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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Nov 16, 2023 18:28:53 GMT -6
The ESPN predictor has been bouncing around on this one but is now basically 50/50. I’m curious to see the spread. I think a loss here will tell us more than a win.
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Post by yorktowncard on Nov 16, 2023 19:11:34 GMT -6
I just can’t get past literally who is going to score. Jalin Anderson averaged 9.8 points per game last year and we are relying on him like he’s Allen Iverson.
I like Lewis but it seems like he’s gonna have to do this with smoke and mirrors this year.
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Post by david75bsu on Nov 16, 2023 19:26:19 GMT -6
I’ll go out a long skinny limb and say 67-63 Cards. Would be unusual, they have a huge home court advantage versus the Cards.
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Post by connecticutcard on Nov 17, 2023 9:16:54 GMT -6
I had trouble finding a H2H record, but believe this is the 57th meeting between the 2 schools (though most of them happened from 1942-1971). Pretty sure we are 2-24 on the road and 16-40 overall.
Using KenPom, based on 100 possessions, I show odds to be BSU by .5 points. It should be adjusted based on how many possessions you think they'll have. This implies a 52% of BSU winning (I used 3.5 points for Home Court Advantage). Given our history there, that might need to be adjusted upwards. I don't think the actual odds have posted yet.
This is the formula I've found somewhere and typically use: (AdjEM_A - AdjEM_B)*(AdjT_A + AdjT_B)/200
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 17, 2023 9:31:24 GMT -6
I've never understood the use of long term home/road records with given opponents for current day odds making. If you go back further than, say, 5 years, you are talking about a complete turnover of players and likely a complete turnover of coaching staffs, and possibly even an entirely different arena. How much carryover is there going to be in these situations?
I think it's probably best to simply use a standard college basketball home/away points spread adjustment, and only depart from that if you can identify specific factors that have carried over from previous games.
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Post by JacksonStreetElite on Nov 17, 2023 12:37:02 GMT -6
I've never understood the use of long term home/road records with given opponents for current day odds making. If you go back further than, say, 5 years, you are talking about a complete turnover of players and likely a complete turnover of coaching staffs, and possibly even an entirely different arena. How much carryover is there going to be in these situations? I think it's probably best to simply use a standard college basketball home/away points spread adjustment, and only depart from that if you can identify specific factors that have carried over from previous games. I'm still reeling from the 30 point loss we suffered down there in 1952. That's not the type of thing you can just let go. |
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Post by zonebuster on Nov 17, 2023 13:06:02 GMT -6
I just can’t get past literally who is going to score. Jalin Anderson averaged 9.8 points per game last year and we are relying on him like he’s Allen Iverson. I like Lewis but it seems like he’s gonna have to do this with smoke and mirrors this year. We've had four players in double figures each of the games thus far. I believe Anderson, Jihad, Pearson & Bailey will all average in double figures this year. We'll need the bench to develop and contribute 15-20 points per game by year end. Actually, I've been pleasantly surprised with what I've seen thus far with the turnover in our program. Due to youth of the roster, it will likely be and up-and-down season. But, as they say, come March there are no freshman as they all will have a year under their belt. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 17, 2023 13:08:52 GMT -6
I've never understood the use of long term home/road records with given opponents for current day odds making. If you go back further than, say, 5 years, you are talking about a complete turnover of players and likely a complete turnover of coaching staffs, and possibly even an entirely different arena. How much carryover is there going to be in these situations? I think it's probably best to simply use a standard college basketball home/away points spread adjustment, and only depart from that if you can identify specific factors that have carried over from previous games. I'm still reeling from the 30 point loss we suffered down there in 1952. That's not the type of thing you can just let go. Ball State schedule that year a back breaker. Lost twice to Wabash. Beat E'ville here at home 63-59. ballstatesports.com/documents/2023/6/27/MBB_Record_Book_Updated_Spring_2023.pdfSee page 47 |
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Post by chirpchirp1980 on Nov 17, 2023 13:11:19 GMT -6
I had trouble finding a H2H record, but believe this is the 57th meeting between the 2 schools (though most of them happened from 1942-1971). Pretty sure we are 2-24 on the road and 16-40 overall. Using KenPom, based on 100 possessions, I show odds to be BSU by .5 points. It should be adjusted based on how many possessions you think they'll have. This implies a 52% of BSU winning (I used 3.5 points for Home Court Advantage). Given our history there, that might need to be adjusted upwards. I don't think the actual odds have posted yet. This is the formula I've found somewhere and typically use: (AdjEM_A - AdjEM_B)*(AdjT_A + AdjT_B)/200 |
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Post by chirpchirp1980 on Nov 17, 2023 13:14:17 GMT -6
Check out their coaches bio on their webpage. 2nd year for the Purple Aces. He’s been at several quality programs with decent success. Also, this game looks to be very physical. They have numerous bigs. They also beat MAC opponent Miami.
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Post by williamtsherman on Nov 17, 2023 14:02:43 GMT -6
I notice they kicked Dick Stealy to the curb after that season. Of course, he went on to a successful career in porn. |
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Post by sdacardinal on Nov 17, 2023 14:58:12 GMT -6
Evansville message board picking the Aces 76-75. Remember Evansville and Jerry Sloan killing us in the Old Ball Gym
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Post by CallingBS on Nov 17, 2023 16:01:16 GMT -6
I've never understood the use of long term home/road records with given opponents for current day odds making. If you go back further than, say, 5 years, you are talking about a complete turnover of players and likely a complete turnover of coaching staffs, and possibly even an entirely different arena. How much carryover is there going to be in these situations? I think it's probably best to simply use a standard college basketball home/away points spread adjustment, and only depart from that if you can identify specific factors that have carried over from previous games. I'm still reeling from the 30 point loss we suffered down there in 1952. That's not the type of thing you can just let go. Right. Most of us were just negative years old when that happened. It still cuts deep into my soul. |
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Post by 00hmh on Nov 17, 2023 16:10:14 GMT -6
negative years old?
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Post by sdacardinal on Nov 17, 2023 16:35:52 GMT -6
I thought the clock started when we first emerged into fresh air. If the clock started an kept recording before we were born then when we are finally born we spend our lives getting back to zero and adding positive years. This is called life expectancy. It has taken some of us 80+ years to emerge from the negative side to the positive. Once we add up enough positive years the coach puts us on the bench and hopefully we get a pat on the head, an atta boy and a job well done.
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