colts kicking cost them a couple of games. Injuries to high value positions plagued the Colts. Defense is awfully important. See this article discussing the highest value QB position and how QB performance correlates to W-L.
Low positional value players on D add up to win games. OL players greatly improve the performance of high positional value offensive players. The Colts suffered both places due to injuries for key offensive players and failure to make stops or even slow down opponents at the end of close games. I'm betting that low positional all pro DL addition has significant impact and Nelson has much more impact this year. You'll no doubt argue it was all Rivers at the high value position. |
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Post by williamtsherman on Jun 3, 2020 14:07:06 GMT -6
OF course I will say that. In fact I already have been saying that the season hinges on Rivers. You have to really twist yourself in a knot to avoid realizing that
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Post by 00hmh on Jun 3, 2020 14:12:42 GMT -6
OF course I will say that. In fact I already have been saying that the season hinges on Rivers. You have to really twist yourself in a knot to avoid realizing that W-L is heavily dependent on the team being stronger than the sum of its parts especially on the defensive side of the ball. Offensive players at QB and WR get far too much credit for winning records.
Look at the link above for a statistical argument to that if common sense isn't persuasive.
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 18, 2020 9:51:59 GMT -6
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Post by 00hmh on Dec 14, 2020 8:57:45 GMT -6
How many games until the TV people get tired of showing the Nelson "highlights". Probably not many. They are too obviously of minor consequence. Nelson prevents one particular defender from ruining the play...and not even one of the opponents most dangerous defenders. Yawn. It's somewhat amusing to see how the announcers try to hype these clips up. Meanwhile, the colts have one decent player at the vital position of OT (who is injured) and a defense completely devoid of disruptive impact players. What is the "keep Luck upright" crowd going to say when the colt OT's allow the Jaguars' edge rushers 25 sacks?
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 14, 2020 13:57:34 GMT -6
Man, a lot of Wentz-to-the-Colts buzz today.
I see this like the Rivers move - I'm not crazy about it, but I recognize the Colts are the fundamentally desperate position of not having a franchise QB and not having a prospective draft pick likely to get one.
The colts will go into 2021 with SOME sub-optimal, desperation or near-desperation choice at QB: Wentz, getting older every day and totally immobile Rivers, upside gamble draft pick...etc. You may comment on how much you dislike one or the other of these, but there are no GOOD options I am aware of. |
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 14, 2020 14:02:56 GMT -6
How many games until the TV people get tired of showing the Nelson "highlights". Probably not many. They are too obviously of minor consequence. Nelson prevents one particular defender from ruining the play...and not even one of the opponents most dangerous defenders. Yawn. It's somewhat amusing to see how the announcers try to hype these clips up. Meanwhile, the colts have one decent player at the vital position of OT (who is injured) and a defense completely devoid of disruptive impact players. What is the "keep Luck upright" crowd going to say when the colt OT's allow the Jaguars' edge rushers 25 sacks?
I don't follow what Dakich is trying to say? |
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Dec 14, 2020 14:10:59 GMT -6
Man, a lot of Wentz-to-the-Colts buzz today.
I see this like the Rivers move - I'm not crazy about it, but I recognize the Colts are the fundamentally desperate position of not having a franchise QB and not having a prospective draft pick likely to get one.
The colts will go into 2021 with SOME sub-optimal, desperation or near-desperation choice at QB: Wentz, getting older every day and totally immobile Rivers, upside gamble draft pick...etc. You may comment on how much you dislike one or the other of these, but there are no GOOD options I am aware of. So what's your suggestion? Rivers hasn't been spectacular, but solid. The running game has taken a lot of pressure off him, and the receivers are starting to get in sync with him. Hilton is playing well, Pittman is developing nicely, even Pascal has improved substantially. The tight ends are above average, as a group. I'm ok with Rivers at QB. Wentz? I dunno. Not worth what it would cost to get him. I'm kinda wondering about Garrappolo. |
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Dec 14, 2020 15:04:51 GMT -6
www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/carson-wentz-18950/Carson Wentz isn't going anywhere. Philly can't cut him without incurring a massive cap hit, and it seems unlikely his trade value would be anywhere near what they'd want to get back. Not to mention I don't think the Colts would want to pay a guy 20M a year for the next 4 years after having really only one breakout season (even if it was with Frank Reich as the OC).
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Dec 14, 2020 15:07:11 GMT -6
Correction, I was just looking at his base salary. Wentz cap hit is going to be 30+M a year for the next 4 years. That's insanity.
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 14, 2020 17:38:57 GMT -6
Man, a lot of Wentz-to-the-Colts buzz today.
I see this like the Rivers move - I'm not crazy about it, but I recognize the Colts are the fundamentally desperate position of not having a franchise QB and not having a prospective draft pick likely to get one.
The colts will go into 2021 with SOME sub-optimal, desperation or near-desperation choice at QB: Wentz, getting older every day and totally immobile Rivers, upside gamble draft pick...etc. You may comment on how much you dislike one or the other of these, but there are no GOOD options I am aware of. So what's your suggestion? Well, I don't know. That's the nature of a fundamentally desperate position. The last two times the colts came up with a franchise qb it was via the traditional route of being absolutely terrible the right season and getting a legitimate #1 overall draft pick QB. I guess getting lucky with a lower pick is about all I can see. |
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Post by 00hmh on Dec 14, 2020 17:59:51 GMT -6
There is lower choice on the roster. He's not ready to beat Rivers today. But youth is on his side.
Not entirely reassuring to bet on long shots. We probably see Brisset move on, maybe another 2nd or 3rd round choice doubles chances.
Reich today quoted as saying Rivers has another year.
That's not great but he is doing reasonably well. As you say no easy completely satisfactory answer.
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Post by williamtsherman on Dec 21, 2020 22:28:47 GMT -6
I don't sense much local buzz about the colts. Lack of posts on this board is one manifestation of that. they are a 10+ win team in all liklihood heading to the playoffs.
Why is that? covid? Initial loss to the jags tuned everyone out? no marquee player? rent-a-QB?
It IS rational to think along the following lines: the colts are winning some games this year by wringing the last drops of productivity out of an old QB, and they Have no obvious way to put a quality player in the most important position on the field in the foreseeable future, so it would be silly for me to invest my attention and emotions in the colts at this point.
But the public doesn't always think that rationally, so what is up?
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Dec 22, 2020 7:14:21 GMT -6
It IS rational to think along the following lines: the colts are winning some games this year by wringing the last drops of productivity out of an old QB, and they Have no obvious way to put a quality player in the most important position on the field in the foreseeable future, so it would be silly for me to invest my attention and emotions in the colts at this point. That's the rock you build your fanhood on? I think you just described what's known in the industry as a "bandwagon fan". |
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Dec 22, 2020 9:03:39 GMT -6
I used to never miss a bsu or colts game. Life has gotten busy and i’m still watching at least part of every bsu bball or football games, but the colts fell by the wayside. I’m not a huge fan of professional sports in general. Grown men making boatloads of money while acting like babies doesn't really interest me. Sport is also one of the only businesses you are expected to consume regardless of the product quality. I’m a total fair weather fan when it’s purely business.
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