|
|
Post by 00hmh on Aug 3, 2021 16:43:35 GMT -6
Except....you don't win by running. My point is even that may not work, regardless of how well the replacement QB does. Not without LG, LT and C who are out injured. More likely the offense is really bad until then.
Once the QB is back and the line is back, they may be dangerous that last 10 weeks or so.
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Aug 15, 2021 14:54:22 GMT -6
Except....you don't win by running. The Colts managed a win against Carolina with their untested QB's. Not very impressive and meaningless scrimmage I agree. They may scratch out a few wins. I like the Texas QB, he is scrappy. |
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Aug 16, 2021 10:24:23 GMT -6
It's really striking how far the best NFL teams have moved away from running the ball, and the overwhelming importance of passing effectively. A lot of people have deeply ingrained, but completely outdated, ideas that prevent them from realizing this.
In TD passes rankings last year, you had 1) Packers, 2) Bucs, 4) Chiefs, 5) Bills. There are your four participants in the NFC and AFC conference championships.
And then if you look at rushing attempts, you have to go down to 12th to find the Packers, and the Bucs, Chiefs and Bills are all in the bottom half of the league. Keep in mind these are all good teams, who win most of their games, who therefore are most often ahead in the 4th quarter, and would thus have more incentive than the average to run.
So when you hear "you have to run the ball well to win in the playoffs" or similar, just nod your head knowingly. What you know is NOT that the phrase is true, instead what you know is that the person speaking is an idiot. |
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Sept 20, 2021 17:29:50 GMT -6
Apparently, Philly fans had become fed up with Wentz's frequent injuries and regarded him has hopelessly injury prone. You would have a very difficult time arguing with them at this point, wouldn't you?
There is a lot of randomness to injuries and people often want to see patterns where there really aren't any.
But in the case of Wentz, I have a theory that supports the idea of his injury proneness --- he is just mobile enough to get hurt. He has enough running ability to get him moving out of the pocket and sometimes downfield...as opposed to QB's like Rivers and Manning who did not even have that. But he doesn't have real NFL running ability or elusiveness and is a fairly large, easy target for tacklers, and thus takes more and worse hits. Maybe Andrew Luck also falls into this category.
On the other hand you have naturally gifted runners like Lamar Jackson or Russel Wilson who are constantly out of the pocket but seem to stay relatively injury free. Towards the beginning of Jackson first big season in 2019, I confidently told my kids that there was no way the guy would last the season. Too slight and runs way too much...will soon get killed. Clearly I was wrong, but I think I learned something. Likewise, Russell Wilson has started 144 out of 144 possible games in his career, even though he has often had terrible O lines, and is out of the pocket more than in.
|
|
|
|
Post by bsutony on Sept 20, 2021 19:42:54 GMT -6
It doesn't help that the O-line has reverted back to its Andrew Luck days.
|
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Sept 22, 2021 20:25:14 GMT -6
It's a bad, bad thing when your QB is the subject of random injury-proneness gags. Mike Tanier on Football Outsiders:
"MRI of Baker Mayfield's Shoulder Reveals No Structural Damage
However, Mayfield's MRI's did reveal damage to Carson Wentz's shoulder."
I mean, an ordinary QB with some bad luck in a particular week gets a bad ankle sprain that makes him misses some PT, or maybe even a start. Wentz sprains both ankles. For f---'s sake.
For reasons I mentioned earlier, I'm moving towards the attitude that Wentz really IS injury prone and will miss significant time every season and this will make his Indy tenure an all-in-all failure. Would love to be completely wrong about this and ...who knows...maybe I am.
|
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Sept 23, 2021 17:19:54 GMT -6
If you go into a season with a QB who has the recent injury history of Carson Wentz, and your best back up option is Brett Hundley, and then you end up playing a key division match up with Brett Hundley as your starter....can this be considered bad luck?
|
|
|
|
Post by universityjim on Sept 27, 2021 16:55:44 GMT -6
I expect Wentz to retire before mid-season.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Sept 28, 2021 8:40:13 GMT -6
Or we trade for Nick Foles.
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Sept 28, 2021 9:09:07 GMT -6
Or we trade for Nick Foles. That was always an option. I thought they would do it earlier.
They gambled and lost on the rookies. I wonder if the Texas rookie had not been injured if they might not have muddled through.
Eason is that cursed QB type, maybe something like Nate Davis. Great physical talent, probably will have any chance to be a factor only after literally years of coaching.
The vet they signed is only an emergency QB and to boot not similar to the starter, doesn't fit game plans. He is a cheap contract...but I did not understand the choice there, once Texas QB went down.
It's a little bad luck they got really punished when Wentz is injured, but Colts not exactly known for good luck with injuries...
|
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Oct 24, 2021 21:43:25 GMT -6
I expect Wentz to retire before mid-season. Seemed quite possible. Not now. |
|
|
|
Post by Lurkin McGurkin on Oct 27, 2021 12:20:35 GMT -6
Wentz is quietly having a pretty damn good season. It started rough, but he's put up really good numbers for the last several weeks.
As long as he can stay healthy (and has receivers to throw to!), he gives the Colts a good shot at winning against almost anyone.
Sunday against the Titans will be huge.
|
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Oct 27, 2021 12:45:10 GMT -6
I'm favorably impressed by Wentz as a competitor. As a QB though, I'm not sure he is any better than middle-of-the-pack. All in all he has so far been basically a lateral move from Rivers. His season stats are very much middle-of-the-pack, although it is reasonable to cut him some slack on the early games due to that preseason injury.
I guess I have two concerns with him
1) injury proneness. He is an athletic guy who runs with determination...much like Andrew Luck. He can really damage defenses with key runs here and there...much like Luck (and unlike Rivers). As such, he will continue to take a steady diet of hard, direct hits from defenders...much like Luck. Andrew Luck eventually....well, you know. The more elusive type running QB's (e.g. Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson) do not take so many direct hits, despite straying from the pocket as much or more.
2) middle-of-the-packness. Not sure he can consistently be much above average. That's fine for wild card contention or winning a shitty division, but a big liability for the team to overcome at the higher playoff levels.
Coming up big against TN would go far towards easing my middle-of-the-packness concerns, but I think the injury proneness concerns will be a constant. |
|
|
|
Post by 00hmh on Oct 27, 2021 14:02:43 GMT -6
Wentz is quietly having a pretty damn good season. It started rough, but he's put up really good numbers for the last several weeks. As long as he can stay healthy (and has receivers to throw to!), he gives the Colts a good shot at winning against almost anyone. Sunday against the Titans will be huge. Titans are playing very well. I did not expect them to be quite so good. |
|
|
|
Post by williamtsherman on Oct 31, 2021 10:39:37 GMT -6
On a neutral field, I would favor the Titans, in Indy, I slightly favor the Colts, without any real confidence. So, yeah, don't look to me for any advice on how to bet this one.
|
|
