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Post by swenocha on Nov 19, 2018 14:50:47 GMT -6
One of my favorite analysis sites is TeamCast. Just noting some things about the last week, and way too early predictions about ongoing... - The three losses are currently ranked in their rankings at 14 (VT), 25 (PU), and 44 (Bama). - Those three teams are projected as 3 seed (VT), 6 seed (PU), and 11 seed and last 4 in (Bama). - BSU is picked 57th team out, FWIW - Currently they project a 19-12 (11-7) record going into the MAC tournament - Even with the above, they only show BSU as outright underdogs by their metric in 5 remaining games (at Loyola - 80%, at Valpo - 62%, at Toledo - 53%, at Buffalo -78%, and at Miami - 55%) - There are 7 near tossups in their metric however, and they give a 5-2 edge to the Cards in those in their percentages (at Evansville - W 53%, at Toledo - L 53%, at Bowling Green - W 55%, at Ohio - W 51%, at NIU - W 51%, at Miami - L 55%, at EMU - W 52%). However, to get to 19-12, BSU would actually need to go 1-6 in these (assuming other spreads held). Thus, they assume that the Cards will blow most of the near toss-ups. As they predict 5 non-con losses, that would mean that all of these losses would come from the conference games and the Evansville win would hold. - Only three losses remaining are not near toss-up based on their metric (At Buffalo, at Loyola, at Valpo) Yeah, this is utterly meaningless, but being a bored stat geek I found it interesting. I always find it interesting how these numbers hold up to reality down the road, and how they adjust ongoing as the annual swoon hits. Gotta do something to make up for the lack of NCAA tournament hopes...
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 19, 2018 15:11:12 GMT -6
Nice job. For more way too early simulations see: www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/ball-st-cardinals/projectionsOptimists will say we improve over current performance. Pessimists will say we're over rated now. Others will say no matter what, we SHOULD be better, after all we once had a stretch 20 years ago when we were, and I am sure a variety of negative opinion will be impressive. This is BSU, where fans live to suffer and not enjoy their teams under any but the very best results.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Nov 19, 2018 15:11:59 GMT -6
I love numbers your right though they rarely mean anything
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Post by cardfan on Nov 19, 2018 15:46:46 GMT -6
19-12, 11-7 in the MAC would be right up whits alley. But we’ll see.
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Post by thebsukid on Nov 19, 2018 16:30:50 GMT -6
I’m at 12-6 winning the West!!
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Post by sweep on Nov 19, 2018 16:53:29 GMT -6
I’m at 12-6 winning the West!! Holy Crap, have you backpedaled since last season. So are you sticking by your previous statement if BSU doesn't win the MAC this season it's time to look for a different coach.
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Post by cardfan on Nov 19, 2018 17:00:32 GMT -6
Winning the West is nice but we gotta do better than that.
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Post by thebsukid on Nov 19, 2018 17:00:34 GMT -6
I said I believe we’d go like 12-6 with 21 or 22 wins. Can’t remember as I’m getting old but I think that’s about where I pegged them.
What I did say this season is that we’d reach at least the MAC final short of making this I’d say the AD should evaluate and very possibly make a change.
However would BSU ever do that? I doubt it unless he’s at the end of his contract and I’m not sure where we are with Whit...what year of his contract?
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Post by sweep on Nov 19, 2018 17:13:22 GMT -6
Winning the West is nice but we gotta do better than that. Our current in conference SOS is 290. Winning the West isn't exactly a a big deal.
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Post by redbirdman on Nov 19, 2018 17:17:04 GMT -6
Here is the biggest problem I see the coach in close games. I really think it is all going to come down to Tayler Persons playing with the ball at the end of the games. We can win 25 or 19 but to me the sad part is it rests with Tayler not the coach.
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Post by sweep on Nov 19, 2018 17:20:08 GMT -6
I said I believe we’d go like 12-6 with 21 or 22 wins. Can’t remember as I’m getting old but I think that’s about where I pegged them. What I did say this season is that we’d reach at least the MAC final short of making this I’d say the AD should evaluate and very possibly make a change. However would BSU ever do that? I doubt it unless he’s at the end of his contract and I’m not sure where we are with Whit...what year of his contract? It runs through the 21-22 season (April 2022 expiration), so yeah he likely isn't going anywhere. Sandy signed this guy to a crippling contract extension.
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 19, 2018 17:58:34 GMT -6
Winning the West is nice but we gotta do better than that. Our current in conference SOS is 290. Winning the West isn't exactly a a big deal. But #11 in Sagarin power ratings. Surely the results more important than the schedule however computed
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 19, 2018 18:00:28 GMT -6
Winning the West is nice but we gotta do better than that. Yes How we do it and how we play is important.
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Post by realitycheck on Nov 19, 2018 18:49:25 GMT -6
Nice job. For more way too early simulations see: www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/ball-st-cardinals/projectionsOptimists will say we improve over current performance. Pessimists will say we're over rated now. Others will say no matter what, we SHOULD be better, after all we once had a stretch 20 years ago when we were, and I am sure a variety of negative opinion will be impressive. This is BSU, where fans live to suffer and not enjoy their teams under any but the very best results. Shouldn’t we open that garage door...the car is running. Noooo...it’s OK just breathe in and breathe out.
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Post by thebsukid on Nov 19, 2018 18:55:39 GMT -6
I’m not sure how are SOS can be 280 if that’s what I’m reading...Purdue, VT, Alabama....all top 50 teams
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