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Post by villagepub on Jul 25, 2021 18:03:44 GMT -6
Good luck with that. Big12 does not have a desirable TV package. AAC would do better absorbing a portion of them. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 25, 2021 19:30:04 GMT -6
Newest rumor is merging the big 12 and pac 12 into a 20 team conference Can't see it. Too many teams creates scheduling issues. I agree. For almost all sports they would have to be two divisions because of travel and scheduling. How is that better?
For BB and FB there might be some case for "interdivision" play and a TV contract might be bigger than sum of the parts. I fear the B12 without those 2 teams they are losing sucks for TV.
But for a straight merger of all the schools, I am not sure the Pac 12 gets that much of out of it. The B12 schools don't bring in that big a TV market without Texas population. They could survive if they add the teams suggested above, but be diminished.
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 25, 2021 19:40:45 GMT -6
Texas is a real prize, I am surprised the PAC 12 isn't promising them the moon and that Texas should also not consider the B10 while they are at it. Yeah but Texas isn't near the prize OSU is, so the BIG 10 needs to make sure they can hold their conference together before promising anyone else a dime. Gutting the Big 12 is one thing, gutting the Big 10 is one hell of a scalp. There is a lot holding the B10 together. The B12 is a much more fragile target. Texas has always been at odds with others there. And several of those schools are not all that profitable. In the B10 almost all schools have a large alumni base and resulting TV interest, lowly IU still brought in BB money and most schools are in populous states with at least one large urban TV audience.
Texas may be a bigger prize in one sense, they would give any league that has Texas much better access to the recruiting in that state. SEC with two Texas schools and another school added in Oklahoma really wants that. From UT's point of view that is not such good news, they have a real advantage now they would be giving up, plus maybe losing their TV network. That last issue will be a part of the negotiations that take place wherever they go.
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Jul 26, 2021 6:08:03 GMT -6
The Big 10 isn't going anywhere. The BTN is a monstrous deal, they get several teams into each BBall tournament, a seat at every CFP... To think that it would disband is, frankly, laughable.
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Post by sweep on Jul 26, 2021 7:36:38 GMT -6
The Big Ten needs to throw an offer at both Texas and Oklahoma and see what happens. They need to appear like they are a player even if their offer is rebuked. The Big 10 can't offer anything the SEC doesn't except for possibly paying the Big 12 exit fees for both schools. It would be expensive, but in the long run it might be worth it, especially in staving off the possibility the SEC comes for your top programs in the near future.
If Ohio State decides for whatever reason to leave the Big Ten all hell is going to break-loose in that conference.
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Post by sweep on Jul 26, 2021 7:37:45 GMT -6
The Big 10 isn't going anywhere. The BTN is a monstrous deal, they get several teams into each BBall tournament, a seat at every CFP... To think that it would disband is, frankly, laughable. I agree but how monstrous are they without OSU and Michigan ? |
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 26, 2021 8:39:34 GMT -6
The Big 10 isn't going anywhere. The BTN is a monstrous deal, they get several teams into each BBall tournament, a seat at every CFP... To think that it would disband is, frankly, laughable. I get what you're saying and the BTN is monstrous, but the SEC isn't as far behind as we think. In 2020 the Big Ten reported $759mm in revenue which sent $54mm to each school. SEC reported $720.6mm and sent $45.3mm to each school. So the SEC is only about $9mm behind per school and that's before they add Texas and Oklahoma. Those two get added and the media rights deals will skyrocket. It is conceivable that the SEC passes the Big Ten in revenue pretty quickly, and then it becomes harder for the Big Ten to counter overtures from the SEC for their teams. Other than adding new teams to strengthen the Big Ten, the smartest thing they might do would be to redo the conference bylaws to make for a massive exit fee that is simply too large to be palatable for even the biggest schools. I don't know if it's possible but something like a $150mm exit fee plus paying back media rights could ensure that the conference stays whole throughout all this. Again I'm not sure if it's possible, but I do know we are in for a wild next few years. |
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Post by villagepub on Jul 26, 2021 8:53:29 GMT -6
I am wondering if WVU requests, and is granted, a slot in the ACC, if the ACC doesn't also extend to Cincinnati to join. Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati and Louisville could be a nice rivalry core.
I could also see the ACC pulling in UCF and their 72,000 students.
I can see the AAC truly going into scramble mode to gain ground on their claim to be a P5 conference, and also not lose ground.
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 26, 2021 8:57:22 GMT -6
The Big 10 isn't going anywhere. The BTN is a monstrous deal, they get several teams into each BBall tournament, a seat at every CFP... To think that it would disband is, frankly, laughable. I agree but how monstrous are they without OSU and Michigan ? What he is saying is that the BTN is a huge incentive to stay. And it is only one factor. Do they gain enough to really make it worth the costs of disrupting every athletic program they have?
For the top conferences to stay more or less intact become perhaps a P2 within P 3,4, or 5 makes more sense. The alternative of gradually taking FB out of the conferences and into some kind of P5 reorganization while leaving the rest of the sports intact makes some sense.
Just idle thought here, but I am wondering if once we take the NCAA completely out of the picture and disregard the competitive balance interest, there may be other antitrust issues left. There are two sections of the Sherman Act, one looks at practices that lead to monopoly and inhibit competition and strikes those down, one that looks at the resulting monopoly and breaks it up. You break up the NCAA and DO NOT keep competing strong conferences, you could see a problem. That's the history of the precedent setting dissolution of the NCAA monopoly on TV contracts, or Ma Bell, or Standard Oil. Too big is bad...It's why corporate mergers have to be examined by the DOJ.
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Post by chirpchirpcards on Jul 26, 2021 8:59:40 GMT -6
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Post by sweep on Jul 26, 2021 9:06:49 GMT -6
I agree but how monstrous are they without OSU and Michigan ? What he is saying is that the BTN is a huge incentive to stay. And it is only one factor. Do they gain enough to really make it worth the costs of disrupting every athletic program they have?
I don't disagree, my point is things like OSU and Michigan leavening happen because top conference officials believe it can't happen. They don't take the extra precautions to sure things up and remain aggressive. It happens in business all the time and it's a killer. |
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Jul 26, 2021 9:07:36 GMT -6
The Big 10 isn't going anywhere. The BTN is a monstrous deal, they get several teams into each BBall tournament, a seat at every CFP... To think that it would disband is, frankly, laughable. I agree but how monstrous are they without OSU and Michigan ? For football, sure there's a drop, but for basketball, not so much. But then look at travel costs. Can you imagine Michigan traveling to the deep south for every away game in every sport? It would skyrocket, and negate any possible gain in revenue (which I don't know there would be any). |
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Post by sweep on Jul 26, 2021 9:08:52 GMT -6
Now the only question is where do they go. I'd put about 85% on the SEC. |
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Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Jul 26, 2021 9:13:47 GMT -6
Texas and Oklahoma to SEC. WVU and Kansas to the Big 10. Iowa State and TCU to the Mountain West, if they'll take TCU back. Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Kansas State to the PAC12. I stand by this, except now I think there's a good chance WVU goes to the ACC. The Big 12 is as good as gone. They managed to survive the previous round of realignment, but the've been on the edge of extinction for too long. |
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Post by 00hmh on Jul 26, 2021 9:18:44 GMT -6
What he is saying is that the BTN is a huge incentive to stay. And it is only one factor. Do they gain enough to really make it worth the costs of disrupting every athletic program they have?
I don't disagree, my point is things like OSU and Michigan leavening happen because top conference officials believe it can't happen. They don't take the extra precautions to sure things up and remain aggressive. It happens in business all the time and it's a killer. Sure. Risk managers, lawyers and planners are disparaged and their advice neglected for short run profit. Assume everything will work well because you have dodged problems so far.
We agree on this.
My point is more that conference membership is a complicated and powerful contract with really good reasons to exist. It is not clear to me that the SEC deals are so beneficial to overwhelm that. In the B12 even where there is a dysfunctional union to start with, it's a lot easier to see that happening.
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