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Post by bsutony on Mar 11, 2018 20:50:56 GMT -6
Does the Big 12 really need it's entire conference in the tournament? It is frustrating when a team like St. Mary's can't get in because a team with a losing record in their conference takes a spot. The selection committee says that all wins and losses count the same, but there is no way a team that loses almost every game in the final two months should make the tournament. Oklahoma only got in because they have Trey Young.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 11, 2018 21:07:47 GMT -6
I thought Arizona was a terrible draw for Buffalo. Why are they a 13 seed? I was thinking 11, or 12. Arizona looked like a pro team Saturday night. I agree. Terrible matchup for Buffalo. Ayton at 7’1 is a terrible match up and a big time player. You can’t play the same type of game as the big boys when you are a mid major. Arizona is huge, athletic and can run. Buffalo is going to have to control the tempo as their guards, though they are good, will not get good looks going to the hole with the 7 footer lurking. Buffalo is going to have to shoot lights out to win. Upset lookers need to look at Loyola Chicago as they will be a tough out. Half court team that can shoot lights out. UB is a top 80 team. Arizona top 20. Their seed is about right. As good as they have looked at times, I am less blown away by them than some here. Toledo was in the game against them until the last minutes. Arizona is not Toledo. Their strength is at guard but as you say it's hard to out play the big boys with guard play. They do have enough athletes to play defense. Enough size to put up a fight. Still, those power teams usually have very good guards too, and always are better inside. Hot shooting and the big boy being flat and overlooking you makes upset possible with inspired play. Not likely.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 11, 2018 21:19:36 GMT -6
Does the Big 12 really need it's entire conference in the tournament? It is frustrating when a team like St. Mary's can't get in because a team with a losing record in their conference takes a spot. The selection committee says that all wins and losses count the same, but there is no way a team that loses almost every game in the final two months should make the tournament. Oklahoma only got in because they have Trey Young. It's not the losses. OU was losing to pretty good teams in conference. St Mary's SOS not overwhelming, Sagarin says two teams about equal. The "quality win, quality loss" crap gets bent out of shape by the good conferences where you play good teams at home in conference. But many ratings say St Mary's is the better team.
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Post by TakeMeBackto2008 on Mar 11, 2018 21:41:02 GMT -6
Oklahoma might be the most overrated athletic program in the country for both major sports each year. Granted, their football team showed up this past fall, I'll give them that, but many years they're always ranked about 10-12 spots too high and they often get rolled in their biggest games. Several years ago their basketball team was like 12-7 and ranked around 22nd or 23rd. Not sure if there are some OU grads at ESPN fueling the annual hype machine or what.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 0:11:03 GMT -6
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 5:34:01 GMT -6
Quadrants an attempt to improve RPI.
Of course it hurts mid majors, they play weaker schedules, and the quadrants build in SOS bias by starting with RPI.
OTOH, they are except rare cases better, and being in a big conference buys good schedule in conference among other advantages. Rich get richer.
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Post by frozenbaugh on Mar 12, 2018 6:07:22 GMT -6
Does the Big 12 really need it's entire conference in the tournament? It is frustrating when a team like St. Mary's can't get in because a team with a losing record in their conference takes a spot. The selection committee says that all wins and losses count the same, but there is no way a team that loses almost every game in the final two months should make the tournament. Oklahoma only got in because they have Trey Young. It's not the losses. OU was losing to pretty good teams in conference. St Mary's SOS not overwhelming, Sagarin says two teams about equal. The "quality win, quality loss" crap gets bent out of shape by the good conferences where you play good teams at home in conference. But many ratings say St Mary's is the better team. Do good teams lose 8 of 10? One of those losses was to a team that had a 4-14 conference record. They also lost to 3 other teams that had losing records within the conference.
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Mar 12, 2018 7:01:58 GMT -6
It's not the losses. OU was losing to pretty good teams in conference. St Mary's SOS not overwhelming, Sagarin says two teams about equal. The "quality win, quality loss" crap gets bent out of shape by the good conferences where you play good teams at home in conference. But many ratings say St Mary's is the better team. Do good teams lose 8 of 10? One of those losses was to a team that had a 4-14 conference record. They also lost to 3 other teams that had losing records within the conference. Re-direct in 3... 2... 1...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 7:15:23 GMT -6
Quadrants an attempt to improve RPI. Of course it hurts mid majors, they play weaker schedules, and the quadrants build in SOS bias by starting with RPI. OTOH, they are except rare cases better, and being in a big conference buys good schedule in conference among other advantages. Rich get richer. I don't know how much clearer the NCAA could be with regard to at large mid-major bids. Mid-majors need to schedule with that in mind. St. Mary's knew they would be good this year, but still for some unfathomable reason scheduled a mediocre OOC. Rhode Island tried to schedule a home and home with St Mary's and offered to play this season in California, St. Mary's told them no.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 7:55:16 GMT -6
It's not the losses. OU was losing to pretty good teams in conference. St Mary's SOS not overwhelming, Sagarin says two teams about equal. The "quality win, quality loss" crap gets bent out of shape by the good conferences where you play good teams at home in conference. But many ratings say St Mary's is the better team. Do good teams lose 8 of 10? One of those losses was to a team that had a 4-14 conference record. They also lost to 3 other teams that had losing records within the conference. I am not really crazy about the pick either, but your argument is not quite as strong as it sounds. It's a close call. For interest and regional TV, I'd much prefer the Gaels in. The 4 teams with losing records were OSU,UT,Baylor, all 8-10 in the tough conference, and the weakest team they lost to was Iowa St. Only one of the games was a home loss. 2 of those teams had better Sagarin ratings than St Mary's, one equal. Only ISU worse. Iowa State was the 4-14, but played one of the toughest schedules in the country and had a Sagarin better than all but two other of St Mary's opponents in conference. St Mary's conference losses to San Francisco (much weaker, a worse loss) and to BYU on a neutral court (about the same as ISU on the road) and losses to Georgia and Wash St. on neutral courts were respectively about the same and a much worse loss. St Mary's probably really missed out by not sweeping Gonzaga, improving their record in that quadrant, and/or by losing to BYU. OU is strong enough to be a bubble team. Unfortunately that is also where St Mary's falls.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 8:13:17 GMT -6
Quadrants an attempt to improve RPI. Of course it hurts mid majors, they play weaker schedules, and the quadrants build in SOS bias by starting with RPI. OTOH, they are except rare cases better, and being in a big conference buys good schedule in conference among other advantages. Rich get richer. I don't know how much clearer the NCAA could be with regard to at large mid-major bids. Mid-majors need to schedule with that in mind. St. Mary's knew they would be good this year, but still for some unfathomable reason scheduled a mediocre OOC. Rhode Island tried to schedule a home and home with St Mary's and offered to play this season in California, St. Mary's told them no. Mid Majors cannot easily do the scheduling you suggest. Where is the incentive for big conference foes to line up to play the mid major that is known to have a good team that year? They don't need more good foes. Had they improved their OOC schedule and lost games then the increased SOS (or more games in better quadrants) would also feature more losses too. Assuming they want to decide their fate before conference season, the key would be to have several better OOC opponents not just one more. Finding 3 or 4 good opponents, maybe even 2 good opponents more is not that easy. Had they scheduled and won against Rhode Island, in hindsight they were so close that would indeed have helped. But had they lost... So, if it was a bad decision in hindsight, they did after all become the first team out, so it hardly a slam dunk decision to risk a disqualifying loss. They would also likely have made it in other ways. They needed to avoid a "bad loss" which seems to me a better bet, and perhaps to beat BYU. Or how about beating Gonzaga @home. Doing any of that likely puts them in too.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Mar 12, 2018 8:13:33 GMT -6
Quadrants an attempt to improve RPI. Of course it hurts mid majors, they play weaker schedules, and the quadrants build in SOS bias by starting with RPI. OTOH, they are except rare cases better, and being in a big conference buys good schedule in conference among other advantages. Rich get richer. I don't know how much clearer the NCAA could be with regard to at large mid-major bids. Mid-majors need to schedule with that in mind. St. Mary's knew they would be good this year, but still for some unfathomable reason scheduled a mediocre OOC. Rhode Island tried to schedule a home and home with St Mary's and offered to play this season in California, St. Mary's told them no. The travel costs can be prohibitive, unless you can schedule multiple games on a nationwide road swing. Just one game across the country doesn't make fiscal sense when you have a tight budget.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 8:17:40 GMT -6
I don't know how much clearer the NCAA could be with regard to at large mid-major bids. Mid-majors need to schedule with that in mind. St. Mary's knew they would be good this year, but still for some unfathomable reason scheduled a mediocre OOC. Rhode Island tried to schedule a home and home with St Mary's and offered to play this season in California, St. Mary's told them no. Mid Majors cannot easily do the scheduling you suggest. Just stop, Ball State ( a school with almost no profile except being an RPI killer) had a schedule good enough to garner an at large. You don't necessarily need to have a schedule full of Power 6 opponents. Good quality mid-majors ( top 100ish rpi) will get you the necessary power ranking and wins.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 8:22:11 GMT -6
I don't know how much clearer the NCAA could be with regard to at large mid-major bids. Mid-majors need to schedule with that in mind. St. Mary's knew they would be good this year, but still for some unfathomable reason scheduled a mediocre OOC. Rhode Island tried to schedule a home and home with St Mary's and offered to play this season in California, St. Mary's told them no. The travel costs can be prohibitive, unless you can schedule multiple games on a nationwide road swing. Just one game across the country doesn't make fiscal sense when you have a tight budget. It's called university commitment to build and maintain a quality program.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 8:24:56 GMT -6
Mid Majors cannot easily do the scheduling you suggest. Just stop, Ball State ( a school with almost no profile except being an RPI killer) had a schedule good enough to garner an at large. As I said above, St Mary's might well have suffered some additional losses on a tougher schedule too. A head to head loss against OU would hardly have helped, for example. The question is how many "good" games can you schedule to have odds to come out with a good record. And if you do, you are going to have a hard time comparing to a big school like OU with more chances to rack up those wins in conference without scheduling tough road games out of the box, which is risky.
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