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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Mar 12, 2018 8:25:18 GMT -6
The travel costs can be prohibitive, unless you can schedule multiple games on a nationwide road swing. Just one game across the country doesn't make fiscal sense when you have a tight budget. It's called university commitment to build and maintain a quality program. It's also called the definition of mid-major. Do you think WCC schools are getting a buttload of TV revenue, like the Big Ten?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 8:30:37 GMT -6
Just stop, Ball State ( a school with almost no profile except being an RPI killer) had a schedule good enough to garner an at large. As I said above, St Mary's might well have suffered some additional losses on a tougher schedule too. A head to head loss against OU would hardly have helped, for example. The question is how many "good" games can you schedule to have odds to come out with a good record. And if you do, you are going to have a hard time comparing to a big school like OU with more chances to rack up those wins in conference without scheduling tough road games out of the box, which is risky. Good Lord, if you don't have a good record after playing quality opponents you don't deserve an at large bid. What are we talking about here ?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 8:34:00 GMT -6
It's called university commitment to build and maintain a quality program. It's also called the definition of mid-major. Do you think WCC schools are getting a buttload of TV revenue, like the Big Ten? Is that why Butler and Valpo chartered flights when they were in the Horizon League ? I think we all know revenue streams are different.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 8:34:47 GMT -6
I don't know how much clearer the NCAA could be with regard to at large mid-major bids. Mid-majors need to schedule with that in mind. St. Mary's knew they would be good this year, but still for some unfathomable reason scheduled a mediocre OOC. Rhode Island tried to schedule a home and home with St Mary's and offered to play this season in California, St. Mary's told them no. The travel costs can be prohibitive, unless you can schedule multiple games on a nationwide road swing. Just one game across the country doesn't make fiscal sense when you have a tight budget. The idea of a long road trip leading to multiple good wins is a problem isn't it. BSU managed their "good enough" OOC schedule by accepting very unfavorable scheduling in the Phil Knight events. We worked hard to get into that. It was a good idea, halftime has a point that having a decent schedule will help. But only if you can rack up a few wins. We might have done that at Bucknell, but playing OU and Ore on the road in that stretch meant we were not likely to have a winning record in that event. Hopefully next year we can get a home game or win 2 of 3 similar games. To get an at large bid probably still means an outstanding conference season, AND don't forget we need another big win like ND. Mid majors are always going uphill for that 2nd bid.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 8:36:02 GMT -6
As I said above, St Mary's might well have suffered some additional losses on a tougher schedule too. A head to head loss against OU would hardly have helped, for example. The question is how many "good" games can you schedule to have odds to come out with a good record. And if you do, you are going to have a hard time comparing to a big school like OU with more chances to rack up those wins in conference without scheduling tough road games out of the box, which is risky. Good Lord, if you don't have a good record after playing quality opponents you deserve an at large bid. What are we talking about here ? We're talking about the better odds a big conference school has to do that. Including the other advantages not just the built in scheduling advantage.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 8:37:51 GMT -6
It's also called the definition of mid-major. Do you think WCC schools are getting a buttload of TV revenue, like the Big Ten? Is that why Butler chartered flights when they were in the Horizon League ? I think we all know revenue streams are different. Indeed, being the flagship athletic program at an institution and being able to commandeer budget, when you need to, does help doesn't it
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 8:43:56 GMT -6
Good Lord, if you don't have a good record after playing quality opponents you deserve an at large bid. What are we talking about here ? We're talking about the better odds a big conference school has to do that. Including the other advantages not just the built in scheduling advantage. Well no shit they have better odds, they have better teams. They should have better odds. Why are you making this an us vs. them thing. We are talking about scheduling for a possible at large, there is zero downside to playing a strong OOC schedule. St. Mary's blew it.
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Post by williamtsherman on Mar 12, 2018 9:33:35 GMT -6
Per KenPom's rankings (which I understand and believe in) St. Marys is the team that got screwed the most. But they are followed by Penn St, Louisville, Notre Dame and Baylor, so it doesn't seem too much like a mid-major thing.
Also Buffalo appears to be seeded more or less correctly at 13.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 9:46:45 GMT -6
You could also look at KenPom and make the argument Rhode Island is not only way over-seeded as a seven, but shouldn't even be in the Tourney. I don't remember a season when the RPI and various power rankings are this divergent on certain teams.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 9:47:37 GMT -6
We're talking about the better odds a big conference school has to do that. Including the other advantages not just the built in scheduling advantage. Well no shit they have better odds, they have better teams. They should have better odds. Why are you making this an us vs. them thing. We are talking about scheduling for a possible at large, there is zero downside to playing a strong OOC schedule. St. Mary's blew it. It is not zero downside. Since we don't know whether they would have won or loss to a truly good opponent or opponents, it had chances to pay off, and chances to cost them. I tend to buy the argument they should have scheduled Rhode Island if really willing to play on St Mary's home court. It is a close call though. St Mary's was very close to being in and easily could have qualified on the schedule they had if they had won a key conference game against Gonzaga at home. Or maybe BYU. Or avoiding a bad loss in conference. It really isn't a clear case. Besides, I was arguing more with your assertion that any good mid major can manage to schedule as you suggest. It's easier said than done.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 9:49:50 GMT -6
You could also look at KenPom and make the argument Rhode Island is not only way over-seeded as a seven, but shouldn't even be in the Tourney. There you go, knock out one mid major, let St Mary's in...at least we'd have the better mid major in the tournament. But that would be starting with power ratings of some kind not the RPI, however you try to improve it with adjustment in quadrants.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 9:54:25 GMT -6
Well no shit they have better odds, they have better teams. They should have better odds. Why are you making this an us vs. them thing. We are talking about scheduling for a possible at large, there is zero downside to playing a strong OOC schedule. St. Mary's blew it. It's easier said than done. For Christ's Sake, everything is easier said than done. Yet year after year mid majors get at large bids. Must be just luck, despite all the math involved.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 9:55:52 GMT -6
Per KenPom's rankings (which I understand and believe in) St. Marys is the team that got screwed the most. But they are followed by Penn St, Louisville, Notre Dame and Baylor, so it doesn't seem too much like a mid-major thing.
Also Buffalo appears to be seeded more or less correctly at 13. NCAA teams snubbedNotre Dame?They were screwed a little different way. When Rhode Island went down, the story is ND had been in the field. Afterwards somebody had to go, where I am not so completely clear on Rhode Island being so automatic...but this story points out the system also somehow favored Syracuse which ND actually beat, on the road, without their stars.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2018 10:09:39 GMT -6
Per KenPom's rankings (which I understand and believe in) St. Marys is the team that got screwed the most. But they are followed by Penn St, Louisville, Notre Dame and Baylor, so it doesn't seem too much like a mid-major thing.
Also Buffalo appears to be seeded more or less correctly at 13. NCAA teams snubbedNotre Dame?They were screwed a little different way. When Rhode Island went down, the story is ND had been in the field. Afterwards somebody had to go, where I am not so completely clear on Rhode Island being so automatic...but this story points out the system also somehow favored Syracuse which ND actually beat, on the road, without their stars. Rhode Island, hell how about St. Bonaventure's at large bid.
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Post by 00hmh on Mar 12, 2018 11:25:19 GMT -6
It's easier said than done. For Christ's Sake, everything is easier said than done. Yet year after year mid majors get at large bids. Must be just luck, despite all the math involved. Bad luck that RPI bias is the litmus test. And no bullet proof argument that somehow the scheduling decisions were the big difference. Or that such decisions are within the control of the school who had a strong team and nimbly changed their scheduling to enhance chances that year. In the bulk of cases the at large bids are because there are mid major conferences which have two or three (or more) teams strong enough to get 2 bids, partly because that makes their SOS better, but partly in spite conference SOS, the teams are just good enough to overcome it. The fact remains too that there are some major conferences where the mid level teams just miss despite their advantage in SOS, but because they can't win even at home against good teams, and that leaves room for mid majors, it's not principally because some mid major managed a good schedule. (And won the gamble winning some big game(s), perhaps winning a road game with a 3 pointer at the buzzer)
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