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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 21, 2021 19:16:41 GMT -6
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 21, 2021 19:29:43 GMT -6
NIU in the B12 would be almost realistic then. Except Illinois Higher Ed in even worse shape than most MAC states.
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Post by villagepub on Jul 22, 2021 7:19:50 GMT -6
NIU in the B12 would be almost realistic then. Except Illinois Higher Ed in even worse shape than most MAC states. I think the Big12 dissolves. Look for the Big10 and Pac12 going after Oklahoma State, Kansas and Baylor (the #3, #4 and #5 Big12 brands). Big10 could go after WVU as a consolation, or Texas Tech (Texas TV market). TCU gets you into DFW market. AAC will go after same teams. but has little to offer them. May have to settle for Iowa State, Kansas State. TCU could give them another DFW team. They'll finally become a "power" conference. If 16 teams is a sensible conference limit, you may see SEC drop Vanderbilt to add another power team like OSU or Baylor. Maybe the Big10 drops Rutgers to make more room for Texas. |
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Post by villagepub on Jul 22, 2021 7:30:18 GMT -6
Actually, think of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as Texas schools. 60-65% of their athletes are from Texas.
Norman is 3 hours from DFW. Honestly, it is easier for Texas kids to get into OU than it is UT.
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 22, 2021 9:00:51 GMT -6
The AAC certainly has the dream to become P5, and don't seem to accept geography as much of a barrier. But I agree with you. Only if the B12 folds completely would they have much of a shot at picking up the big prizes.
B12 can survive, diminished, without the advantage of of those two big schools, but they would still have Texas presence for recruiting. Still be a notch above the current G5. In fact, maybe the B12 would poach from the AAC rather than the other way gathering in the AAC schools that probably wanted to be B12 originally anyway. In terms of the B12 losing schools, WVU in the B10 might make sense, Kansas, maybe. And those other Texas schools might fit in a a super SEC. I can't see the B10 extending to Texas schools, except maybe Texas ($$$) since that would be geographic stretch and create travel and scheduling nightmares. Especially Lubbock... Same thing for the Pac10 adding schools that aren't at least Rocky Mtn or SW. You could have a coastal division and a East Division I suppose. If the P5 takes over FB which seems inevitable, 4 giant conferences, North(B10), South(SEC), East(ACC) and West(Pac10) makes some sense. That would also realign the BB powers. The G5 nibbling around the edges and in the ghettos would pick up a few prizes maybe. The "minor" sports are going to be shuffled around or cut where travel expense and scheduling will create more casualties whatever happens. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 22, 2021 9:15:35 GMT -6
NIU in the B12 would be almost realistic then. Except Illinois Higher Ed in even worse shape than most MAC states. Which leads to the question what would happen to the MAC in the shuffle. And more generally what happens to BB where they don't have P5 FB.
We could be stuck with NIU, but maybe in an alignment with other wannabe G5 schools.
If we lose UB, or any other school and if the MVC, USA, and other G5 conferences happen to lose schools, or in other scenario where the P5 rules and G5 schools lose spots on P5 schedules, we could see some consolidation in a new second tier grouping.
I can't see those schools able to ignore travel expense for all their sports and survive, would probably be more geographically contiguous.
Maybe we will see a new "G4" alignment, an East bloc, couple in the MW and a Western grouping. Any way you cut it, the MAC is not going to be big time. MAYBE we would be poaching schools now in D2 or FCS into some kind of new mega conference alignment.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Jul 22, 2021 10:36:21 GMT -6
Texas and Oklahoma to SEC.
WVU and Kansas to the Big 10.
Iowa State and TCU to the Mountain West, if they'll take TCU back.
Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas State to the PAC12.
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 22, 2021 11:03:44 GMT -6
Iowa State and TCU to the Mountain West, if they'll take TCU back. Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas State to the PAC12. That assumes this group can't attract a couple of teams and regroup. These guys a good core, and easily could keep KU in the fold. This WVU to the B10 makes some sense but the B10 is pretty snooty about academic stature. KU possible there, and even Vanderbilt from the SEC. If there was a P5 North conference, ND belongs there. Maybe then WVU, Cinn, even Louisville, UK, even Mizzou start to make sense. |
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 22, 2021 13:11:46 GMT -6
The B10 wants markets over school names. They want to expand the BTN and get more large TV markets that demand it to be carried in regular packages. For that reason alone I don't see the B10 wanting a WVU or a Kansas, at least not if they can poach some ACC members. My thought was Boston College, Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, something like that. Not only do they provide large TV markets in Boston, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and a bigger footprint in New York, but they provide some natural rivalries too. PSU/Pitt, BC/Syracuse/Rutgers, Lville/IU/PU.
I don't know what comes next, but reports are saying that next week OU and UT will send a letter to the B12 claiming they will not renew media contracts come 2025.
We've got 4 years of speculation and potential shifting, should be quite the rollercoaster.
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Post by rmcalhoun on Jul 22, 2021 13:27:06 GMT -6
The Ball is rolling
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 22, 2021 13:48:50 GMT -6
The B10 wants markets over school names. They want to expand the BTN and get more large TV markets that demand it to be carried in regular packages. For that reason alone I don't see the B10 wanting a WVU or a Kansas, at least not if they can poach some ACC members. My thought was Boston College, Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, something like that. Pitt is a good candidate. BC interesting. Louisville at least fits geography. With Rutgers in I can't rule out East coast, I guess. KU is the B12 school I see, they have Neb, Ill, Iowa and Minn. |
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Post by williamtsherman on Jul 22, 2021 20:48:06 GMT -6
NIU in the B12 would be almost realistic then. Except Illinois Higher Ed in even worse shape than most MAC states. Yeah, the big10 has always coveted the DeKalb TV market (which, you know, currently has no exposure at all to IL or WI sports) and the tens of rabid NIU supporters. That NIU to the big10 announcement is a matter of when, not if. By the way, everyone understood that the addition of Rutgers was an attempt by the Big10 to tap into the ginormous east coast media market. I was always pretty skeptical, although I assume they thoroughly studied the concept. But did this work? I don't know but it seems enough time has passed to make a judgement based on some marketing data. |
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 23, 2021 5:51:13 GMT -6
NIU in the B12 would be almost realistic then. Except Illinois Higher Ed in even worse shape than most MAC states. Yeah, the big10 has always coveted the DeKalb TV market (which, you know, currently has no exposure at all to IL or WI sports) and the tens of rabid NIU supporters. That NIU to the big10 announcement is a matter of when, not if. By the way, everyone understood that the addition of Rutgers was an attempt by the Big10 to tap into the ginormous east coast media market. I was always pretty skeptical, although I assume they thoroughly studied the concept. But did this work? I don't know but it seems enough time has passed to make a judgement based on some marketing data. You want to tell him, 00? Or should I? |
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Jul 23, 2021 5:51:50 GMT -6
Iowa State and TCU to the Mountain West, if they'll take TCU back. Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas State to the PAC12. That assumes this group can't attract a couple of teams and regroup. These guys a good core, and easily could keep KU in the fold. Looking at the G5, I don't know who they (meaning the remnants of the Big 12) would want to bring up. Cincy, Memphis and Houston? BYU? Nobody from CUSA, Sunbelt, or MAC... Iowa State TCU OK State Baylor Texas Tech Kansas State Cincinnati Memphis Houston Kansas WVU BYU That's not a bad league, but less than what it was. Marginal P5, with the same issues that it had before with getting into the CFP. |
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 23, 2021 5:58:06 GMT -6
That assumes this group can't attract a couple of teams and regroup. These guys a good core, and easily could keep KU in the fold. Looking at the G5, I don't know who they (meaning the remnants of the Big 12) would want to bring up. Cincy, Memphis and Houston? BYU? Nobody from CUSA, Sunbelt, or MAC... Iowa State TCU OK State Baylor Texas Tech Kansas State Cincinnati Memphis Houston Kansas WVU BYU That's not a bad league, but less than what it was. Marginal P5, with the same issues that it had before with getting into the CFP. Which is assuming they don't get picked apart by other conferences and can remain mostly whole. That'd be a good league but I think they'd have the same problems as the AAC, P5 in mind but G5 in results. Especially in football. |
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